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Showing posts from June, 2026

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Mobileye: Stuck In Neutral

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Update - June 16, 2026 Mobileye  seems very late to the robotaxi business. The  frustration over the last couple of years was the lack of leadership in the autonomous vehicle shift.  -Mobileye ( MBLY ) on Tuesday said it plans to launch its own autonomous ride-hailing service in a U.S. city in 2027, expanding beyond supplying self-driving technology to operating robotaxi fleets directly. -The company aims to deploy around 100 driverless vehicles initially, with plans to scale to about 17,000 vehicles over the following five years. Original article posted on Apr. 4 Mobileye Global remains in a transitional phase, struggling to capture leadership in the fast-moving robotaxi and autonomous vehicle markets. The company has a promising $24.5B eight-year revenue pipeline, but annual revenues remain stagnant near $2B, with 2026 guidance projecting flat to 5% growth. The recent $900M Mentee Robotics acquisition pushes MBLY into humanoid robotics, but the company faces formidable ...

Roku: New Highs, No Problem

Update - June 12, 2026 Not sure how the Roku OS works inside another media company, but a buyout could be a good opportunity to cash out on big gains. The stock wasn't overly cheap anymore.  -Roku Inc. (ROKU) soared 20% on a report that the streaming video platform is in discussions to sell itself. -Roku has been in talks with at least one US media company about a potential deal, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday, which cited people familiar with the matter. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 2 Roku, Inc. has surged to $125 as platform revenues grew at a robust 28% YoY clip in Q1'26, driving bullish sentiment. ROKU's business mix shift to high-margin platform revenue (now 90% of total) has yielded a 165% YoY jump in adjusted EBITDA. Management targets $5.5B in revenue and $675M in EBITDA in 2026, with free cash flow expected...

MP Materials: Rare Earth Powerhouse

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MP Materials Corp. leads rare earths mining outside China, with robust existing operations and ambitious expansion targets. MP targets $650 million adjusted EBITDA, driven by scaling NdPr and magnet capacity, with upside from higher NdPr prices and recycling. The stock is more attractive on dips to $50, equating to 15x EBITDA targets, though execution risks remain significant. MP Materials Corp.  ( MP ) is a leader in rare earths mining outside of China. The company already has a sizable business, but the stock has already reached levels with a similarly sizable valuation for the  opportunity in the near term. My investment thesis is more Bullish on the stock after the recent dip to $50 based on long-term valuation targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple: Tim Cook Exits At The Top

Update - June 8, 2029 Based on news out of WWDC 2026, Apple continues to fail to deliver a functioning AI experience for the iPhone. The Siri AI now plans to work with the Google Gemini LLM on a private cloud, but the system won't reach Beta testing until later this year.  Deepwater analyst Gene Munster  -Craig says Siri AI in beta later this year, which explains the sell off. Investors wanted it in September. That means the real version is likely early to mid 2027. Funny that the stock actually ticked up 0.5% on the "beta later this year" update given while it's later than what they wanted, it is at least a date that investors can focus on. The stock trades at 35x FY26 EPS targets while the company still has no real AI product.  Original article posted on Apr. 29  Apple Inc. faces a challenging transition as Tim Cook exits and John Ternus assumes the CEO role. The iPhone replacement cycle appears to be ending with the March quarter, raising concerns about future gro...

Nu Holdings: Market Skepticism Appears Off The Charts

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Updated - June 3, 2026 Nu Holdings  hit a new 52-week low on the CFO change, but the stock rebounded pretty big on the hiring of a 30-yr veteran from Visa. The stock was cheap when trading at $19, much less below $12 now.  -Nubank ( NU ) has appointed Rob Livingston as chief financial officer, effective July 13, 2026. -Current CFO Guilherme Lago will transition to special advisor. Original article posted on May 19 Nu Holdings reported Q1 revenues up 42% FXN to $5.3B, but the stock had a post-earnings dip driven by higher credit losses. The digital bank reported a credit loss increase attributed to seasonality and portfolio growth, not asset quality deterioration; NPL ratios remain stable. NU trades at a valuation far below its >30% projected growth, offering a compelling entry point amid market overreaction to credit risks. The stock trades at just 10x '27 EPS targets while the fintech has a major catalyst with the entry into the U.S. market. Looking for a portfolio of idea...