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Showing posts from January, 2022

Hawaiian Holdings: Bucket List Travel Stock

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  Hawaiian Holdings predicts a robust return of international traffic this summer. The travel sector is expected to benefit from "bucket list" trips here soon, as travelers have been trapped to domestic trips for two years. The stock is cheap with Hawaiian holding a $2 to $3 EPS potential in the near term. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The airline stocks are trading at yearly lows despite signs the sector is headed to a fabulous 2022 following an initial slow start to the year.  Hawaiian Holdings  ( HA ) appears finally set to benefit from international travel returning to the islands after a period of very strict quarantine policies in Hawaii. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the airline trading near the COVID-19 lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Feb. 5   Hawaiian appears set to bui

Matterport: Digital Transformation Hiccups

  Matterport growth has been clipped, but the company maintains the long-term potential in digital spaces. The business is quickly shifting to subscription services and mobile apps to overcome some supply constraint issues. The stock trades at a more reasonable valuation with the forward EV/S multiple dipping below 10x. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » Within months, immersive realty play  Matterport  ( MTTR ) has fallen over 70%. The company has been an interesting play since going public in early 2021, but the stock valuation never worked until after this massive selloff. My  investment thesis  tilts more Bullish on the stock on this weakness below $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Feb. 16, 2022 Not what the market wanted to see. Can't imagine the people holding from $30 wh

Velodyne Lidar: Beaten To A Pulp

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  Velodyne Lidar has fallen all the way to $3 despite the company building a strong pipeline. The Lidar sensor space remains on a path for a huge sales ramp over the next few years. The stock only trades at ~1.5x more conservative '24 sales targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Velodyne Lidar  ( VLDR ) has been the poster child for failed SPAC deals. Since completing the deal in early 2021, the company has missed financial targets and ran into internal management issues with the founder. Despite all these issues, my  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock and the Lidar sector due to the business ramp on the horizon while the stock trades at the lows around just $3. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Mar. 7  Interesting to see the founder dumping shares after the ne

Kohl's Should Repeal Activists

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  Kohl's activists want the company to sale-leaseback up to $4 billion worth of real estate. In theory, the company could boost EPS substantially by repurchasing shares, but actual net income would fall. The stock is cheap at only 7.5x FY22 EPS targets while trading with a market valuation equal to real estate holdings. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Activists continue to circle at the gate due to  Kohl's  ( KSS ) being an extremely cheap stock. The company has very valuable real estate on top of a strong earnings stream which is why a group of activists are lining up to bid on the retailer. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on the stock trading at 7x FY23 EPS targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long KSS. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - March 21 Kohl's didn't provide much in the way of details on the bids to acquire

DocuSign: Follow The CEO, Not ARKK

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  DocuSign shocked the market back in December with a major warning for FQ4'22. The stock collapse has the CEO loading up on shares while ARK Invest has aggressively sold their much larger position. The company is back on a trend towards sustainable 25% growth making the stock valuation more appealing here at 10x forward sales. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While most of the high flying tech stocks have collapsed due to sales trends decelerating,  DocuSign  ( DOCU ) actually plunged on a massive guide down. The end result has been the CEO loading up on shares for the long term and an influential ETF dumping shares. My  investment thesis  is now Neutral on the stock until sales trends normalize. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Update - Jan. 24 Possibly not the lows in $DOCU yet, but this was the prescribed weak

Tilray: Numbers Keep Getting Worse

  Tilray reported another quarter of highly disappointing results, yet the stock again rallied initially on the numbers. The Canadian cannabis company missed analyst revenue targets by ~10%. The stock remains far too expensive at over 12x key cannabis and beverage revenues. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Tilray  ( TLRY ) jumped on FQ2'22 results that somehow impressed the market. The cannabis L.P. actually reported declining cannabis revenues and a meager EBITDA profit after ignoring certain costs that are starting to recur. My  investment thesis  remains negative on the Canadian cannabis stock, as the company fails to grow cannabis revenues. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Zynga: Disappointing Deal Value

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  Zynga agrees to be bought by Take-Two Interactive at a disappointing valuation despite the deal premium. The new entity proposes a company rivaling EA trading at a major discount to the gaming giant. The new Take-Two will have appealing 14% growth rates plus $500 million in net bookings synergies in mobile. The stock will trade at a FY23 EV/S multiple of 3.5x, which is a major discount to past multiples. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » For long-term shareholders, the  Take-Two Interactive Software  ( TTWO ) deal to acquire  Zynga  ( ZNGA ) for $10 per share is a disappointing valuation considering the stock regularly traded above $11 last year. For short-term traders, the 64% premium provides a good time to exit the stock after a rough last few months. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock after the massive hit to Take-Two Interactive takes Zynga down as well. Read the full article

SoFi: Back To Where It Started

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  SoFi is cheap with the stock trading a the de-SPAC lows. The fintech continues to make great progress towards approval on the bank charter that will save up to 200 basis points on loan costs and improve revenues. The stock is too cheap trading at ~10x original '24 adjusted EBITDA targets. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street. Learn More » Despite a very promising start,  SoFi Technologies  ( SOFI ) now trades back to where the stock traded at the time of the de-SPAC transaction last May. The fintech super app was a buy the last couple of times the stock fell below $15 and nothing has changed now.  My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on SoFi  now down at $13 following a nearly 50% dip after multiple trips above $24. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Mar. 14 Cheaper by the minute despite strong Q4'21 results and decent