Out Fox The $treet

Update - May 6, 2025 The fintech has slipped to $50 despite a big quarter likely due to not hiking guidance.  Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.03  beats by $0.16 . Revenue of $213.37M (+66.7% YoY)   beats by $12.11M . Upstart signed a forward-flow agreement for $1.2 billion with Fortress Investment Group. The main issue with numbers is likely guidance just generally matching current estimates.  Q2 Revenues of $225 million vs. consensus at $226 million 2025 Revenues at $1.01 billion vs. consensus at $1.01 billion.  The stock dips to a $4 billion market cap at the $42 after-hours price, or 4x sales targets. Upstart just traded down below $40, so the stock likely bounces at this level.  Update - Apr. 5, 2025 Upstart has entered the buy zone on the dip to nearly $30. The AI lending stock has just been crushed after rallying to $90. The company will have to report a serious pullback to lending to warrant this dip.  Original article posted on Mar. 30 Upstart Holdings...

Update - Feb. 12, 2025 Upstart with a monster quarter, the stock probably heads to $100.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.30. -Revenue of $218.96M (+56.1% Y/Y) beats by $37.04M. -Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ. Our Conversion Rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023. Original article posted on Jan. 07 Upstart Holdings saw a surge to $80 due to positive earnings but remains overvalued at $60 despite higher loan demand from Fed rate cuts. The AI lending platform's expansion into secured auto loans and HELOCs hasn't yielded significant growth in a huge disappointment, and the company is still struggling to turn a profit. UPST stock trades at 8x forward sales, limiting the attractiveness of Upstart. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After urging investors to sell into strengt...

Update - July 25, 2023 The AI rage is full speed ahead with Upstart during the last month. This doesn't look like a peak due to the BTIG upgrade, but a shareholder should be looking for an exit point.  Original article posted on May 11.  Upstart made a huge step in rebounding from the downward spiral the lending platform had been going on over a year. The fintech announced committed funding of $2+ billion crucial to a turnaround, but the company didn't provide any details. UPST stock is reasonably valued here at 3.2x '23 sales estimates that require considerable 2H growth to hit targets. Upstart Holdings  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) signaled a key shift in their AI lending marketplace, making the business model far more appealing. The big question now is the details on the new committed lending partners, but at least the  fintech has ended the downward spiral. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the stock following the big rally off the lows. Read the ...

  Upstart reported another weak quarter in Q4 2022, and in particular guided to collapsing loan origination demand in Q1 2023. The fintech doesn't appear any closer to solving the committed capital issues, though this could provide a stock boost on the next up cycle. Upstart Holdings stock is expensive compared to fintech lending peers despite reporting large losses. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Just a couple of weeks back,  Upstart Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) announced plans to  lay off ~20% of their workforce  in a sign of how weak 2023 had started off. The fintech continues to  operate a flawed AI-driven lending platform very susceptible to cyclical lending practices. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on UPST stock despite Upstart trading near the lows, though the stock could become a good trading vehicle as the Fed moves to pause ra...