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Showing posts from March, 2022

Baidu: Delisting Fears Overplayed

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  Baidu faces a delisting risk due to the HFCA Act where U.S. regulators want access to Chinese audits. The company has 2 more years to meet audit requirements. The stock is exceptionally cheap at only 9x forward EBITDA estimates due to a massive cash balance. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Over the last month, the Chinese stocks have traded in a wild fashion due to fears the shares will be delisted from U.S. stock exchanges. The risks to  Baidu  ( NASDAQ: BIDU ) appear far over stated. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on the Chinese tech stock leading in autonomous vehicle technology, but Baidu definitely faces a volatile few years. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long BIDU. Please see the disclosure page for more details.  Update - Apr. 29 Big AV news for Baidu. The stock just isn't valued for this division.  Baidu ( NASDAQ: BIDU )   received   the first-ever

Nikola: Back From The Grave

  Nikola officially starts production of the Tre BEV. The EV manufacturer continues to hit milestones, not far behind original targets despite the corporate disruption in 2020. The stock isn't a buy until Nikola raises more funds and completes some initial deliveries of Tre BEV. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » After the  founder resigned  from his Executive Chairman position back in 2020 due to fraud allegations,  Nikola  ( NASDAQ: NKLA ) appeared in a dire situation. At the time, the EV trucking company faced allegations their truck didn't even drive. My  investment thesis  is turning more Bullish on this survivor in the burgeoning EV trucking sector after previously warning to wait nearly a year for better prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Tilray: Keeping Competition Alive

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Tilray formed a strategic alliance with HEXO in an odd move to help keep a top Canadian cannabis competitor alive. HEXO just reported another weak quarter where revenues missed expectations, but the company did cut the EBITDA losses. The stock remains far too expensive trading at over 10x actual cannabis sales while the competition in Canada remains fierce. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The biggest issue with the Canadian cannabis market has been too much cultivation leading to oversupply. The new  Tilray Brands  ( NASDAQ: TLRY ) has attempted to consolidate the industry with the acquisition of Aphria, but the sector continues to struggle as much as prior. The  new deal  to help keep  HEXO  ( HEXO ) in business keeps our  investment thesis  Bearish on Tilray Brands. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for m

Carnival: Multitude Of Challenges Ending

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  Carnival reported another difficult quarter due to the Omicron variant, but the cruise line is now a month away from operating at full capacity. The company forecasts turning EBITDA profitable within months and generating a profit in FQ3'22. The stock is exceptionally cheap with a clear path back to a $3+ EPS. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While  Carnival  ( NYSE: CCL ) didn't report a perfect quarter for the period ending in February, the cruise line is moving ahead towards a full recovery. The company is now on the verge of returning  to strong profits with full operations launching by May. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock while the market focuses too much on short-term issues, such as higher fuel prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - April 4  Carnival Cruise Line ( NYSE: C

Roblox: Struggle Will Persist

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Roblox reported more weak monthly metrics in February, with bookings down up to 4%. The gaming company continues to face tough comps in the key US & Canada market. The stock is more reasonably priced at ~5x '23 EV/S targets, but the business will struggle into the 2H'23. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.   Learn More »   Roblox  ( NYSE: RBLX ) continues to be hit by tough comps due to the Covid pull forward of the prior couple of years. The company released 2022 numbers suggesting key domestic users are still not returning to prior peak spending and usage levels. My  investment thesis  is now more Neutral on the stock, but the weak metrics will persist for months ahead. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - March 28 Gotta love these bullish analyst calls with a PT barely above the curren

Stitch Fix: Patience Required

  Stitch Fix has slumped to all-time lows on weak guidance for the rest of FY22. The online personalized shopping company is still struggling to effectively market their promising new Freestyle product. The stock is cheap trading at a department store type forward EV/S multiple. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Stitch Fix  ( SFIX ) has fallen to all-time lows after  cutting guidance  for FY22, yet the market is extrapolating current results too far into the future. The online personalized shopping and style service still has promising new products set to expand the total addressable market and profits. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock here below $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SFIX. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

LendingClub: Big Upside Ahead

  LendingClub has fallen back to mid-2021 levels despite boosting expectations dramatically in the last year. The fintech is only now working on expanding beyond a digital marketplace focused mostly on credit card refinancing. The stock is cheap with an EV of $1 billion while conservative net income is targeted at $140 million. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Despite great earnings reports,  LendingClub  ( NYSE: LC ) has pulled back to mid-2021 levels before some big earnings beats. The fintech is a far different business now with the digital banking license creating the opportunity  for an expanding banking marketplace. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock with the dip back below $20. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long LC. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Apr. 27 The market didn't want to listen, but LendingClub reported

Luminar Technologies: Guidance Doesn't Warrant A Big Buyback

  Luminar Technologies continues making progress towards launching series production of Lidar sensors. Unfortunately, the company only guided to 2022 revenues of $40+ million despite an order backlog heading towards $3 billion this year. The company unwisely spent $300 million in share buybacks despite being in a major investment cycle. The stock will likely trade flat until more analyst coverage and actual confidence in the order book turning into future revenues. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Luminar Technologies  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) continues to rapidly expand their Lidar sensor order backlog, but the market wants to see more actual revenues. Last year, the company launched a large stock buyback unwarranted based on 2022 guidance. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock until the market has more confidence in the business model and shifts focus to the order book. Read the full article on Seeking Al