Posts

Showing posts from October, 2023

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Innoviz: Recovering From Devastating Capital Raise

Image
Update - Oct. 31, 2023 Innoviz is seeing a nice bounce about a week after the company confirmed strong guidance for the 2H. The Lidar forecast Q3 sales doubling sequentially, ye the stock trades at all-time lows.  Original article published on Oct. 12 Innoviz Technologies Ltd. completed a capital raise below the market price, causing the stock to plunge. The Lidar company eventually needed more capital to fund its business, but the timing and pricing of the offering spooked the market. Innoviz has boosted its revenue forecasts and has potential for growth, but investor confidence has been reduced. As with all speculative growth stocks, the last couple of months have been brutal for  Innoviz Technologies Ltd.  ( NASDAQ: INVZ ), which didn't help their cause with an unwarranted (in my view)  capital raise , causing the stock  to plunge. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock, but Innoviz has a lot to prove in the quarters ahead. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Pinterest: Spooktacular Quarter

  Pinterest, Inc. reported record Monthly Average Users while smashing Q3 2023 targets. The company is generating substantial leverage leading to strong cash flows. The stock is cheap at only ~20x updated EPS targets for 2024, while the social commerce opportunity is still only in the early stages. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   While other social media stocks fell following Q3 '23 results,  Pinterest, Inc.  ( NYSE: PINS ) is soaring after reporting  good quarterly numbers . The social imaging company still isn't seeing the big benefits from social commerce, but  Pinterest is definitely back in growth mode. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock following the recent dip back to the mid-$20s. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Google: Not So Spooky

  Google reported strong Q3'23 results, beating analyst revenue estimates by nearly $1 billion. Google Cloud grew by 22% to $8.4 billion, but investors focused on the small miss in this segment rather than the big beats in other categories. The stock is cheap at ~13.5x EPS targets and a relative bargain to other tech giants. After reporting a generally strong quarter,  Alphabet Inc.  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ,  NASDAQ: GOOGL ), aka Google, has seen the stock collapse. The AI-powered Search giant disappointed the market with weakness in the Cloud sector, yet the results weren't so spooky. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish with Google trading down nearly $20 from the recent highs that weren't even above the 2021 highs, unlike other mega tech stocks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Rumble: Speculative Play (Rating Upgrade)

Image
Update - Oct. 19, 2023 The online video streaming chart has shown a noticeable improvement after dipping below $5. Rumble still needs to prove the company can leverage the higher spending to more viewers. As example, Russell Brand only has 1.72 million followers now despite pushing his Twitter follower base to Rumble.  Update - Sept. 28, 2023 Rumble has made a big bounce off the lows below $5. The stock got beaten down too far on irrational fears.    Original article posted on Sept. 26 Rumble Inc. stock has plummeted, making it an appealing buy for investors looking for an entry point. The platform's focus on free speech has not resulted in significant organic growth, with content creators only using Rumble as a last resort or when well compensated. The stock offers a better value at 6x '24 sales, which is cheap for the strong growth rates. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   As with any stock,  Rumb

Albemarle: Lithium Weakness Will Pass

  Albemarle has fallen to yearly lows due to lithium oversupply fears. The company failed on a bid to acquire Liontown Resources adding to the unwarranted negative on the lithium miner.  The stock is cheap based on long-term growth targets, placing the stock at just above 2x '27 adjusted EBITDA targets. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Lithium miner stocks have collapsed in the last month due to lower metal prices and fears of an oversupply, as some EV productions ramps have slowed down. Naturally,  Albemarle  ( NYSE: ALB ) has fallen to 52-week lows in the  process, in part due to a failed bid adding to the negativity around the company and the ability to meet financial targets. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the lithium miner, especially with the stock trading at the lows and the long-term supply dynamics unaltered. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position m

Arm Holdings IPO Is Too Hot

Image
  Updated - Oct. 18, 2023 ARM Holdings d efinitely shouldn't have a $65 price target. Shares of British chip design firm Arm Holdings ( NASDAQ: ARM )  fell nearly 2%  on Wednesday even as investment firm KeyBanc Capital Markets started coverage on the stock with an overweight rating. A team of analysts, led by John Vinh, said they believe that Arm, which was  spun out of SoftBank ( OTCPK:SFTBY ) earlier this year, will "increasingly benefit" from certain design trends in the semiconductor space, including rising chip complexity, due to compensating for the end of Moore's Law. "ARM stands to benefit as computing requirements across mobile, data center, auto, and IoT become increasingly more demanding and complex; this will only increase the industry's reliance on Arm IP, ultimately resulting in royalty rate expansion and market share gains," the analysts wrote. In addition to starting with an overweight rating, the analysts put a $65 price target on Arm,

Joby Aviation: Another Dip Opportunity

Image
Update - Oct. 10, 2023 Joby got hit with a shot attack on Tuesday. Since the stock was already down substantially from the highs, the short report issue is typically when the stock his the lows.  -Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) dropped 5% after a new short report from Kerrisdale Capital on the electric vehicle-take-off-and-landing company. -Kerrisdale, which is short Joby (JOBY), claims that the company is "years away from generating operating revenue" and doesn't expect it "will ever earn an economic profit," according to the short report on Tuesday.   Original article posted on Oct. 5 Joby Aviation, Inc. stock has dropped nearly 50% since June despite positive developments, making it an attractive investment opportunity at $6. The company has started flight tests with pilots on board, moving closer to FAA certification. Joby plans to develop a production facility in Ohio capable of producing 500 aircraft per year, further supporting its path to commercialization. T

Archer Aviation: Flying Higher, But Don't Chase

Image
Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Update - Oct. 4, 2023 Guess every dollar helps at this point. -Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) Wednesday said the U.S. Air Force provided the company with its first installment of nearly $1M on their recently announced contracts valued at up to $142 million. Original article posted on Aug. 21 Archer Aviation has seen a surge in stock market interest after attracting investments from key industry partners and investors. The company aims to launch eVTOL production and commercial services in 2025, with plans to deliver the first Midnight aircraft to the DoD in late 2023. The stock has an attractive valuation compared to the opportunity, but investors should buy weakness over the next 18 month crawl towards material revenues. In a sudden move,  Archer Aviation  ( NYSE: ACHR ) has become a darling of the stock market. The eVTOL aircraft manufacturer was nearly left for dead followi