Showing posts from August, 2018

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Apple: Still Cheap At $1 Trillion

Despite surging past a $1 trillion market cap, Apple remains cheap trading at roughly 14x FY19 estimates, ex-cash. Active iPhone device growth continues to provide a boost to service revenues. Apple remains on pace for a 10% net payout yield. Due to huge free cash flows in the December quarter, the tech giant will hardly reduce cash balances in the 2H at the $25 billion quarterly capital return pace. Now that   Apple   ( AAPL ) has crossed the $1 trillion market cap threshold, the capital returns need to be reviewed again to derive whether value still exists in the stock. The famous plan for a $100 billion boost to stock buybacks was impressive at much lower values. My   investment thesis   that the stock wasn't still priced for the EPS boost still stands. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review this disclaimer page for more details.   

SodaStream: Thank You Pepsi

SodaStream recently hit all-time highs following strong Q2 results. Pepsi agreed to buy SodaStream at $144 per share in cash. The premium valuation offers an ideal time to exist a winning position. Only a few weeks ago,   SodaStream   ( SODA ) exploded above $100 after strong   Q2 results . The manufacturer of home beverage systems benefited from strong quarterly sales and incredible leverage in the system to boost earnings. The company has now accepted an offer for $144 in cash allowing investors an opportunity to quickly exit on the top after a massive rally from the 2016 lows. Read the f ull article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positioned mentioned. Sold SODA on the deal announcement. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

Shopify: Competition Knocking On The Expensive Door

Shopify recently hit a double top around $175. Adobe Systems entered the sector with the purchase of Magento to compete for the e-commerce platform of large brands. The alarming rate of sales deceleration is a major red flag for an expensive stock trading at a forward P/S multiple of 10x. One of the ramifications of a massive market valuation is that competitors want a piece of the action.   Shopify   ( SHOP ) faces this exact scenario as investors rewarded the company with P/S multiple of 10x '19 revenue estimates. Read the full article for more details.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

Synergy Pharma: Sales Ramp Ignored

Synergy Pharma continues a slow ramp of Turlance prescriptions. Significant cost controls helped cut the quarterly loss my nearly $10 million. The Express Scripts deal for 2019 places the biotech on a path to a huge sales ramp by Q2'19. Synergy Pharma ( SGYP ) has made several rallies towards $2, but the biotech stock hasn't held any gains despite improving prescription numbers for Trulance that treats IBS. The business developments during the last few months sets the stock up for a sustainable rally.  Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SGYP. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.