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Showing posts from 2021

Skillz: Wait For The Bottoming Out Process To End

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  Skillz has fallen all the way to $9 after initially soaring to $46 on hype surrounding fast growth. The company hasn't proven that high spending on marketing leads to better long-term economics. The stock has a more appealing valuation of $4 billion, but Skillz remains a falling knife to avoid for now. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » As with a lot of the original hot SPACs,  Skillz  ( SKLZ ) came out of the gate red hot based on massive revenue growth projections. Unfortunately, the market didn't fully research the factors driving those high growth rates. My  investment thesis  is far more Neutral on the stock now, but my view needs the company to improve user numbers before turning fully Bullish. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Oct. 6 Cathie Wood's ARK sold nearly 1 million shares on 10/5 when the sto

Ascend Wellness: Undiscovered Cannabis MSO

  Ascend Wellness remains an undiscovered cannabis MSO with very few followers on financial websites. The company has an attractive set of licenses including a deal to acquire the MedMen license in New York. The stock only trades at 8x '22 EBITDA targets despite estimates for revenues to double next year. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The cannabis space is now full of 2nd tier MSOs (multi-state operators) ripe for acquisition targets. Another example is  Ascend Wellness Holdings  ( OTCQX:AAWH ) that went public quietly back earlier this year. My investment thesis is very Bullish on the stock, but more proven opportunities exist in the U.S. cannabis market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Oct. 6 Good news for the NY license. -Meeting for the first time today, New York'

Nike: Holidays Are Toast

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  Nike reported strong results for FQ1'22, but the company guided to a dismal holiday season. The athletic apparel company cut the FY22 growth rates in half to only mid-single digits. Factories closed in Vietnam can't reopen in time to manufacture footwear or apparel capable of reaching North American markets prior to the holidays. The stock faces multiple compression along with flat EPS growth to where a 30x multiple (still aggressive) leads to a price target of only $107. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » The market was already over pricing the value of  Nike  ( NKE ) heading into their  FQ1'22 results  despite known supply chain issues with Vietnam factories closed due to COVID-19. Investors probably can't be blamed for looking past these issues after the athletic footwear company had soared past expectations in prior quarters. My  investment thesis  is ultra

United Airlines: Will Take Flight With Global Demand

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  The U.S. is set to reopen travel with the U.K. and the EU starting in November pending more details. Atlantic departures remain down 50% from 2019 levels providing some of the best upside to recapture 2019 traffic levels. Back in 2019, United Airlines had 43% of ASMs assigned to international travel. The stock is cheap as a reopening of Atlantic traffic is a big part in the airline recapturing the 2019 EPS levels of $12 in a few years. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While air travel demand cooled off during August, the regulations restricting international travel are on the verge of being relaxed.  United Airlines Holdings  ( UAL ) led domestic carriers in international travel prior to the COVID-19 restrictions on flying outside of the domestic market. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the stock after a big sell off leading into a reopening of international travel for the vaccinated. Read the full arti

Pinterest: Perspective Matters

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  Pinterest continues to trade near the lows of 2021 as user questions mount with the tough comps from the COVID-19 shutdowns. The social media platform has grown revenues by 50% in the last year and should maintain solid revenue growth due to higher ARPUs. The stock isn't cheap at 10x EV/S multiple, but investors should buy the company on a market induced dip. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The stock market can be a fickle place with a company valued based on the last quarterly results, not the normal growth rates of the business.  Pinterest  ( PINS ) is a prime example of a business that boomed during COVID-19 lockdowns and is now struggling with tough comps. My  investment thesis  is turning more Bullish on the stock after the excess valuations of early 2021. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Lilium: Future Of Regional Transportation

Lilium and Qell Acquisition completed the SPAC business combination last week. The SPAC was hit with 65% of SPAC shareholders redeeming shares, but the transaction still raised $584 million due to a large PIPE at $10. The stock is compelling below the $10 PIPE price for shareholders willing to ride the high volatility in the eVTOL space. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The recent closing of the SPAC deal between  Lilium GmbH  ( LILM ) and Qell Acquisition Corp. enters another public company into the electric air mobility space. The company is unique in its focus on developing an all-electric jet targeted on regional transportation, as opposed to the air taxi focus of other competitors. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock with the rally back to nearly $11, following the closure of the deal with other peer stocks trading below $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned

Blade Air Mobility: Flying Higher Long Term

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Blade Air Mobility has average analyst price targets forecasting a nearly 70% upside in the stock. The company plans to become the leading air mobility platform with an asset-light model requiring limited capex spending. The stock trades below the SPAC and PIPE prices despite having a cash balance of $333 million and strong revenue growth. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Prior to a bullish note by JPMorgan last week,  Blade Air Mobility  ( BLDE ) was the typical SPAC deal these days struggling to even trade above $10. The company has a promising future in the air mobility sector, but so many uncertainties exist from competition to the certification of future flying aircraft. My investment thesis is Bullish on the stock, especially once the excessive gains from last week roll back. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaim

Yext: Market Never Satisfied

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  Yext fell following a solid FQ2'22 revenue beat. The company continues to face headwinds in international markets due to covid, but Yext also guided up revenue for the year. The stock trades at a massive valuation multiple gap to other search providers that should close as growth rates reverse. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long YEXT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Oct. 15 Huge numbers from Samsung on switching to the Answers product from Yext. The stock trading at the lows makes absolutely no sense as the globe continues to reopen.  - Within eleven weeks of launching with Support Answers, Samsung experienced significant growth in every major customer satisfaction metric, increasing its Net Promoter Score (NPS) by 45%, Customer Satisfaction Score (CSAT) by 33%, number of resolved issues by 15%, and number of

Tilray: 250 Million Reasons Shareholders Aren't Happy

  Tilray continues to urge shareholders to approve Proposal 1 to lift the authorized share count to 990 million shares. The Canadian cannabis company has proposed a plan to boost FY24 (June) revenue to $4 billion while current analyst estimates are only $1.37 billion. Investors are rightfully balking at the company boosting the authorized shares by ~250 million when organic growth is preferred. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Tilray  ( TLRY ) had a huge day back in July following earnings as the Canadian cannabis company promoted a $4 billion revenue future in a just a few years. The enormous growth potential propelled the stock higher, but Tilray has to obtain these revenues via major acquisitions causing some heartburn amongst shareholders. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock due to the rich valuation and major M&A plans ahead. Read the full article on Seeking

ChargePoint: Low Quality Beat

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  ChargePoint beat FQ2'22 revenue estimates, but the losses are mounting. The company guided up FY22 numbers partly due to acquisitions. The stock still trades at an estimated 21x FY23 number leaving limited upside for the stock and reinforcing why venture funds sold 13.8 million shares. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » After  solid FQ2'22 earnings ,  ChargePoint Holdings  ( CHPT ) has seen a nice bump in the stock. Now investors have to confront the valuation divide and deal with the past insider sales likely leading to future sales on any stock rallies. My  investment thesis  remains very Bearish on the EV charging station stock on any rallies into the mid-$20s. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Sept. 8 Be cautious when analysts struggle to make the bullish case on expen