Out Fox The $treet

The Chicago PMI came in at a surprisingly strong 60.6 in October well above the 57.6 expected by economists. While this was only slightly higher then the 60.4 in September, it showed a strong jump in new orders to 65. Production was off the chart at 69.8 showing deep strength in the report. Market initially snapped back, but some slightly weak Michigan consumer sentiment data has weakened the market. Considering a strong September and October it wouldn't be surprising to see a sell the news scenario at the beginning of November. Though I'm slightly concerned that too many pundits are suggesting such a result. Looks like 1180 in the SP500 is crucial. Any breakdown would likely signal short term selling. Long term though, any selloff in November will be a huge buying opportunity. The Nov - Apr period of a mid term election is historically off the chart bullish. Only concern is that it usually comes after a weak Sept - Oct period setting up the rally after the elections. H...

This naturally has huge implications to the stock market from now until the November mid-term elections. The market will continue to rally in whats suppose to be a typical weak Sept - Oct period if the odds remain above 70% of the Republicans taking the House of Representatives. Intrade.com is the website where people bet their own money on outcomes such as elections. Right now you have to pay $72 to get $100 if the Republicans take the House. That's actually a lower % then I'd expect at this time. Anyway, as that number goes up the market will surely follow. Anything that pushes Obama towards the center that leads to him talking about business tax credits versus cap and trade taxes will be bullish. Below is the current chart. As they say, people putting their money on the line are likely a lot more accurate then people on TV spinning the results whichever way suits their employer. Something definitely worth watching.