Showing posts from January, 2024

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Luminar Technologies: Full Speed Ahead

Luminar Technologies is trading at all-time lows, but has a strong lineup and large contracts with auto manufacturers set to ramp in 2024. The company showcased its Lidar technology at CES 2024, featuring in various exhibits and debuting new features. The stock has a market cap of a fraction of the order book, forecast to have already topped $4.4 billion. Luminar Technologies  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) is trading at the all-time lows, but the company recently highlighted a strong lineup at CES 2024. The Lidar company has several large contracts in place with large auto manufacturers, set to ramp  in 2024. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock, with investors abandoning ship while the prospects are the most positive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Rivian: Thank You, Ford!

  Rivian is benefiting from less competition in the EV space as other automakers pull back from EV production. The company has hit its EV production targets and should have a key shift to profit gross margins later this year. The stock is cheap in comparison to peers, especially considering the forecasted higher growth rates topping 40% through 2027. As some automakers pull back from producing EVs,  Rivian Automotive  ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) should be a beneficiary of less competition. Oddly though, the stock is slumping due to the current negativity on the EV space. My  investment thesis  is  even more Bullish now that the stock has slumped due to fears on EV demand while Rivian has hit EV production targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page or more details. 

Rumble: Scrapping Along The Bottom

Update - Jan. 22, 2024 The BarStool Sports deal is very promising, especially considering the push to promote Rumble. The company didn't provide any financial details on the partnership and a large guaranteed payment could actually be a negative.  The stock remains interesting below $5.  Update - Jan. 11, 2024 Rumble continues to collapse this week likely due to Twitter/X announcing new shows only on X.  The stock is down to new lows below $4.  Original article posted on Dec. 5, 2023 Rumble Inc. user metrics remain tepid, leading to new lows for the online video sharing service. The company's massive spending on content creators has not resulted in significantly higher usage or revenues. Rumble is forecasting a path to break even in 2025, but the stock remains risky due to high cash burn and the inability to monetize users effectively. After  another quarter  of tepid user metrics,  Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) has fallen to new lows. The online video sharing service has a prom

Ouster: Hidden Lidar Boom

Update - January 9, 2024 Ouster continues to hit targets setting up a likely rally in 2024 with a more bullish trend in Lidar stocks.  -Ouster, Inc. (NYSE:OUST) expects Q4 2023 revenue to be at or above the midpoint of the guidance range of $23 to $25 million previously provided on November 9, 2023. Original article posted on Nov. 28 Ouster, Inc. reports consistent bookings far exceeding quarterly revenues, with $114 million in bookings YTD. The company sees strong bookings tailwinds in the automotive and mapping segment, with binding commitments tripling purchases and an overall book-to-bill ratio of 2x. Ouster stock currently trades at nearly cash value and hardly above 1x '23 bookings. The Lidar sector continues to report spectacular growth, but stocks like  Ouster, Inc.  ( NYSE: OUST ) trade close to the lows. The non-automotive Lidar leader even reports spectacular bookings totals, yet the market is mostly ignoring the orders in  hand. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish o

ZIM: Fade The Houthi Induced Rally (Rating Downgrade)

Update - Jan. 5, 2023 ZIM has surged to $15 due to ongoing issues in the Red Sea with the Houthi's attacking container ships. While shipping rates have surged, the issues will just add to the capacity problems through 2025 with new vessels coming online, instead of low rates revolving the problems. -New container shipping equal to about 11% of the current fleet will enter the seas this year, according to DNB Markets estimates. DNB reckons shippers will add additional capacity equal to 7% of the current fleet in 2025. And the brokerage estimates that fleet utilization was only about 70% in 2023 before the disruptions—well below levels in recent years which have consistently been over 80%. Original article posted on Dec. 31, 2023  Shipping stocks like ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. have surged due to disruptions in the Red Sea caused by Houthi militants. The attacks have led to longer travel times for ships, boosting container shipping rates to Europe and the East Coast of the

Mobileye: Damaged Goods

  Mobileye Global warns of inventory issues and expects 2024 guidance to fall far short due to excess supplies caused by double EyeQ ordering during Covid. The ADAS chip company guided to 2024 revenues of only $1.9 billion suggesting a bigger problem than the 6 to 7 million excess chip inventory at Tier 1 customers. MBLY stock still trades at an elevated 12x 2024 sales targets despite the 25% dip. Since going public via the spin-off from  Intel Corporation  ( INTC ) in late 2022,  Mobileye Global Inc.  ( NASDAQ: MBLY ) has constantly traded at a premium valuation. The ADAS chip company just announced a  massive warning due to inventory issues at the end of 2023. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock even after the nearly 25% loss in early trading today, January 4th. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.