Out Fox The $treet

Upstart Holdings, Inc. experienced a disappointing quarter, with AI model errors and analyst mistakes contributing to weak results and a significant stock decline. The AI lending platform misinterpreted macroeconomic signals, reducing loan approvals and missing revenue estimates despite strong demand and industry peers performing well. UPST stock now trades at a low valuation, around 4x 2026 sales and 16x 2026 EPS targets, making it attractive for value-oriented investors despite execution concerns. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Despite a good market,  Upstart Holdings, Inc.  ( UPST ) had a very disappointing quarter. The AI lending platform trades at the lows as the company was both hit by an analyst error and internal  mistakes. My  investment thesis  is Bullish on the the stock due to falling over 50% in the last few months, not necessari...

Update - Nov. 11, 2025 At the recent Investor Day, LendingClub outlined a medium term path to boost total loan originations to ~$20 billion. The fintech would finally top the prior peak levels and double current originations.  The stock is cheap at 12x '26 EPS targets. LendingClub has the opportunity to push financials and the stock if far higher levels. The biggest concern is that the company doesn't move fast enough.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Oct. 27 LendingClub delivered another strong quarter, beating Q3'25 estimates and driving shares to multi-year highs. LC's loan originations remain below bullish expectations, but a $1 billion BlackRock financing deal and higher marketing spend could drive future growth. The stock now trades at 1.5x tangible book value, but LendingClub is still cheap at only 12x 2026 EPS targets tha...

  Upstart reported another weak quarter in Q4 2022, and in particular guided to collapsing loan origination demand in Q1 2023. The fintech doesn't appear any closer to solving the committed capital issues, though this could provide a stock boost on the next up cycle. Upstart Holdings stock is expensive compared to fintech lending peers despite reporting large losses. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Just a couple of weeks back,  Upstart Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) announced plans to  lay off ~20% of their workforce  in a sign of how weak 2023 had started off. The fintech continues to  operate a flawed AI-driven lending platform very susceptible to cyclical lending practices. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on UPST stock despite Upstart trading near the lows, though the stock could become a good trading vehicle as the Fed moves to pause ra...