Showing posts from February, 2019

Fitbit - Q4 Earnings

After reporting Q4 results, Fitbit (FIT) is down substantially. In not a huge surprise, the wearables company failed to satisfy the market with 2019 guidance after the stock had a big run up to nearly $7.

Wayfair: Back To $150

Despite reporting another large loss, Wayfair (W) surged back to all-time highs around $150. The stock that offered a appealing entry point in the $80s isn't nearly as appealing up at $150.

Cannabis Coverage

Despite all the excitement over cannabis stocks, the sector has generally traded flat since mid-September. My research has consistently shown that the industry can too easily add supplies to meet and actually far exceed market demand.

LendingClub: Still A Stumbling Grower

After the close on Tuesday, LendingClub (LC) reported results that again disappointed the market. The stock is down about 7% to $3.35 providing an incredible value assuming the management team ever figures out how to impress the market with 20% growth.

Will You Buy Bausch Dip (Number Crunch Inside)

Bausch is "selling on the news."
Revenue growth slowed in the quarter. Debt payments tided up the balance sheet, albeit slightly.

Would you buy the dip? the stock is on sale for ~10%.
The outlook looks good. BHC said it is banking on the 7 products to drive growth:

Read more (value stock play inside).

Freeport-McMoRan: Let It Run

As copper prices rebound, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) will soar back to previous highs. The stock hit near $20 last year as copper prices headed to the mid-$3 range before the Chinese trade war hit demand.

Buy Apple Stock Before the Next Quarter

Apple shares consolidated and will double from here.
Markets think iPhone unit sales drive revenue. It does. And as iPhone XR, XS models get a price cut of ~ 5%, hardware sales will jump by more than that.
... EPS will continue its upward path:

Number crunch the fair value on Apple Stock.

Canopy Growth Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

In the much anticipated and long delayed Q4 earnings release, Canopy Growth (CGC) likely trades like a dude similar to Aurora Cannabis (ACB). The company generated massive growth, but the opening up of the recreational cannabis market in Canada has as many questions as answers.

Yelp Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

After the close, Yelp (YELP) reported Q4 numbers that beat estimates. In addition, the company established these 2023 goals.

Twilio Q4'18 Earnings

Twilio (TWLO) just reported a quarter where revenues grew 77%, yet the guidance suggests 2019 revenue growth of only 35%. Part of the issue is the inclusion of slower growing SendGrid (SEND) in the 2019 results.

Simple Reason To Own Under Armour

The market has fought owning Under Armour (UA, UAA) for years now, but a simple reason exists to own the stock. As long as the company has a relevant brand in turnaround mode, wise investors will utilize the P/S multiple to derive value.

Aurora Cannabis Q4'18 - Live Updates

Aurora Cannabis (ACB) reported results after the close providing the first official view of Canadian cannabis companies following the legalization of adult-use cannabis on October 17. Updates from the earnings report, earnings call and after-market reactions will be continuously updated here.

Avoid Electronic Arts and Buy Puts

Electronic Arts $EA is in big trouble. Its BF5 is a wannabe version of Fortnite. And consumers are not buying it.

The weak ER affirms the business is deteriorating.
The following day, news that Apex Legends grew faster than Fortnite on launch sent the stock up 16%. The registration is of course high: it's free to play.

EA earnings nothing from free registrations.
Short EA stock or buy Puts if the stock continues its rally.

Twitter Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

Twitter (TWTR) is down 10% due in part to disappointing Q1 guidance and possibly concerns over the reporting shift from MAUs to mDAUs. The move is personally a good one, but the social-media company would be better off to keep reporting the MAUs, as well.

Chipotle Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

After the close, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reported earnings that dazzled the market. Yet, the restaurant stock is still recovering from the health scare juicing comp sales for a highly expensive stock

Snap Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

Snap (SNAP)reports better than expected numbers, but the numbers are still very weak. The stock won't hold this rally.  Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.04 beats by $0.03.Revenue of $389.82M (+36.4% Y/Y) beats by $12.83M.DAUs - 186M vs 184M.  The key number is that Snap is still losing money and the guidance for Q1 is rather weak.  The social messaging service had negative FCF of $149 million and a similar net loss of $158 million.  When a company is losing a sizable amount, the stock won't hold gains based on beating estimates. Snap has to show a more legitimate path to profits, than the CEO saying it while the CFOs keep leaving. Another adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 of $150 million is another ugly start to another year.  Q1 2019 Outlook - Revenue is expected to be between $285 million and $310 million, or grow between 24% and 34% compared to Q1 2018.- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $(165) million and $(140) million, compared to $(218) million in Q1 2018. Do not chase Snap on th…

Glu Mobile Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

Glu Mobile (GLUU) initially plunges following what appear to be solid Q4 numbers and 2019 guidance:Bookings $98.2m versus estimates of $95.6MEPS of $0.062 2019 Bookings guidance $435 to $445 million versus estimates of $442 million

Alphabet Q4'18 Earnings - Live Updates

Alphabet reports a big revenue beat and as usual the earnings numbers are complex to dechiper since the company moved away from non-GAP numbers.

Post IPO Seloff Opportunities

One of the best opportunities in the market is to buy stocks beaten down post their IPO. Following big rallies immediately after the IPO, a lot of stocks go through periods where the market loses interest or the lockup expiration causes irrational losses.

Renaissance Capital provides this handy list of the top IPO winners and losers. Investors might want to review the top losers for a potential investment in the future.

Some interesting stocks this week are Carvana (CVNA) and Huya (HUYA). Both stocks are down over 50% from the highs prior to the lock-up expiration that took place around November for both stocks.

Carvana is a leading e-commerce platform for buying used cars is generating 100% revenue growth, the company continues losing money. The oncoming autonomous vehicles has investors concerned that the company might not have a bright future. Definitely a stock to watch as the market beats down the stock that priced the IPO at $15 last April.

Disclosure: No position. Pleas…

Canopy Growth: Heartburn Ahead

Seeking Alpha Top Trending Article

Canopy Growth expects to report FQ3 results after the market close on February 14. The report will include the first numbers from the adult-use market in Canada that was legalized staring October 17. Building a global operation from scratch in a short period should lead to massive operating costs. The stock has hit resistance again around $50. The Canadian cannabis market along with global cannabis market remains one of the most difficult markets to analyze in history. The markets are replacing illicit activities via converting the cannabis industry into legal means. Therefore, existing illegal supply is being replaced with massive legal production facilities and distribution networks while that illegal supply isn't necessarily being taken out of the market. All of the new companies have limited operating history to judge the management teams effectiveness and ability to distribute new product on a global scale while establishing strong brands fo…

Rite AId: Sentiment Too Bullish

Following the announcement of a planned reverse split, Rite Aid (RAD) continues to fall further below $1. The company now needs to complete a 1-20 split in order to get the stock to $15 post split.