Out Fox The $treet

Update - Sept. 12, 2023 United Airlines is back to testing the uptrend line. The case for the stock trading at $100 is simple, yet people refuse to hold airline stocks. United just has more gains ahead down at $47 with the upside potential far beyond $100.  Update - Sept. 5, 2023 The airlines are printing cash now, but the stocks fall on every slightly negative news... just crazy. -United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) dropped 4% on Tuesday after asking the Federal Aviation Administration to pause the airline’s departures nationwide. The request was lifted shortly thereafter. -"The ground stop is now lifted," UAL said on the platform formerly known as Twitter. -Earlier, the carrier said: "We are experiencing a systemwide technology issue and are holding all aircraft at their departure airports," UAL said in a message. "Flights that are already airborne are continuing to their destination as planned. We’re currently investigating and will share more information ...

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - March 13 Somehow United Airlines is down 5% to 6% in after hours after announcing '23 EPS is still on target to $10 to $12, yet the Q1 numbers will dip due to the pilot contract being signed in Q1, up from Q2.  United Airlines Holdings ( NASDAQ: UAL ) shares slumped after the bell on Monday after providing a pessimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2023. The company said that it now expects an adjusted loss per share between $0.60 and $1.00 in Q1  due to expenses related to “a potential new collective bargaining agreement with employees represented by the Air Line Pilots Association.” The airline had previously expected to accrue the expense in the second quarter. “The Company continues to see a strong demand environment and now expects first quarter 2023 total operating revenue to be up approximately 51% versus first quarte...

  United Airlines is poised to ride the trends for higher passenger traffic to larger profits. The stock is priced for another virus shutdown while even analysts that missed the recent demand rebound predict a $7+ EPS in 2023. United should double by 2025 on just reaching half their pre-tax margin target. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While the market fluctuates on travel stocks due to soaring fuel prices and recession fears,  United Airlines Holdings  ( NASDAQ: UAL ) still appears poised for substantial profit growth in the years ahead. The airlines are  again in the news for  cutting flights  due to staffing shortages during the peak summer flying months. Regardless, my investment thesis remains ultra Bullish on the stock following the big dip despite the ongoing logic that traffic demand is set to ultimately top 2019 levels along with historical trends. ...

  The U.S. is set to reopen travel with the U.K. and the EU starting in November pending more details. Atlantic departures remain down 50% from 2019 levels providing some of the best upside to recapture 2019 traffic levels. Back in 2019, United Airlines had 43% of ASMs assigned to international travel. The stock is cheap as a reopening of Atlantic traffic is a big part in the airline recapturing the 2019 EPS levels of $12 in a few years. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While air travel demand cooled off during August, the regulations restricting international travel are on the verge of being relaxed.  United Airlines Holdings  ( UAL ) led domestic carriers in international travel prior to the COVID-19 restrictions on flying outside of the domestic market. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the stock after a big sell off leading into a reopening of international travel for the v...

- Today our contributors who specialize in value, dividend, high yield, income, and REITs share their thoughts. -We will return with Part 2 of the 2021 Outlook Roundtable in early January. -The Marketplace team wishes to all who celebrate a Merry Christmas! We end our  2021 Roundtable - Part 1 - Vaccine News  series with our contributors who focus on value, dividend, high yield, income, and REIT investing. We asked our authors the following: Now that vaccines are approved in several countries, a post-COVID reality is in sight. How does this impact the investment horizon in your area of expertise for 2021? Name up to three stocks/ETFs that will outperform as a result. The answers were compiled as late as Sunday, Dec. 20. As usual, feel free to comment below - we'd love to hear your opinions. Out Fox The Street  by  Stone Fox Capital : A vaccine sets up the economic reopen trade for 2021 which includes a lot of the stocks in the Out Fox model. These stocks had solid bu...

Delta Air Lines entered the crisis already trading at a disaster discount. The airlines are quickly approaching load factors where average flights are break-even. The stock has upside from the 52-week high of $63 due to eventual multiple expansion. Delta Air Lines  (NYSE: DAL ) continues to rebound from the Buffett lows as airline traffic rises off the April lows. One of the most crucial metrics for valuing the airlines going forward is the load factor. My  investment thesis  is highly bullish on the airlines even with this recent rally in the stock as the load factors are rising and the potential for eliminating the disaster discount coming out of this down cycle improves the long-term potential of Delta. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAL, UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

American Airlines has over $17 billion in liquidity to survive the current air passenger traffic crash. The company has billions in unencumbered assets and a very valuable loyalty program as additional collateral for more funding. May 8th passenger traffic was up over 25% to the highest level since March 25. The market continues to misunderstand daily cash burn rates making the stock a buy at $10. The story of the day for  American Airlines Group  ( AAL ) is that the airline now has breathing room. With the government aid, the company has the liquidity to survive as passenger traffic continues to grow on a weekly basis even faster than ridesharing. The market remains highly fearful due to negative headlines such as Warren Buffett selling shares, but my  investment thesis  is even more bullish here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAL, UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Southwest Airlines reported mixed Q1 results as the coronavirus hit March revenues. The airline now has access to over $13 billion of cash after raising an additional $3 billion of funds. The company has reduced cash burn to ~$10 million. The stock is a bargain at 7x normalized earnings, but the airline isn't the best deal in the sector. Southwest Airlines  ( LUV ) has seen a tepid rally following  Q1 results  as the company is poised to quickly wipe out the daily cash burn. The general airline industry was up over 10% on the quarterly news and bullish signs of  reopening the economy  and international travel with passenger tests. Unfortunately, this airline caused a self-inflicted wound by rushing out equity offerings when cash wasn't needed. Under $30, my  investment thesis  remains bullish on the stock while acknowledging that better upside exists in other sector stocks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure...

Delta Air Lines obtained $5.4 billion in government aid. The airline stocks trade at constant discounts to the troubled cruise liners despite better business prospects. The stock trades at a substantial discount to the market at only 4.8x drastically reduced forward EPS estimates. For years now,  Delta Air Lines  ( DAL ) has been the best-run legacy airline, yet the stock was never loved by the markets. The airline always traded at far lower ratios than the other transport stocks and now the lack of love is apparent compared to the cruise lines. My  investment thesis  remains highly bullish on the airlines and particularly Delta as a safe bet for an eventual rebound in air passenger traffic rebound. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

More evidence continues to show that the strikes on Saudi oil facilities actually came from Iranian missles, not Yemen drones. Not even sure, if it matters, because the whole world knows that Iran was involved.  Dion Nissenbaum ✔ @DionNissenbaum US looking to declassify satellite imagery to bolster contentions that Iran was origin of weekend attack on Saudi oil industry as mounting evidence points to cruise missiles fired from Iran or Iraq, not Houthi drones launched from Yemen: https://www. wsj.com/articles/iran- rejects-u-s-accusations-over-saudi-oil-facility-attacks-11568544181?mod=hp_lead_pos1  … w/ @ summer_said Iran Rejects U.S. Accusations Over Saudi Oil-Facility Attacks Iran denied American accusations that it was behind Saturday’s strikes on Saudi oil facilities, as the kingdom rushed to contain the fallout from attacks that could disrupt global petroleum supplies. wsj.com 437 8:35 AM - Sep 15, ...

American Airlines has been beaten down this last year as investors incorrectly focus on net debt levels. Reduced capital expenditures and pension payments will free up around $3 billion in additional cash flows. The stock trades at half the P/S multiple of Delta Air Lines. The airline is in the middle of a $4.2 billion initiative to improve revenues and lower costs. The amazing decline in   American Airlines Group   ( AAL ) has left the stock at such a discount to the sector that a major Wall Street analyst actually called the stock undervalued due to the simple   P/S multiple . The airline has a lot more going on to support owning the stock, but an easy bull case always helps. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAL, UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The airline stocks took a hit today due to some weaker than forecast numbers from Southwest Airlines (LUV) . Investors need to avoid the urge to dump airlines like American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) .

United Airlines continues to post massive profits in relation to the market cap. Even at a slower pace, the airline is still repurchasing a large amount of outstanding shares. The recent rally only brings the stock up to more normal levels from which to launch another rally. Amazingly, the recent rally in  United Airlines (NYSE: UAL )  only brings the stock back up to levels from late 2015. In general, the airlines is seen in a better light now after strong results and new CEO Oscar Munoz gains momentum. Read a full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The question investors need to ask is why are they sold the legacy airlines based on one number and not the complete picture. This interview with the Delta Air Lines (DAL) CEO should've had investors rushing back into the stock today. Ironically though, the stocks didn't gain until oil prices rose. My Net Payout Yields portfolio continues to hold American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) due to massive stock buybacks. These dips in the sector are actually good for those stocks. The cheaper the better for the stock buyback plans. Disclosure: Long AAL and UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan Chase senior airline analyst, discusses how the airlines are fundamentally different now. The market continues of focus on every hurdle while the legacy stocks are extremely cheap. One can almost throw a dart at Delta Air Lines (DAL) , American Airlines Group (AAL) , and United Airlines (UAL) and win at these levels. Watch him take down the CNBC host on baggage fees. Disclosure: Long AAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The top 10 net payout yields had a sizable loss that failed to match the small gain in the benchmark for April. The top 10 net payout yield stocks average yields of 18.1% to start May. American Airlines took over the lead with the highest yield at 27.0%. This article is a continuation of a monthly series, highlighting the top net payout yield (NYSE: NPY ) stocks, that was started back in June 2012 (see  article ) and explained in August 2012 (see  article ). The series highlights the best stocks for the upcoming month utilized in part to make investment decisions for the  Covestor model  that is now beating the S&P 500 for five out of the last six years. Please review the original articles for more information on the NPY concept. Read there full article on Seeking Alpha.   Disclosure: Long AAL, AMP, M, MSI, NTAP, QCOM. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.