Posts

Showing posts with the label CELH

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Celsius: Unaltered Growth Story

Image
Updated - June 12 Celsius continues to collapse due to Pepsi optimizing inventory levels. Pepsi cut inventory levels by another $20 to $30 million in Q2 following $20 million in Q1 for a total of up to $50 million. The stock has now fallen from $100 to only $62 and lily on the path to the previous lows at $50.  Celsius Holdings ( NASDAQ: CELH ) is on watch after several analysts lowered Q2 estimates on the energy drink company due in part to further inventory reduction by PepsiCo ( PEP ). During an investor conference on Tuesday, Celsius Holdings ( CELH ) management quantified the  PepsiCo ( PEP ) inventory reduction during the quarter at $20 million to $30 million sequentially, which came on the heels of a $20 million inventory reduction in Q1. "While some of the reduction was driven by PEP's working capital efficiencies and CELH starting to ship more to PEP's smaller distribution warehouses vs larger mixing centers, we believe the bulk of the 1H inventory cut reflects th...

Celsius: Only Getting Started

Image
Update - Mar. 27, 2024 Celsius is now down nearly 8% on the day on news of new incentives for PepsiCo (PEP) to do their job. No details were released.  Celsius Holdings  added an amendment to the distribution agreement inked with PepsiCo  in 2022. The change will provide PepsiCo with an incentive program designed to incentivize and compensate it for its continued  focus on and actions to support the sale of Celsius'  licensed products. The amendment will boost PepsiCo's  average targeted margin on the sale of most licensed products. The amendment also covers products sold through promotional activity. Specific terms were undisclosed by the parties due to competitive reasons. Update - Feb. 29, 2024 Prior to the market open, Celsius reported another strong quarter. The energy drink company again smashed sales estimates and grew by nearly 95%. The stock has surged to new ATHs in no surprise considering the prime EV/S multiple nearly matched the one for Monster...

Celsius: Load Up On The Pullback

Despite a strong quarter, Celsius Holdings' stock has slumped due in part to a recent stock split, providing a buying opportunity. Demand for Celsius energy drinks remains strong, with potential for international growth to help the company maintain strong growth rates, though rates will decelerate. The stock is priced at a similar valuation multiple to a peer with much lower growth rates. Despite another blockbuster quarter,  Celsius Holdings  ( NASDAQ: CELH ) has slumped from substantially higher levels back in September. The recent stock split has apparently provided fuel for stock sales. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the  energy drink company on this dip. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Celsius: Early Days Still

Image
Update - Sept. 22, 2023 Celsius has been hit hard following the run to $200. Unclear what is causing the sell off other than the September swoon in growth stocks. The stock appears set to close the gap to $150 providing a premium entry point.  Original article posted on Aug. 23.  Celsius Holdings is trading at all-time highs but is still not expensive, with plenty of growth potential from international expansion. Sales growth accelerated in Q2'23, reaching a new quarterly record high of $326 million. The stock only trades at an EV/S multiple of 8x, similar to slower growing energy drink peer. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Celsius Holdings  ( NASDAQ: CELH ) trades at all-time highs, yet the stock still isn't expensive. The energy drink company continues to fire on all cylinders while still having plenty of growth upside from international expansion. My  investment  thes...

Celsius: Wanted Dip (Rating Upgrade)

Image
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Updated - May 27, 2023 Celsius appears set to test whether the gap in the chart will close. The quarterly results were good enough for the stock to keep running, but the pause now could turn into a route. The stock back below $110 would make for another tasty buy.  Updated - May 10, 2023 Huge quarter by Celsius. The chart was a huge tell of the bullish setup going into Q1 and the stock appears off to the races.  The Boca Raton-based beverage company reported $260M in revenue for the quarter, nearly double for the quarter, nearly double the figure notched in the prior year and reaching a record for the company. Gross profit for the first quarter jumped more than 100% YoY to $114M while $0.40 in EPS more than doubled the consensus estimates of $0.19.  Updated - Apr. 26, 2023 Looks like a low was set with higher lows here. Celsius could eas...

Celsius: Look For Dips

  Celsius reported another blowout quarter for Q3'22 with revenues of $188 million smashing estimates. The energy drink company is seeing initial strong results from the PepsiCo distribution deal. The stock appears expensive on most financial metrics, but Celsius trades at a similar forward P/S multiple of industry leader Monster. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   On most metrics,  Celsius Holdings  ( NASDAQ: CELH ) appears an expensive beverage stock to avoid in this market environment. The healthy energy drink company continues to report explosive growth and a new distribution partnership with  PepsiCo  ( PEP ), possibly warrants a higher valuation regardless of normal valuation metrics. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, though one should look at buying the hot stock on dips. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha  Disclosure: No position mention...