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Showing posts from 2021

indie Semi: Ignore CFO Selling Shares

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  indie Semi guided to compelling growth in Q4'21 with strong growth forecast for the years ahead. The CFO dumping 200,000 shares was less than desirable considering the opportunity in the autotech space. The stock is attractively priced at only 6x '23 sales targets considering the large $2.6 billion backlog. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The autotech sector remains in its infancy while related stocks haven't fared very well in the public markets.  indie Semiconductor  ( INDI ) recently irrationally dipped back to the lows after the CFO sold a large position. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on the stock after falling back to $12, as the backlog continues to surge. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Jan. 28  Another SPAC beaten to a pulp offering steep value now. 

Blade Air Mobility: Poised To Fly Higher

  Blade reported FQ4'21 revenues topped 2019 levels by 28%. The urban air mobility company is poised to expand routes in the next few years to accelerate growth. The stock only trades at ~2x FY23 sales targets while the business is poised to soar starting in FY24 due to EVAs. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Blade Air Mobility  ( BLDE ) remains the prime way to play an operating urban air mobility business. The company has an asset-light model allowing for a pristine balance sheet to quickly expand services over the next couple of years. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock below $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple: Warning Signs Everywhere

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  Apple continues to race towards $200 as multiple analysts hike price targets despite limited boosts to projected growth over the next couple of years. The average price target on Apple actually remains below the current stock price. The narrowing market breadth due in large part to Apple will lead to a larger market dip. The stock shouldn't trade at 35x forward EPS estimates despite all of the recent analyst projections. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » Day after day, analysts attempt to one up each other with higher price targets for  Apple  ( AAPL ). The tech giant already trades at all-time highs with a near peak forward P/E multiple despite the desire by analysts to suddenly hike price targets. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock at all-time highs while growth rates are set to cool. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position men

HEXO Q1 Earnings: Not A Great Path Forward

  HEXO reported weak FQ1 results for the period ending Oct. 31. The addition of the businesses of Redecan and 48North didn't improve the financials or move the company any closer to being cash flow positive. The stock isn't touchable with the senior debt overhang and another restructuring in the works. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.    Learn More » As with most consolidations in the Canadian cannabis space, the HEXO ( HEXO ) plan failed miserably. The LP acquired three separate businesses and cratered their stock in the process. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock following the collapse below $1 and too much uncertainty surrounding the business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Stitch Fix: Too Prudent For Its Own Good

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  Stitch Fix disappointed the market with a big cut to FY22 guidance. The company cut back on marketing, while fixing an onboarding issue with their new Freestyle product. The stock is far too cheap at less than 1x FY22 sales targets despite the potential to return to 10%+ growth. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.    Learn More » Some of the issues hitting Stitch Fix  (NASDAQ: SFIX )  are self inflicted. The company remains in the early innings of growth, yet the online personalized shopping service pulls back from aggressively marketing the service regularly due to the holidays and to refine their new products. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on this stock after the massive dip from the meme stock peak earlier this year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SFIX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Jan. 6 The stock is so cheap that a $150 million share b

Macy's: Strong Execution Beats Financial Engineering

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  Macy's smashed FQ3'21 results as the company topped 2019 levels. The company upped FY21 EPS targets by over $1 to $4.66 per share. The stock if far too cheap at 8x FY21 EPS targets. I do much more than just articles at Out Fox The Street: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.  Learn More » Hedge funds might want  Macy's  ( M ) to spin off the e-commerce business, but the department store retailer just reported numbers supportive of continuing the current omnichannel business. As the company pushes more into a digital marketplace platform, the stock remains cheap. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on Macy's due to the fundamental shift in the business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long M. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. Update - Dec. 10  Macy's has seen a rather remarkable collapse in the last month. The Cowen is hardly more than pointing out the stock should rally back to p

MoneyLion: Overlooked Fintech Platform

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  MoneyLion has collapsed below despite the company meeting aggressive financial targets. The company has major plans to build a fintech super-app with crypto and BNPL products launching. The stock trades at a massive discount with growth topping 100%, while trading at only 2x 2023 sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The fintech sector has just been crushed in the last month led by the recently de-SPACed deals like   MoneyLion  (NYSE: ML ) . The company spent this year boosting future financial targets usually supportive of much higher stock prices. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock at the current reduced valuation while the long-term growth prospects remain strong. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - March 10 The stock price is near comical on these numbers. -Q4 record

Kohl's: Worth $75 Without Financial Engineering

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  Kohl's has activists wanting the company to spin off the e-commerce division to unlock value. The company already has plans to grow the business and activists have yet to show how a full omni-channel business can operate as two different companies. The stock is absurdly cheap at 7x EPS targets and Kohl's will repurchase over 15% of the outstanding shares this year. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.   Learn More » After an outstanding quarter with business booming,  Kohl's  ( KSS ) faces activists wanting to break up the business. The omni-channel retailer is facing the same pressure as other department stores to separate the e-commerce business in what amounts to financial engineering. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the retailer as the company reinvents the shopping experience. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long KSS. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.  Update -

Carnival: Not The Best Travel Bet

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  Carnival continues to rally when the market expects travel demand to rebound. The company is still operating far below full capacity and burning cash on a monthly basis. The stock doesn't offer the same value as certain airline stocks while holding more recovery risks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The cruise line stocks ended up 10% on December 6 due to reduced Omicron fears, but the sector should've been rocked by news of more covid cases on an actual cruise.  Carnival Corporation  ( CCL ) remains too risky compared to the airline industry for investors wanting a travel related investment. My  investment thesis  remains more Neutral on the stock due to the extra risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Dec. 28 More reasons to prefer the airlines over the cruise line

Ambarella: Wait For The Next Dip

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  Ambarella reported a solid FQ3'21 quarter with revenues growing 64%. The company increased the estimated 6-year automotive revenue funnel to $1.8 billion. Investors should wait for the next 20% dip with the stock trading at 20x FY23 revenues and only forecast to grow at a 20% clip. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Ambarella  ( AMBA ) shareholders have seen the stock surge in the last few months as the company has signed up several automotive chip deals. The stock was attractive on the last dip into the $80s, but Wall Street has again gotten too excited about the future of their computer vision chips. My  investment thesis  is again Bearish on the stock near $200 until the next major dip. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Jan. 25 The predicted dip has occurred. Now the question is whether $A

Twitter: Jack Dorsey's Departure Was Necessary, But Not A Definite Fix

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  Twitter CEO and Co-Founder Jack Dorsey steps down immediately replaced by the relatively unknown current CTO. The social media company is on the cusp of game-changing subscription services and could use a focused CEO. The stock is a buy trading at less than 6x forward EV/S, but the CEO change is no guarantee of immediate success. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The big market moving news of the day was that  Twitter  ( TWTR ) CEO Jack Dorsey  stepped down immediately . The stock is now down on the day, as the market probably wanted an external candidate or an outright sell of the business for a quick gain. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock looking for focused leadership to build out the subscription business to accelerate growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Dec. 7 Interesting deal b

WM Technology: Illicit Market Dilemma

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  WM Technology posted dismal results for the 3Q of 2021. The company has a promising cannabis marketplace and SaaS business too, focused on the California market impacted by illicit sales. The stock is appealing at $8 due to long-term 30% growth rates, but investors should watch from the sidelines until the stock and business stabilize. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The U.S. cannabis space has had a very tough few months and  WM Technology  ( MAPS ) now leads the pack with disappointing shareholders. The company was surprisingly hit by reduced demand in California due to a surge in the illicit market. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock over the long term, but WM Technology needs to find a bottom before shareholders buy more shares. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Upd