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Showing posts from July, 2021

Tilray: Same Tired Story

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  Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter. The Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany. The stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Before the market open,  Tilray  ( TLRY )  reported FQ4 results  to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 30 The stock is down another 6% possibly on this news of

Playstudios: Beaten Down SPAC Deal

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  Playstudios is one of the few SPAC deals to see substantial share redemptions. The stock has fallen to $6.60 despite strong growth and analyst price targets reaching up to $15.00. Playstudios trades at an attractive ~2x '22 EV/S targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » A whole list of companies completing SPAC deals are trading at prices below the $10 redemption price.  Playstudios  ( MYPS ) is another prime example with the stock collapsing following the closing of the SPAC deal last month. My investment thesis is bullish on the stock after the market negatively reacted to a large amount of investors redeeming shares at $10 despite voting for the deal. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 27 Playstudios hit a de-spac low below $6. The stock is still searching for the low

AEye: SPAC Weakness Ahead

  AEye should close the SPAC deal to become a public company during Q3. The lidar sensor company recently held a virtual investor day without any meaningful news on long-term contracts. Despite a strong future, the majority of the lidar stocks have broken $10 following the closure of SPAC deals. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The lidar sensor space remains highly competitive and complex with company after company going public via SPAC deals.  AEye  ( CFAC ) via the CF Finance Acquisition Corp. III SPAC is a promising company focusing on lidar perception software, but the stock is stuck around $10 following a Virtual Investor Day. My investment thesis remains bullish on AEye long term, but the stock is likely to dip below $10 once the SPAC deal closes this quarter. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for mor

Zoom: Desperate Move To Buy Growth

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  Zoom agreed to buy Five9 for $14.7 billion, or ~20x forward revenues. The cloud video communications stock is facing a tough year as enterprises return to the office and forecasted growth slows to below 20x. The stock shouldn't trade at more than 10x forward revenues. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The biggest worry with tech stocks that benefitted from the COVID-19 lockdowns was a normalization of business activity leading to a reduction in growth rates going forward. Zoom Video  (NASDAQ: ZM )  is a prime technology provider that blossomed in 2020 and faces tough growth comps going forward. The company made what appears a desperate move to acquire growth via the expensive deal to buy Five9  (NASDAQ: FIVN ) . My  investment thesis  remains bearish on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  August - 30 After

Goodness Growth: Forgotten New York License Holder

  Goodness Growth was lost in the shuffle following a name change and new growth initiatives. The MSO forecasts 2022 revenue of $140 to $180 million for a company exiting Q1 at a $53 million annual run rate. The company owns one of the 10 licenses in New York. The stock trades at only ~6x 2022 EBITDA targets, though a lot is unproven about that target. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Vireo Health International changed their name to Goodness Growth Holdings  ( OTCQX:GDNSF )  and the cannabis stock hasn't reacted very well to the new name. With the stock down to $1.70, the market valuation hardly exceeds the value of their license in New York. After this dip and the expanded focus of the business, my  investment thesis  is more bullish on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer position for more details. 

ChargePoint: Insider Selling Hints At Limited Upside

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  ChargePoint insiders have filed to sell up to 13.8 million shares. These selling shareholders will still control ~140 million shares after the offering, placing a cap on the stock until more selling is done. The stock remains insanely expensive at 17x FY24 sales targets. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » In no huge surprise, insiders are filing to sell shares of  ChargePoint Holdings  ( CHPT ) with the stock up substantially from the IPO and PIPE prices. The timing though is questionable since ChargePoint has recently fallen from the highs and took another 10% hit on the offering news. My  investment thesis  remains very negative on the stock and the EV charging station space due to weak financial results and ramping up competition. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 21 Big problem for other charging stati

ChargePoint: Insider Selling Hints At Limited Upside

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  ChargePoint insiders have filed to sell up to 13.8 million shares. These selling shareholders will still control ~140 million shares after the offering, placing a cap on the stock until more selling is done. The stock remains insanely expensive at 17x FY24 sales targets. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » In no huge surprise, insiders are filing to sell shares of  ChargePoint Holdings  ( CHPT ) with the stock up substantially from the IPO and PIPE prices. The timing though is questionable since ChargePoint has recently fallen from the highs and took another 10% hit on the offering news. My  investment thesis  remains very negative on the stock and the EV charging station space due to weak financial results and ramping up competition. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - September 1 ChargePoint reported solid Q2 re

Payoneer: Overblown Risks

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Payoneer dipped on a short report questioning their customer base. The company generated payments volume growth in excess of 60% in the last quarter based on e-commerce marketplaces. The stock is cheap based on trading at 5x '22 EV/S targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » A  short report  questioned the validity of the  Payoneer Global  ( PAYO ) payments customers just as the company completed a SPAC deal. The stock only slipped slightly back below $10 on what should've been a very negative hit on the prospects of a newly public company. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the gig economy payments leader, as the market only now starts learning about the stock.   Update - July 28 So another analyst says $ PAYO  is cheap and the stock drops 4%... perfect sense. Maybe a double bottom here.  Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Josh Siegler initiates coverage on the e-commerce payments platfor

Teladoc Health: Not Turning The Corner Yet

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  Teladoc Health has fallen ~50% from the highs as major competition enters the telemedicine space. Analysts have cut out year revenue estimates by substantial amounts. Despite the dip below $160, the stock still trades at a forward EV/S multiple of 10x. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Just this year,  Teladoc Health  ( TDOC ) traded as high as $308 and as low as $130. As analysts cut revenue targets for out years, investors have reduced their appetite for the telehealth provider. My  investment thesis  was very negative on the stock at the higher prices going back into 2020, but my view still isn't bullish on Teladoc Health below $160 due to the tough comps this year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 28 The large amount of analyst downgrades possibly created the bottom