Showing posts from July, 2023

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Hims & Hers: Sell-Off Opportunity

Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Update - July 28, 2023  Cowen with a bull call on Hims with a price target of $11 after the stock recently traded at $12. Nice the greatest bull call, but it sure beats the short report.  TD Cowen initiated its coverage of the digital healthcare platform Hims & Hers Health ( NYSE: HIMS ) with an Outperform rating and a $11 per share target on Friday, citing a disconnect between the company’s prospects and the valuation. Noting that Hims & Hers ( HIMS ) is set to expand at over 78% CAGR in 2019–2023E, analyst Jonna Kim argues that the company’s $1.2B revenue target for 2025, indicating over 22% CAGR, "implies a significant slowdown." Update - July 13, 2023 Kinda of a joke short report on Hims & Hers today, any stock could face a 25% hit. Heck, we view Apple  as having the potential for 50% downside. The stock has bounced off strong support here.  -Hims

Upstart: Turning The Corner (Rating Upgrade)

Update - July 25, 2023 The AI rage is full speed ahead with Upstart during the last month. This doesn't look like a peak due to the BTIG upgrade, but a shareholder should be looking for an exit point.  Original article posted on May 11.  Upstart made a huge step in rebounding from the downward spiral the lending platform had been going on over a year. The fintech announced committed funding of $2+ billion crucial to a turnaround, but the company didn't provide any details. UPST stock is reasonably valued here at 3.2x '23 sales estimates that require considerable 2H growth to hit targets. Upstart Holdings  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) signaled a key shift in their AI lending marketplace, making the business model far more appealing. The big question now is the details on the new committed lending partners, but at least the  fintech has ended the downward spiral. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the stock following the big rally off the lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alp

Google: AI Boost Heading Into Q2

Google reports Q2 2023 results after the close today, July 25, with revenue growth reaccelerating to 4.4%. The internet search giant appears to be working with Apple Inc. on internal AI plans in a good sign Google Cloud will see strong growth. The stock remains cheap at only 14x non-GAAP EPS targets for '25 with additional upside of AI and further efficiency gains. One major outcome of the apparent  Apple Inc.  ( AAPL ) AI endeavor is a heavy reliance on  Alphabet Inc.  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ,  NASDAQ: GOOGL ), aka Google. The tech giant has invested heavily in AI tools over the last  several years and appears well-positioned with Google Cloud to benefit from surging demand for data center space. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on Google heading into Q2 '23 earnings after the close on Tuesday, July 25. Read the full item on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple: Playing Catch Up

  Apple Inc. is quickly working on an AI chat product to compete in the suddenly hot generative AI category. The tech giant is now playing catch-up against other tech giants in several key categories like AI chat and AR/VR devices. Apple stock is incredibly expensive at 32x FY23 EPS targets even as Apple continues falling beyond in AI. A constant negative thesis with   Apple Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) these days is that it is a business behind on new product development. The latest news of the tech giant entering the generative artificial intelligence ("AI") race appears to be another  sign of Apple being behind the leaders in another product category. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock while trading near all-time highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. Investor Day Disaster

Updated - July 11, 2023 Investors should use this opportunity to exit at the highs on AI hype.  Original article posted on June 28, Inc. disappointed the market with lack of long-term financial projections at 2023 Investor Day. The enterprise AI software company is only forecasting around 15% revenue growth this FY despite all the AI momentum. The stock already trades at 12x FY24 revenue targets, suggesting downside risk on failing to ramp up growth. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As discussed previously,, Inc.  ( NYSE: AI ) hasn't delivered on the artificial intelligence, or AI, hype while the stock has soared this year. The enterprise AI software company hosted  2023 Investor Day  last week and provided  limited financial detail to support the recent AI hype rally. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock after the dip back to the low $30s. Read the full

iHeartMedia: Thesis Intact

Update - July 10, 2023 The big iHeartMedia rebound continues with another 8% gain today. The stock appears set for a gap close to $7.  Original article posted on June 2  iHeartMedia, Inc. reported a weak Q1 2023, but the key adjusted EBITDA number beat guidance. The media company grew crucial podcast revenue at a 12% clip despite the tough ad market. iHeartMedia stock is priced for an economic collapse, while the company has been busy buying their debt at a discount. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The advertising market has been tough in the last year, but the bullish  investment thesis  in  iHeartMedia, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: IHRT ) remains intact. In fact, the stock has fallen all the way to $2.50 despite the company  still being on pace to throw off substantial cash flow in the years ahead to repay their large debt load. The stock shouldn't be trading at the lows, but the market has over-extrapol

Warner Bros. Discovery: Dumping CNN Won't Solve Problems

  According to deal chatter, CNN is still valued at $10 billion despite challenging viewer numbers. Warner Bros. obtains the majority of profits from the Networks division and the value creation would occur with turning around CNN. WBD stock isn't appealing with the large debt load and the potential mistake of unloading a profitable business. Amazingly, analysts continue throwing out  $10 billion valuations  for news network CNN while  Warner Bros. Discovery  ( NASDAQ: WBD ) only has a market value of $30 billion. CNN constantly struggles to produce solid viewership metrics to suggest a large  market value anymore. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on Warner Bros. due to excessive competition in the media space. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Digital World: Diminished Opportunity

  Digital World Acquisition SPAC agrees to a settlement with the SEC costing a civil fine of $18 million. The deal with Trump Media and Truth Social appears close to actually closing after a painful period in purgatory. DWAC stock at an ~$3.8 billion valuation is vastly overvalued for the diminished opportunity in the social media space. While  Digital World Acquisition Corp.  ( NASDAQ: DWAC ) appears poised to settle with the SEC in a plan to allow the SPAC deal to finally close, Truth Social is still struggling to make any real business progress. The  social media platform owned by former President Donald Trump has seen a lot of its purpose as an independent platform disappear. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bearish on the SPAC deal trading nearly 50% above the SPAC deal price after the big rally on the SEC settlement news. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.