Out Fox The $treet

  Update - Jan. 16, 2025 Biden's Admin. actions while leaving office will likely be ignored. Any Snap dip is a buying opportunity.  -The Federal Trade Commission has referred a complaint against Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) to the Department of Justice, according to a public statement made by the U.S. government agency Thursday. -The complaint against the Snapchat parent is connected to the deployment of "My AI" chatbot on the company's platform, which the agency alleges poses risk to young users. -The agency said that during its additional investigations on Snap for potential violations of the FTC act, it found reason to believe the company "is violating or is about to violate the law." It added that a proceeding is in the public interest, and as per procedures outlined in the FTC act, it referred the complaint to the Justice Department. Original article posed on Dec. 8 Snap trades near recent lows despite record revenues and a booming subscription business. The c...

Update - Oct. 29 Snap with another strong quarter. At $10, the stock trades like the social messaging play has no growth.  Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08  beats by $0.03 . Revenue of $1.37B (+15.1% Y/Y)   beats by $10M . Daily Active Users increased 9% year-over-year to 443 million Total time spent watching content increased 25% year-over-year. Update - Sept. 19 Snap making a run after a solid Partner Event with a focus on AI and A/R glasses. The stock could quickly close the gap to $13.  Originally posted on Sept. 8 Snap has fallen to multi-year lows despite strong sales growth and a promising subscription service, making it an undervalued investment below $9. The social messaging company reported 850 million MAUs and 432 million DAUs, with Snapchat+ boosting subscriptions to 11 million. The market is overly focused on volatile advertising revenue, ignoring Snap's potential $700 million in recurring subscription fees by the end of 2024. SNAP stock trades at only 3x forwar...

Update - Apr. 17, 2024 Congress spends a lot of time talking about a TikTok ban, but it just seems like talk. Snap is very intriguing here at $10 based on Snapchat+ with an outlier potential for the ban.  -Snapchat surged during Wednesday trading following news that the proposed bill forcing TikTok to divest from ByteDance or face a U.S. ban might get fast tracked. -House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to include the TikTok bill in a fast-track package that includes aid for Ukraine and Israel, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. Original article posted on March 27 Snap Inc.'s Q1 '24 guidance for DAUs and revenue fell slightly below consensus, but disappointed investors missed the progress on returning towards 15% growth. Snapchat+ is growing towards the 14 million target for the end of 2024 with an updated number for the end of Q1 providing a catalyst. The stock only trades at 4x EV/S targets, a discount to social media peers. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Member...

Update - February 6, 2024 Q4 numbers were solid, but the market isn't happy. Snap is down some 30% after hours despite guiding towards Q1 revenue growth of up to 15%. The stock is a bargain on massive weakness due to the strong move towards subscriptions.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.02. -Rev of $1.36B (+5% Y/Y) misses by $20M. -DAUs increased 10% year-over-year to 414 million Guidance Rev of $1,095 million to $1,135 million vs $1.12B consensus, implying YoY growth of 11% to 15%. -Snapchat+, our subscription service that offers exclusive, experimental, and pre-release features grew from 2 million to  7 million subscribers in 2023, and exited the year with an annualized revenue run rate of $249 million. Original article published on Dec. 21, 2023 Snap Inc. shares have doubled in the last quarter and have significant upside potential. The Snapchat+ subscription service has seen explosive growth, with the potential to quickly surpass $500 million in annualized revenue i...

Update - Apr. 28 Snap will figure it out. The dip is a massive opportunity with the stock trading back towards the October lows and Meta up nearly 200%. -Snap (NYSE:SNAP) has tumbled 18%, its worst decline since October, after a first-quarter earnings report that showed not everyone in the digital advertising world was recovering to start 2023. -Stock in Alphabet and Meta Platforms has rallied as investors processed signs of improvement in those ad businesses. The "haves" have done well this week; the have-nots ... have not. -Snap (SNAP) reported its first-ever decline in quarterly revenues, and while analysts at least saw that part coming, the fall was worse than anticipated: Sales slid 7% vs. an expected drop of 5%. Original article published on Apr. 24 Snap Inc. has made an aggressive move into AI chat, launching MY AI chat for all users. The social messaging company announced over 3 million subscribers to Snapchat+, offering signs of a building recurring revenue stream. S...

Update - Dec. 16 A defacto ban could slowly squeeze TikTok out of the US. Snap shouldn't be trading at the lows on this news.  -News is heating up on the "TikTok ban" front, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi weighing in on whether government employees should be able to use the Chinese-owned social app even as regulation of the short-video sensation ramps up in the federal and state governments. -After mulling the issue Thursday, Pelosi on Friday came out in support of including a ban of TikTok on government devices in the high-stakes government spending bill headed for a House vote, Punchbowl News reported. -It would pair with ban legislation that unanimously passed the Senate Wednesday, amid growing concerns that TikTok and parent ByteDance (BDNCE) could share data on American users with China. Original article published on Nov. 28  Snap has held $10 for months now, despite analysts turning less bullish on the stock. The social media company slashed $500 million in annual ...

  Snap reported a solid Q3, but the company guided to a potentially weak Q4 on some huge negative assumptions. The social media company now trades at only 3x sales with the market not accurately viewing the recent revenue slowdown in light of the massive growth the last 2 years. Snap reported strong 19% DAU growth providing a better signal on normalized growth. The stock is too cheap here with the panic sell off. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Snap  ( NYSE: SNAP ) just reported a solid quarter and guided to very conservative Q4 numbers, causing the market to run in fear. The social media company is oddly preparing for a hurricane by announcing another $500 million share buyback. My  investment thesis  is finally Bullish on the stock following a Bearish view since nearly $60 due to Snap trading based on pending doom I think is unlikely to arrive. Read the full article ...

Snap reported mixed Q2 results. The company guided towards highly disappointing Q3 DAUs at only 243 million. The stock is the most expensive in the social media sector and should be avoided without leading financial results. Snap   (NYSE: SNAP )  is amongst the cohort of technology stocks priced for perfection when the company is imperfect. While plenty of stocks trade as if the economy doesn't recover to previous levels, Snap trades at levels suggesting a return to strong growth in 2021, despite the company still forecasting a tough ad market in Q3. With the company still losing substantial amounts on a quarterly basis, my  investment thesis  remains negative on the stock up in the $20s with a market cap topping $40 billion prior to the earnings report. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

After a crazy rally to $18, Snap (SNAP) is finally coming back to earth in early October. Even worse for shareholders, the stock hit a double top as big competitor Facebook (FB) releases a new app targeted at their market. Whether or not Threads works long term is probably irrelevant to this stock story. The key is that Snap can't afford any more hiccups in their business model with the stock having a $20+ billion valuation with targets for adjusted EBITDA to still stay very negative. The Q3 guidance was for a $72.5M EBITDA loss. While in the process of still battling it out with the much larger Facebook, the stock trades at the highest P/S multiple in the sector. Throw in the BoA analysis that app downloads slowed in Q3 and the stock is likely headed back to the sub-$10 billion range. More commentary - WhoTrades Update - October 4 Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to an Equal Weight today with a $17 price target. No rally on a big rally in the market is a su...

Are these numbers good? For Q2,  Snap ($SNAP)  reported numbers that beat analyst estimates, but the social messaging company still had a free cash flow loss of $103 million.  With the after-hours rally above $16, the stock now has a market cap of $25 billion and trades at about 12x 2020 revenues. Investors are getting too aggressive on Snap with the company still burning massive amounts of cash for a company with less than $400 million in quarterly revenue.  More research: Snap: Irrational Respect More commentary on WhoTrades .  Disclosure: No position. Please  review  the  disclaimer  page for more  details . 

Snap (SNAP)   reports better than expected numbers, but the numbers are still very weak. The stock won't hold this rally.  Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.04 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $389.82M (+36.4% Y/Y) beats by $12.83M. DAUs - 186M vs 184M.  The key number is that Snap is still losing money and the guidance for Q1 is rather weak.  The social messaging service had negative FCF of $149 million and a similar net loss of $158 million.  When a company is losing a sizable amount, the stock won't hold gains based on beating estimates. Snap has to show a more legitimate path to profits, than the CEO saying it while the CFOs keep leaving. Another adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 of $150 million is another ugly start to another year.  Q1 2019 Outlook - Revenue is expected to be between $285 million and $310 million, or grow between 24% and 34% compared to Q1 2018. - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $(165) million and $(140) million, co...

If one ever wanted a sign that Snap ( SNAP ) isn't going to see a big rally, one only needs to review the contract of CFO Tim Stone that has decided to depart the company. Mr. Stone was hired away from Amazon (AMZN) to be the adult in the room and turn around the financials of the struggling social messaging company.

Snap (SNAP) is back above $6 in early trading despite a price target cut from Pivotal Research. Even at $6, Snap still has a market cap of $9 billion. -Pivotal Research has downgraded its take on Snap (NYSE: SNAP ) to Hold from a previous Buy. Analyst Brian Wieser has cut his price target to $6 from $8.