Out Fox The $treet

Note: Main computer was without connection to the internet last week so I'm just now getting back to being able to post.  Interest poll results from CNBC on whether Obama should cancel his vacation due to the markets and economy or take it anyway. Surprised to see that 47% said he should cancel his vacation. Considering he tends to spook the market when he speaks wouldn't it be nice to go a week without his constant bashing of the wealthy? Of course, 53% of the voters want him to go on vacation or said it doesn't matter so maybe that's a sign that investors think the market would be better with him gone. At least a signal that him being at work sure doesn't help. Should President Obama Cancel His August Vacation? He should cancel his vacation 47% He should go on vacation 24% It doesn't matter 29% Total Votes: 13486 Not a Scientific Survey Results may not total 100% due to rounding

At every turn of this market rally from the March 2009 lows, investors have been very quick to head for the exits and brace for a correction. Unfortunately for the correction hopefuls, it just isn't likely to happen when  a majority of people are prepared for a correction. Corrections happen when a majority of investors are willing to buy the dips and hence nobody is left to buy forcing the market to keep going lower. According to this Fast Money poll over 60% of investors that responded to their poll question on May 31st are positioned for a June correction. Sure its only 4,700 investors, but its a good indication of the investor sentiment heading into June. The economic data has been weak of late, but it appears that most investors are already on the sidelines waiting for an event not likely to happen as only a limited amount of sellers remains. Are you positioning for a June correction? Yes... Greece non-starter, seasonally weak month. 62% No... global growth on good f...

Interesting results from this poll of the day from CNBC.com. Should the U.S. Have a 'AAA' Rating? Only 464 people votes so far, but a resounding 79% voted NO. So a majority of investors feel that the US shouldn't have a AAA credit rating. Lots of economists argue that the US won't ever default no matter the debt levels because we can always print more money. Regardless a AAA rating is reflective of an countries ability to repay debt and the more borrowed the more risk that has to exist. Personally I don't understand how an investor would buy US treasuries as if we could never default. It also highlight the continued issues with the credit agencies. They are just now downgrading the US to negative watch for a potential downgrade in two years. When everybody else seems to think they are already behind. Nothing new here as the agencies are very good at telling us what we already know. Any official downgrade would never happen until the media in general already a...

Calculated Risk had an interesting poll over the weekend showing how pessimistic people remain. Over 57% of people that voted in the poll expect a double dip recession which appears absurdly pessimistic at this point in the recovery. The only likely scenario to cause a double dip would be massive tightening from the FED. Until that happens, it doesn't seem logical to invest with that expectation. Now I think Calculated Risk is typical for internet blogs in that they tend to bring out the pessimistic people. This ratio though is off the chart. Only 2% expect a GDP growth of over 4% for next year completely going against history of substantial growth in years following serious recessions. Is that because the last 2 recessions were very weak on historical norms so people are expecting a repeat of recent norms? Or are the facts really suggesting an economy with sub par growth? Seems that the facts suggest a 4% growth so we don't really comprehend the rational for such negativity....

This is a pretty stunning result from a CNBC poll. While Stone Fox Capital has been claiming that the recession was likely over in the June/July time frame, this poll suggests that only 20% of the people on CNBC think the recession is over 3 months later. On a purely technical basis, the recession is clearly over as Q2 GDP will likely grow at a 3-4% level. I'd guess that the respondents to this poll follow the jobs market which is one of the biggest mistakes made my investors. The jobs market is a huge lagging indicator. The ability for companies to regain growth while still cutting jobs creates gains in margins leading to higher profits. Those profits lead to jobs growth. Not the other way around. Nobody hires people until they can make money with what they have. To us this is yet another bullish sign as investors still aren't convinced that the economy has turned even after the NABE calls the recession over. Did the NABE make the right call, is the recession over? * 2139 r...

It's always interesting to see what the sentiment of the active retail investors/bloggers is now that the market has had a 5% pullback. The market is just 1-2% above major resistance in the 870-875 level. Its unlikely a normal market would see a break of those levels after having such a hard time breaking above that level going back to October. Based on that I'd think at least 60-70% would expect the market to hold. After all, it was the inability to hold 870 that sent the market off the cliff all the way to 666. So what are the results? According the poll as of making this post, only 12% expect the market to bounce from here. So 87% expect the market to go lower. Now nearly half or 43% expect only a 10% correction which would be around 840 Thats pretty reasonable, but a full 45% expect a least a 20% correction which equals a new bull market and even worse 27% expect a return to the lows at 666. Extrapolating the results I'd likely guess that the 43% only expecting a 10% d...