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Showing posts from August, 2022

Freeport-McMoRan: China Will Roar Back

  Freeport-McMoRan now trades below a market cap of $45 billion despite delivering $12 billion in adjusted EBITDA over the last year. The copper miner is set to ride the wave of higher copper demand from China. The stock is cheap at current copper prices and only trades at 3x EBITDA targets for $5/lb copper. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Like most commodities, copper has been crushed over the last few months, sending  Freeport-McMoRan  ( NYSE: FCX ) down for the year. The global economic weakness centered on China sent copper prices down to 20-month lows, but the communist country is back in  growth mode. My  investment thesis  is ultra bullish on the stock after the dip due to the ultimate strong demand for copper. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Volta: Struggles Persist

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  Volta recently reported another quarter with large losses. The EV charging station company has an intriguing business concept, but the digital ad market isn't delivering the necessary revenues. The company faces a cash crunch while having an interim CEO and needing to hire a CFO. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While EV charging continues to garner more interest and government funding,  Volta  ( NYSE: VLTA ) still doesn't have a workable business plan for the short term. The company has lost most key executives despite what previously amounted to a promising business  model in EV charging stations. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral with the stock trading at $2 now, but Volta could keep falling. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positioned mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Sept. 28 Always crazy how fuels of the future neve

SoFi: Gap Closed, SoftBank Out, Load Up

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  SoFi Tech. closed the gap at $6.63 after trading above $8 following earnings. The fintech could benefit from an end to the student debt moratorium on August 31, but the business model no longer relies on refinancing student debt to prosper. The stock trades at just 3x '23 revenue targets which is incredibly cheap for a business growing at a 50% clip. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   In an amazing and surprising move,  SoftBank  ( OTCPK:SFTBY ) has followed through with unloading shares of  SoFi Tech.  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) pressuring shares lower. The fintech remains an impressive grower, but SoftBank has other reasons for unloading  the stock including  purchasing shares  in fellow fintech  Nu Holdings  ( NU ). My  investment thesis  is ultra-Bullish on an investor being able to load on the stock of SoFi with the gap from the strong earnings report officially closing. Read the full article on See

Kohl's: Throw Away Year

  Kohl's reported a mixed FQ2'22, but the company gutted FY22 guidance. The department store retailer only forecasts a FY22 EPS of $3. The stock trades at below 5x a more normalized EPS target when the macro situation improves. While hopes existed that the retail sector would maintain most of the sales from covid boosts, a lot of retailers outside of food and gas aren't faring very well.  Kohl's  ( NYSE: KSS ) is a prime example  of a retailer failing to match elevated profits from 2021 leading to the stock actually trading lower now despite improvements in the actual business during the period. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock trading in the low $30s, as investors just have to throw away the results for the rest of the year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclaimer: Long KSS. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

SoFi's SoftBank Gift

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  SoftBank has started selling sizable amounts of SoFi to raise funds. The investment fund still owns 83 million shares or 9% of the outstanding shares of SoFi. The stock has a gap down to $6.63, providing the ideal point to purchase SoFi. The business continues to improve with a shift away from lending products, while digital bank deposits provide the funding source unavailable at the likes of Upstart. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   When a great company is sold for a reason outside of the performance of the valuation of the stock, an investor is provided a gift. The market finds  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) in this exact situation with  SoftBank Group  ( OTCPK:SFTBY ,  OTCPK:SFTBF ) somewhat forced to sell shares. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on SoFi, especially if the stock closes the recent gap into the $6s. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No posit

Nikola: Bleeding Edge

  Nikola generally hit financial and production targets during Q2'22 setting the stage for the next phase of the business. The BEV manufacturer continues to burn $50+ million a quarter, quickly depleting current liquidity likely below $800 million now. The stock is a Buy once securing additional financing at favorable terms. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Most of the market probably doesn't even realize that  Nikola  ( NASDAQ: NKLA ) has started delivering BEV trucks. The company once appeared a scam to some, but new management has shockingly built out most of the original business  plan. My  investment thesis  is still Neutral on the stock due to the need to raise capital and obtain more truck orders to solidify the valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

SoFi Technologies: Strong Prospects Ignored

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SoFi continues to defy the stock market by reporting 50% revenue growth. The fintech is building a flexible financial platform with the capacity to switch growth drivers with the demand in the market. The stock is too cheap at less than 3x '23 sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The current tough economic period isn't slowing down strong companies and  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) falls right into that category. The fintech reported another strong quarter with robust growth and a solid addition of new members. The  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish after the former SPAC continues to thrive despite economic and political headwinds. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - August 3 SoFi is still cheap, even after a nearly 30% gain on the day. The chart doesn't show m

Roblox: Bright Future Needs A Pause

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  Roblox has rallied too far off the lows having doubled in only months. The company still hasn't turned around the monthly metrics with the last bookings level down nearly 10%. The stock is far too expensive back trading at near 10x forward sales targets. After a big rally since the mid-June low, Roblox ( NYSE: RBLX ) has clearly run too far for the current market realities. The stock needs a pause to refresh. My  investment thesis  remains bullish over the long  term, but the current stock view is much more Neutral with the gaming platform still struggling to top tough comps while the stock recently doubled from the lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Sept. 9 Interactive digital ads is a promising revenue model for Roblox. The stock has definitely hit bottom, but valuation becomes an issue at $50.  -Roblox stock (NYSE:RBLX) has tagged session highs, up 8%, as the company p