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IB Net Payout Yields Model

Intrade.Com Shows Nearly 50% Chance of Republicans Controlling Senate

In a dramatic surge, Intrade.com now suggests that the Republicans might just get control of the Senate. The odds have been relatively low most of the year until recently. Intrade shows a nearly 46% chance of Republicans gaining control up from a lowly 30% chance back on October 1st. This dramatic change is clearly being seen in the stock price surge in October. Less power for Obama means higher stock prices for a market trading at low valuations.

Clarity

Today's trading was all about clarity. Though the market started weak and it appeared that the 200EMA was going to become major resistance, all of the troubles in this market seemed to clear up within hours. First, BP caps the well and stops the oil from gushing into the gulf. This will improve confidence assuming of course it continues to work and passes numerous pressure tests. Second, Congress passed a Financial Regulation bill that lacks true to punishing power to the industry. While not a bullish bill by any means, its at least done and alot less harmful then feared. Third, Goldman Sachs (GS) settled with the SEC on fraud charges. The fine was only $550M which was considerably less then feared. With GS being such a market leader, this settlement will unleash the stock and one of the leaders that has held the market down since mid April. The clarity on these subjects along with news overnight that China has been successful in slowing down the economy from torrid growth is also ...