Out Fox The $treet

Update - March 6 No surprise the government is looking to block the acquisition by JetBlue. The question is whether the DoJ actually has the right to block the merger. Besides, Spirit shareholders are likely better off without a deal. Regardless, the stock has fallen to the yearly and covid lows as the market apparently doesn't understand Spirit is better off without JetBlue.  Regulators are reportedly looking to block the prospective merger between JetBlue Airways ( NASDAQ: JBLU ) and Spirit Airlines ( NYSE: SAVE ), sending shares of the latter sliding. Both the Department of Transportation and Department of Justice are looking to  halt the deal on the grounds that the merger would be anti-competitive, according to Bloomberg. Per prior media reports, executives from the carriers met with the DOJ in late February  in a "last-rites" meeting  to assuage regulatory concerns on the planned merger. That meeting followed  reports earlier in February  that the dep...

  Spirit Airlines has at least 44% upside on closing the JetBlue deal. The airline deal still has a lot of questions on whether regulators will approve the merger. The stock is cheap whether the deal closes at $33.50 per share in cash or the airline and shareholders get a large breakup fee and Spirit remains a standalone airline. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While long term investors should've wanted the  Frontier Group Holdings'  ( ULCC ) buyout of  Spirit Airlines  ( NYSE: SAVE ), those investors must now analyze the  JetBlue Airways  ( JBLU ) deal. The agreed  upon purchase price provides substantial upside to the stock while holding Spirit Airlines offers downside protection on a deal failure. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock, though disappointed shareholders didn't approve the merger with Frontier. Read the...

  Spirit Airlines cut Q3'21 guidance after a period of strong rebounds from the covid lows in 2020. The airline had to cut nearly 3,000 flights in early August due to internal issues. The stock is cheap back closer to $20 with a path to $4+ EPS in the next few years due to capacity growth. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The Delta variant has slightly dented travel demand, but the airline stocks have fallen up to 40% from the recent highs.  Spirit Airlines  ( SAVE ) hasn't helped their case with systems troubles causing the cancellation of thousands of flights. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on this stock following this dip as air travel demand remains on track for a full recovery. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - August 29 TSA traffic has def...

  Spirit Airlines forecast strong financial targets for Q2/Q3. The airline is poised to grow the fleet by a 15% CAGR going forward. The stock is cheap at $37 as EPS targets start pointing toward $4-plus. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Despite U.S. airline traffic only recently topping 50% of 2019 levels, Spirit Airlines ( SAVE ) already is back to operating close to normal. As yields rise, the airline will start generating solid profits in the next few quarters. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on Spirit Airlines as the stock is poised to return to previous highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SAVE. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Spirit Airlines is down close to 50% from recent highs. The airline will obtain a massive cushion from lower fuel costs with jet fuel down to $1.42 per gallon. Global air travel rarely slows down based on virus outbreaks. The stock is a bargain at below 5x normalized EPS estimates. As the global coronavirus outbreak reduces travel, the domestic airline stocks are being hit hard.  Spirit Airlines  ( SAVE ) is now an incredible bargain after taking a $20-plus tumble in the last couple of weeks. The market has far too much fear over an airline with a rock-solid position. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update March 9, 2020 Jet fuel was down to $1.31 as of March 6 and will continue to fall. The lower prices are a huge benefit to the airlines like Spirit. The stock has held the lows from last Friday.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

11/28 Update Spirit Airlines (SAVE) has surged 20% over the last couple of days after the airline boosted Q4 RASM to ~11% growth. The airline had originally forecast 6% growth after a period of declining metrics. The airline has amazingly hit new highs following my April article when Spirit Airlines was down in the dumps. Analysts are boosting 2019 EPS estimates above $5 per share. The stock likely rallies towards $70 on this bullish news. Investors should turn more cautious at these levels. The airline has a tendancy to dramatically boost capacity as yields start to improve. Absent any capacity boost, my view could stay bullish on these gains.

Spirit Airlines shareholders are glad to see 2015 end. The airline is set for better traffic metrics in 2016 due to reduced capacity growth. The stock is highly attractive at extreme lows compared to the long-term growth rate. My investment thesis on Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE ) for a while now is that the airline caused self-inflicted wounds by growing capacity too fast. The stock is currently trading near multi-year lows, down roughly 50% from all-time highs. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Summary Spirit Airlines provided disappointing margin guidance for the rest of 2015. The discount airline continues to face growing pains from a capacity surge in excess of 30%. The recent stumbles in the airline industry provide a solid buying opportunity, especially considering the cheap valuation of Spirit Airlines.    After the close, Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE ) reported substantially reduced margins for Q2 and the full year. A key distinction though is a large amount of the reduced numbers are due to weather related issues during Q2. At the same time, the airline is definitely facing more airfare pressure during the prime summer travel months. A big part of the issue is self inflicted due to the greater than 30% capacity growth while most other airlines maintain capacity discipline. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.

After reading the November traffic results from the major legacy airlines, one would've assumed that the month was a throwaway for all airlines. The timing of the Thanksgiving holiday pushed passenger return traffic into December. All of the major airlines reported declining load factors, with Delta Air Lines ( NYSE: DAL     ) and US Airways, now part of American Airlines Group ( NASDAQ: AAL     ) , blaming the late Thanksgiving and proclaiming that December will be strong. But, along came Spirit Airlines ( NASDAQ: SAVE     ) with some surprisingly positive numbers. The company did note a small decline in load factor, but the other traffic totals suggest that November was a normal month to the airline. Read the full article here . Disclosure: Long AAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Following a few intriguing moves in the past month,  Spirit Airlines '  ( NASDAQ: SAVE     )  cheap-ticket, high-fee model could be in for serious competition in a few years. Spirit chairman William Franke, who pioneered the airline's highly profitable approach to flying, resigned his post after his Indigo Partners group sold a substantial stake in the airline. But Franke and Indigo turned right around and bought Frontier Airlines, a subsidiary of  Republic Airways ( NASDAQ: RJET     ) The deal won't close until December, and given the time it takes to turn around an airline, Spirit and Allegiant Travel ( NASDAQ: ALGT     ) shouldn't sweat Frontier's competition for now. However, with a strong operator at its helm, other ultra-low-cost carriers could face a tougher rival in the future. Read the full article here . Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Anybody following this blog should know by now that the consolidation in the airline industry makes it investable for the first time possibly ever. The major airlines, including Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL ) , United Airlines, a subsidiary of United Continental Holdings  (NYSE: UAL ) , and the ongoing combination of US Airways (NYSE: LCC ) and American Airways have helped dramatically reduce the competition in the sector. The biggest threat to strong profits more » Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

All of the benefits of consolidation undertaken by the major airlines to create three behemoths could unravel if new competitive threats enter the market. After decades of losses, new airlines entering the industry don’t appear as likely a threat as some of the established, more regional players aggressively expanding to fill the voids created by the mergers. Enter Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE ) as possibly the biggest threat to the more » Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.