Out Fox The $treet

Freeport-McMoRan stock has dipped back to $40 with copper prices slipping back to $4/lb. Copper prices are set to rebound on a full China reopening and higher EV production levels. The stock will rally on higher copper prices while Freeport-McMoRan only trades at ~5x adjusted EBITDA targets. The China reopening has struggled to gain the expected steam due to an initial bout of high covid cases followed by the Chinese New Year.  Freeport-McMoRan  ( NYSE: FCX ) will ultimately benefit from the  surge in demand as the whole world throws resources into building EVs with high copper requirements. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the copper miner, as lower copper prices have weakened the stock price since the start of 2023. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Updated - Jan. 6 People not buying FCX  the last couple of months missed out big time. The copper miner appears headed to $50 and even $60.  Freeport McMoran ( NYSE: FCX )  +6%  in Friday's trading, placing it near the top of the day's S&P 500 leaderboard and capping an 11% gain for the week, as copper prices rise on hopes that China's efforts to  boost its economy  will improve demand for metals . Comex copper for March ( HG1:COM ) delivery recently  +2.5%  to $3.917/lb, while the most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended  +1.5%  to 65,060 yuan/metric ton ($9,460). Original article posted on Dec. 18 Green energy demand will continue to push copper prices higher over the next decade. Freeport-McMoRan is already highly profitable at current copper prices and the path appears for record prices above $5/lb in the years ahead. The copper miner could produce $12+ billion in EBITDA. The stock is cheap at o...

  Freeport-McMoRan now trades below a market cap of $45 billion despite delivering $12 billion in adjusted EBITDA over the last year. The copper miner is set to ride the wave of higher copper demand from China. The stock is cheap at current copper prices and only trades at 3x EBITDA targets for $5/lb copper. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Like most commodities, copper has been crushed over the last few months, sending  Freeport-McMoRan  ( NYSE: FCX ) down for the year. The global economic weakness centered on China sent copper prices down to 20-month lows, but the communist country is back in  growth mode. My  investment thesis  is ultra bullish on the stock after the dip due to the ultimate strong demand for copper. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Freeport-McMoRan continues to benefit from high copper prices despite the recent dip from levels near $5/lb. At $4.50/lb, the copper miner produces FCFs in the $8 billion range and EBITDA reaching $15 billion. The stock is too cheap with a market cap of just $54 billion with the bullish long-term demand trend due to EVs. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.    Learn More » Freeport-McMoRan  ( FCX ) fell to nearly $30 on fears of slowing Chinese demand for copper, yet copper prices remain sky high. At current prices, the copper miner is poised to generate billions of dollars in annual free cash flows. My  investment thesis  is Bullish on the stock in the mid-$30s, though investors should take some profits due to the historically volatile prices for the red metal. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  ...

Freeport-McMoRan continues to trade below $10 per share due to weak copper prices. The company doesn't expect full production for the Grasberg mine to return until 2021. The stock is likely to struggle as the company reports weak Q3 cash flows due to copper prices ending the quarter at $2.60/lb. Buy the stock below $10 for the rebound in 2020 and beyond. While  Freeport-McMoRan  ( FCX ) didn't hold $10, the stock still has substantial value at this level. Copper remains weak due to the U.S. trade war with China, but this trading skirmish won't last forever. The  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the future of copper and this stock, especially when one can purchase shares below an identifiable value at $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary - WhoTrades Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

As copper prices rebound, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) will soar back to previous highs. The stock hit near $20 last year as copper prices headed to the mid-$3 range before the Chinese trade war hit demand.

The amazing part of Freeport-McMoRan hitting new lows at $10 is that copper prices have held up relatively well at $2.70/lb. The company highlighted a position of solid cash flows with copper up at $2.85/lb. The recent weakness gets the copper miner closer to breakeven levels on a free cash flow basis, but all of the upside is in a trade deal with China that boost copper prices. Back above $3/lb, FCX starts generating up to $3 billion in annual FCFs. Much higher prices are all but inevitable as the market weakness derails new mines. Use this weakness for the ultimate entry point here for a stock with a market cap down to only $14 billion. The only problem here is that the stock could head lower. The chart shows a never ending downtrend.

Copper prices have rocketed above even the targets used in the copper miners' presentations. Freeport-McMoRan is highly cash flow positive at copper prices around $2.50 pound. The stock offers interesting value even after the huge surge in the stock price. The recent copper rally apparently caught most investors and analysts off guard. Analysts are either scrambling to upgrade the stock or discredit the rally. The long  misunderstood story  with  Freeport-McMoRan  (NYSE: FCX ) was that the copper miner needed higher prices in order to clear the debt issues. In reality, the current copper prices might be enough for the company to thrive. The question now is when to lock in gains. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Freeport-McMoRan missed Q3 analyst estimates. The copper miner made huge strides in proving the cash flow thesis. The stock trades at an attractive valuation now that cash flows are set to pay for debt reduction. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX )  spent the last year cutting capital expenses and reducing costs to improve cash flows. The biggest story in the next few quarters is to see whether the copper miner makes the necessary progress towards those solid cash flows and current copper prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Not too surprisingly, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has rallied while oil keeps plunging. Too many investors confuse the stock for the oil operations, but the company is still primarily focused on copper. The company will not only survive, but thrive if copper prices stay above $2/lb. At the current price of roughly $2.10/lb, Freeport-McMoRan should be free cash flow positive. As I highlighted in my last Seeking Alpha article, the risks of bankruptcy were largely overblown. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Freeport-McMoRan faces a tough road in 2015 due to cash flow concerns and low copper prices. The company has much better prospects heading into 2016 with better cash flows from reduced capital spending and the outlook for copper prices. The stock should remain a prime an investment target for 2016. The story for Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX ) continues to remain relatively simple. The stock will move in relation copper prices over the long term. As highlighted in Freeport-McMoRan: Focus On Copper Prices, Not Earnings , the miner obtains the majority of revenues and cash flows from the copper mines. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Considering the desire to reduce debt, it wasn't a huge surprise that Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) agreed to sell its valued Eagle Ford Shale assets. The slight surprise was the willingness for the company to continue spending large sums in the Gulf of Mexico. With the energy market going shale-crazy, the shift from hot shale assets to out of favor deepwater assets is probably a brilliant move. Not to mention, the assets appear to have similar reserve potential, yet Freeport will net approximately $1.3 billion after tax to repay a portion of its gigantic $20 billion debt load. Read the full article here . Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Considering the lingering issues in Indonesia, the best investors can say about the first-quarter earnings report is that Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) is thriving despite the troubles in that country. The company is facing export bans on about 50% of production at the giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia, but it didn't stop the copper and gold producer from achieving solid income and operating cash flow. Ironically, the company benefits from the reduced copper supply on the markets with mines in North America, South America, and Africa. Even more encouraging and important is that China demand remains robust, and European demand is finally rebounding. Read the full article here . Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

While signs existed last week that Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) was close to a resolution in Indonesia, the stock is going to have a much harder time overcoming the plunging copper prices due to China. As with most commodities, China is the engine that drives demand and ultimately pricing of copper. In the last few years, the Asian power has grown to account for roughly 40% of copper demand worldwide. Freeport-McMoRan is a leading global mining company with interests in copper, gold, and oil. The miner has a mix of mines throughout North America, South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia. The mix of commodities and geographic locations helps it overcome political issues in any particular country, but the one thing the company won't overcome is plunging copper prices due to weak demand in China. Read the full article here . Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details....

By all accounts, it appears that Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) is wrapping up any lingering issues with the Indonesian government. The stock fell more than $7 back in January on a decree by the government to impose a heavy export duty on unprocessed materials, including copper and gold. Freeport-McMoRan is a leading copper producer with global operations, though the largest mine is located in the Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia. Similar to Newmont Mining ( NYSE: NEM     ), the stock was affected by the government decree, though expectations were for a peaceful resolution. The stock remains down nearly $5, providing an opportunity for long-term investors willing to accept some of the global risk but also the rewards of a diversified portfolio of commodities. Read the full article here. Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

While the export tax issue in Indonesia gets all the press, the real reason Newmont Mining ( NYSE: NEM     ) continues to hit new 52-week lows is related to gold prices. Though facing the same issue in Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) has seen some bounce-back with a bigger focus on copper and oil. Both miners export a considerable amount of material from Indonesia and have so far failed to obtain export licenses or waivers on the new export tax. Back in January, the Indonesian government entered an order for punitive taxes for miners that don't process materials in the country. While Freeport-McMoRan has publicly discussed plans of potentially building a smelter, Newmont hasn't done the same. Read the full article here. Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Last week, the Indonesian Ministry of Finance announced a punitive tax on the export of ore concentrate mined within its country. Considering Freeport-McMoRan ( NYSE: FCX     ) operates a massive mining facility in the country that produces substantial copper and gold ore, the impact is very concerning to the bottom line for shareholders. The decree also impacts mining operations of Newmont Mining ( NYSE: NEM     ) so Freeport-McMoRan will have some extra help in lobbying for a reprisal of the proposed new law. For numerous reasons highlighted in the recent earnings conference call, investors shouldn't be so quick to dump the stock. Jefferies recently named Freeport-McMoRan a top franchise pick, and this the type of scenario where investors can pick up long-term winners at bargain prices. Read the full article here . Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The ability of copper to maintain prices above $3/lb caught most Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) investors off guard, including this one. Stubbornly high inventories at the London Metals Exchange, or LME, combined with subdued China demand for copper should've crushed the prices of the red metal used in all kinds of building materials from plumbing pipes to electrical wires. One key to investing is noticing when a thesis doesn't play out and attempting to understand and adjust to the reasons.   A prime reason for the stubbornly high price of copper could be investment demand in China, where people prefer to own hard assets versus cash in the distrusted banking system. Such investment moves wouldn't be listed in the inventories on the exchanges, but it could help support the price of copper. Read the full article here . Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The huge gains by Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( NYSE: FCX     ) over the last few months probably caught a lot of investors off guard. The company is a premier natural resource company, with a global portfolio of copper and gold assets, and significant domestic oil and gas resources. Somehow, slumping commodity prices for copper and gold haven't crushed the stock. In addition, the purchase of energy assets (with debt) isn't holding down the stock. So what is pushing it higher? It was beaten during the early parts of 2013 due to a merger that took away the focus on copper production and byproducts. Ironically, the stock has done better than copper focused producer Southern Copper ( NYSE: SCCO     ). Looking at large energy producers such as Chesapeake Energy ( NYSE: CHK     ), you can see a shift in sentiment toward more complex energy producers that happen to be laden with debt. Read the full article here . Disclosure: No ...

With questions regarding China's demand, most commodities collapsed in the last year but copper prices have held up relatively well. A couple of factors have contributed to the resilient prices of copper outside of the supply situation at the LME. For one, China's demand continues to grow at 10% per year while the country accounts for 40% of the global demand. The other is that new copper deposits haven't been found in decades. So while copper inventories in China and the LME have remained high over the last year, copper prices have maintained a strong stance above $3 per lb.One of the main reasons is that regardless of inventories, copper remains one of the most difficult commodities to mine and find new supplies. Read the full article here . Disclaimer: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.