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Update - Nov. 22, 2024 Moderna has been hit hard following the last couple of years on waning demand for Covid vaccines while the biotech over spent on new drug development. Now, the stock appears to have been hit too hard. RFK is unlikely to alter vaccine sales by a dramatic amount.  -Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is up ~8% in Friday trading after company management said that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially heading up HHS under the next Trump administration is not likely to lead to vaccines being pulled from the market. -In a note, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee noted that while Kennedy Jr.'s nomination may have caused some investors anxiety, it is highly unlikely he would do "anything draconian." Moderna's management made the comments Nov. 21 at the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference. -Jefferies has a hold rating on the stock with a $50 price target (~31% upside based on Nov. 21 close). Original article posted on Sept. 13 Moderna, Inc. slashed its R&D budget by $1....

  Novavax, Inc. secured a lucrative deal with Sanofi, receiving potentially $1.2 billion in cash and future royalties for Covid vaccines. The deal significantly improved Novavax's financial position, but the stock has already rallied from $4 to $14, limiting potential upside. Novavax's future success hinges on the royalty revenue from the Sanofi deal in 2025, with limited ability to compete with Sanofi's commercialization capabilities. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » In a matter of months,  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) went from a biotech with a questionable future to one flush with cash and a potentially huge royalty deal. Investors being too greedy and not alert were probably caught  on the wrong side of the trade. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the biotech due to the stock now trading at nearly $14, up from only $4. Read ...

  Novavax, Inc. reported Q3 2023 numbers above consensus estimates based almost solely on grant revenue. The company cut guidance for 2023 revenues and even pushed out a large portion of those revenues to Q1 2024 due to weak COVID vaccine demand. The stock continues to decline as the company remains disconnected from the market demand for COVID vaccines. Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) continues to trend lower as the biotech still sounds somewhat disjointed from the market demand for COVID vaccines. Ironically, the company announced another cost reduction plan, a sure sign of the actual direction of vaccine demand  is much lower. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on NVAX stock, even at the multi-year lows near $6. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Moderna, Inc. revenues have now slumped due to lower Covid vaccine demand, but the company ramped up aggressive spending on R&D. The company faces up to $8 per share of losses in 2024 to 2025 due to the Covid curse. The stock isn't appealing due to the squeeze of lower revenues and higher expenses. The curse of the Covid demand surge is that a vaccine company like  Moderna, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: MRNA ) is now reporting far higher revenues, but the company isn't profitable anymore. Despite a promising vaccine pipeline, sales are only expected to dip  in the years ahead. My investment thesis is Bearish on the stock due to the speculative nature of the business going forward and the curse of the biotech trying to recapture the glory from the 2021 to 2022 period. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Novavax, Inc. bounced on hype while the prospects from the business continued to dim with the demand for Covid vaccines. The small biotech has major doubts about the financial picture of the company considering the massive operating expense structure built up to produce Covid vaccines. Novavax stock remains a Sell due to like further dilution ahead and no logical path to profits. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Following a going concern proclamation from the company,  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) had bounced over 50% of the lows to over $9. The biotech faces a problematic year as demand for Covid boosters dries up and the company has a  major mismatch with their current expense structure. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock as investors await Q1 results in mid-May. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position men...

  Novavax has issued dire warnings to shareholders as the company continues to burn substantial amounts of cash. The small biotech continues to dilute shareholders via near-endless share issuances, and no guarantees exist that the company will have a successful 2023 vaccine update. Novavax stock is one to avoid, even after crashing below $7 on the dire warning. Anyone historically following  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) could've predicted this ending for the biotech focusing on vaccines. The company has a history of promising new vaccines while constantly diluting shareholders over and over with new share issuance. The stock  soared to amazing heights on exuberance around the approved covid vaccine, but now the gig is up. My investment thesis is Bearish on Novavax, Inc. stock following statements from the company about substantial doubt of a going concern due to heavy losses and questionable covid vaccine demand. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disc...

  Carnival continues to rally when the market expects travel demand to rebound. The company is still operating far below full capacity and burning cash on a monthly basis. The stock doesn't offer the same value as certain airline stocks while holding more recovery risks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The cruise line stocks ended up 10% on December 6 due to reduced Omicron fears, but the sector should've been rocked by news of more covid cases on an actual cruise.  Carnival Corporation  ( CCL ) remains too risky compared to the airline industry for investors wanting a travel related investment. My  investment thesis  remains more Neutral on the stock due to the extra risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Dec. 28 More reasons to...

  Spirit Airlines cut Q3'21 guidance after a period of strong rebounds from the covid lows in 2020. The airline had to cut nearly 3,000 flights in early August due to internal issues. The stock is cheap back closer to $20 with a path to $4+ EPS in the next few years due to capacity growth. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The Delta variant has slightly dented travel demand, but the airline stocks have fallen up to 40% from the recent highs.  Spirit Airlines  ( SAVE ) hasn't helped their case with systems troubles causing the cancellation of thousands of flights. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on this stock following this dip as air travel demand remains on track for a full recovery. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - August 29 TSA traffic has def...

Alphabet has dipped $400 on COVID-19 fears. The company has an EV down to only $670 billion due to $115 billion in net cash. A slash in travel ad revenues will cut $1-2 billion in quarterly revenues. The stock only trades at an EV of 12.2x '21 EPS targets. A $1,700 target is only 19.0x EPS targets. With analysts already warning on  Alphabet  ( GOOG ,  GOOGL ) losing ad revenue in the travel space, the stock has taken an amazing $400 hit from recent highs. While consumers Internet search usage may remain high, hotels and travel destinations aren't going to advertise on the platform with a lack of travelers. While the situation sounds dire in the short term, investors should buy the stock for the all but certain rebound in the digital ad space as the coronavirus fears dissipate in the next weeks or months. My  investment thesis  maintains a $1,700 price target on the stock based on no changes to 2021 estimates. Read the full article on Seeking A...

Gilead Sciences rallied on potential COVID-19 treatment. The plan to remove stock-based compensation from non-GAAP EPS guidance provides a headwind in 2020. Due to a disappointing turnaround, the stock is a sell on any major rally based on the COVID-19 treatment. The ability of  Gilead Sciences  ( GILD ) to make a run at new highs must speak to bullishness surrounding the coronavirus because the biopharma is struggling to complete the expected turnaround. In addition, new management made the unwise decision to remove stock-based compensation from non-GAAP results going forward causing a headwind for EPS estimates. When combined with disappointing growth prospects for 2020, investors are probably lucky the stock is at yearly highs above $70 versus the yearly lows at $60. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GILD. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple warned on FQ2 revenues missing estimates due to coronavirus impact. Analysts remain very bullish on the company's prospects long term. The stock only trades $8 away from all-time highs. The stock isn't a buy until more realistic expectations emerge for the COVID-19 revenues impact. In no real surprise,  Apple  ( AAPL )  warned on revenue estimates  for the current quarter only about three weeks since the company provided  robust expectations  for FQ2 despite some fears on the coronavirus. My  previous research  had warned the stock wasn't appealing in the $320 range due to low yields and the virus issue in China and this warning reinforces this thesis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.