IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Consumer Confidence Expectations Soar

Just as was reported on the 15th [Stat of the Day: Consumer Confidence Soars], the markets are again soaring because of good consumer news. This time its from the Conference Board which typically has more influence then the Michigan Survey on the 15th. Still the market should've expected a huge jump. The Index soared beyond estimates of 42.3 by a wide margin to nearly 55. What were those analysts thinking?

As the Michigan Survey showed, future expectations are soaring. Expectations were at 72 while the Present Situation came in at 29. So basically the Consumer Confidence number is going to continue to soar. Michigan expectations were at levels not seen since October 2007 and while not noted in this report I'd expect them to come close to that time frame. Its definitely higher then the number a year ago.

Retailers such as SHLD and TWB are soaring on this news while DKS is doing pretty good. Both SHLD and TWB are worth considerably more if the consumer returns.

  • The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index, which had dramatically increased in April, zoomed past economists' expectations to 54.9 from a revised 40.8 in April. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting 42.3. In February, confidence levels had hit a new historic low of 25.3.
  • The reading marks the highest in eight months when the level was 61.4. The levels are also closer to the year-ago's 58.1, though the widely watched barometer is still below 100, which indicates a healthy economy.
  • The Present Situation Index, which measures how shoppers feel now about the economy, rose to 28.9 from 25.5 last month.
  • the Expectations Index, which measures shoppers' outlook over the next six months, climbed to 72.3 from 51.0 in April.


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