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Showing posts from 2026

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Firefly Aerospace: Riding The Space Race Higher

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  Firefly Aerospace Inc. trading at a discount to peers amid strong quarterly results and robust backlog growth. The Q2 backlog surged to a record $1.5 billion, supported by moon landing missions and Lockheed Martin launches, supporting a strong long-term growth trajectory. FLY's revenue guidance for 2026 remains $420–$450 million, with order timing causing quarterly volatility. The stock only trades at 4x 2028 sales targets, while rocket launch companies trade at multiples of this price. Firefly Aerospace Inc. ( FLY ) was an amazing gift on the dip back to support around $20. The space infrastructure company continues to pull large orders as Firefly expands manufacturing capabilities to ride the space race. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on FLY stock, which is trading at a discount to other rocket launch and space companies. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No position. mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details

Moderna: Focus On Cancer Vaccines, Not Buyout

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Update - Aug. 19, 2026 MODERNA, MERCK  MRNA  CANCER VACCINE SUCCEEDS IN PHASE 3, stock up nearly 150% to $153 mid-day trading. The stock is now up nearly 500% from where our research highlighted the potential benefits of a cancer vaccine.  - MRNA  and  MRK  say their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran, combined with Keytruda slowed melanoma recurrence and spread in a late-stage trial. -The study was stopped at its first interim analysis after positive results, though detailed efficacy data have not yet been released.   Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Oct. 31, 2025 Moderna surged on reports of talks with a large biopharma for a potential partnership or buyout, despite trading at multi-year lows. MRNA's promising cancer vaccine data and surprising findings on mRNA Covid vaccines boosting cancer surv...

Aurora Innovation: Scaling Too Slow

  Aurora Innovation faces intensifying competition amid slow scaling, with only 200 autonomous trucks targeted by end-2026. AUR's transition from TaaS to DaaS will boost margins but reduce per-truck revenue in 2027. The $14B market cap appears stretched given projected revenue ramp, ongoing dilution, and high cash burn through at least 2028. I remain neutral, seeing the stock range-bound ($4–$8) due to premium valuation, execution risks, and lack of compelling upside catalysts. In the blink of an eye, Aurora Innovation, Inc. ( AUR ) is already inundated with competition. The proclaimed autonomous trucking leader has been slow to launch services and the sector is quickly catching up. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock, though $6 could provide support for a bounce. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Rocket Lab: Not Priced For Launch Delays

  Rocket Lab Corporation boasts robust business momentum but trades at an aggressively high valuation, unsupported by Neutron rocket testing delays. The company announced a big $2.36B backlog with $1B+ in new contracts, highlighting the strong business climate in the space sector. RKLB’s planned $8B Iridium acquisition requires heavy equity issuance, adding dilution risk while integration and growth benefits remain years away. With a 50x sales multiple, 40% gross margins, and slowing pro forma growth, RKLB’s stock price remains disconnected from realistic growth and profitability timelines. Rocket Lab Corporation  ( RKLB ) remains a great example of a strong business mismatched with an aggressively priced equity valuation. Most investors view a stock trading in lockstep with revenue or earnings growth, but the current  valuation of Rocket Lab requires years of execution to warrant this price. My  investment thesis  remains bearish on the stock after the company ...

Rumble: Pivotal AI Cloud Shift

Update - Aug. 10, 2026 RUM Group with a huge start as an AI cloud company. The company has the assets for $3B+ of ARR next year. The stock is a gift here nearly flat in AHs after reporting the following numbers with Q2 results.  ~ Record Revenue of $40.4 Million up 61% YoY ~ ~   Closed Acquisition of Northern Data, Adding Approximately 250 MW of Unmonetized 2027 Targeted Capacity Representing a $3B+ ARR Opportunity ~ ~ Initiating Formal Guidance Beginning with Third Quarter 2026 Revenue Outlook of $87 Million to $93 Million ~ Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May30 Rumble Inc. is pivoting from video streaming to AI cloud services with the imminent Northern Data acquisition, targeting major AI compute opportunities. Post-merger, RUM expects a sales baseline of ~$425 million, driven by Tether commitments and GPU rental expansion, posit...

SoFi: More Wall St. Games

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  SoFi Technologies delivered 41% YoY revenue growth, and record loan originations. The flywheel effect and SoFi Plus adoption drove robust member and product growth, providing a recurring revenue stream for the future. The fintech guided conservatively due to adopting the view of up to 2 Fed rate hikes this year versus original expectations of rate cuts. The stock is cheap trading at just 13x 2026 adjusted EBITDA targets while consensus estimates project strong growth into 2028, including 52% EBITDA growth this year. SoFi Technologies, Inc.  ( SOFI ) continues reporting amazing results, yet the stock is stuck 50% below the all-time highs. The fintech is firing on all cylinders regardless of guidance for more market-related headwinds in the  2H. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock as the market is not accurately valuing SoFi based on the growth dynamics. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SoFi. Please review the...

Archer Aviation: Taking Off With Anduril

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Archer Aviation remains out of favor despite major announcements on new product developments on top of the promising air taxi business. The new Halo autonomous VTOL, developed with Anduril, targets commercial payload transportation, opening up a new market opportunity. The eVTOL manufacturer is still progressing towards certification of their eVTOL, unlocking a massive order backlog. ACHR stock trades below $5 with a $3.5 billion market value despite defense sector stocks obtaining far higher valuations. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Archer Aviation Inc.  ( ACHR ) and the eVTOL space are so out of favor right now that a big announcement with a defense sector darling didn't generate a lasting move in the stock. The aerospace company is quickly  building a robust business pipeline outside the air taxi focus. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bul...

Mobileye: Late To The Robotaxi Game

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Update - July 23, 2026 Mobileye probably needs new leadership with the stock back down to the lows, but the company is just getting further behind the robotaxi race with this leadership disruption. The company just announced the deal for the  cloud-enhanced advanced driver assistance system technology in select Stellantis N.V. (STLA) vehicles, starting in 2027, but the program involves Mobileye spending too much time on secondary tech, not robotaxis. -Mobileye ( MBLY ) founder Amnon Shashua has informed the board of his intention to step down as CEO upon the appointment of a successor, ending a 27-year tenure. -Mobileye’s board will hire an executive search firm to conduct a comprehensive CEO search. -Shashua has been offered the role of chairman once a new CEO is appointed. Original article posted on Jun. 17 Mobileye Global Inc. is entering the robotaxi market, launching a service in 2027 despite being late compared to established competitors. The ADAS company faces significant co...

Intel: Q2'26 Earnings Don't Impress

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Intel (INTC) jumped after reporting Q2 results that beat estimates, but the company didn't report impressive guidance for Q3. The semi. company only produced a Q2 EPS of $0.42 while guiding to only $0.38 for Q3. The results don't warrant a $100+ price. 

Ouster: Funded For Physical AI Scaling

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Update - July 17, 2025 Investors can now buy Ouster $18 below the recent secondary price. The stock is below the prior support/resistance line, but the Lidar sensor company is funded for Physical AI growth  Original article posted on July 4  Ouster, Inc. raised $200M, boosting pro forma cash to ~$375M, positioning for large-scale customer physical AI ramp-ups and inventory needs. The company has several customers with public disclosures of plans for rapid expansion for 10x to 100x unit growth. Management targets 30–50% annual growth, with potential for explosive acceleration as Physical AI applications proliferate. The stock currently trades at ~10x 2027 revenue targets, but consensus estimates may understate upside as major customers scale orders. Ouster, Inc.   ( OUST )  has suddenly become a Physical AI darling, but the market wasn't excited about a secondary offering. The LiDAR sensor company was wise to raise some additional funding as more customers look to ...

AST SpaceMobile: Failing Upwards

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Update - July 13, 2026 ASTS  facing support between $65 and $67.50. If the stock doesn't hold here, watch out below. The SpaceX IPO  was the alarm bell at the top in the space sector.  Original article posted on June 1 AST SpaceMobile continues running out of a way to meet targets for launching a space-based broadband network in the next year. Despite a $44B market cap, ASTS has minimal revenues, no operational satellite network, and faces major launch delays after the Blue Origin explosion. The company faces a competitive threat from Starlink Mobile, while the demand for D2D satellite services to cover dead zones has been very minimal. The stock remains irrationally priced considering the lack of anything close to a satellite network and major questions regarding ultimate demand. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » AST SpaceMobile, Inc.  ( ASTS )...

Baidu: Hidden AI Inflection

Updated - July 8, 2026 The chip company Baidu controls is now set to be more valuable than all of the parent company. Baidu only has a market cap of $40 billion while the company has a net cash position of nearly $30 billion. The valuation is just wild.  -Baidu's (BIDU) Hong Kong-listed shares surged about 7% on Monday after reports that its AI chip unit, Kunlunxin, is targeting a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation of about $50B. -Kunlunxin is seeking the valuation in its planned IPO and has asked prospective investors to commit to purchasing the company's AI chips at a value equivalent to three to seven times their intended IPO share subscription, according to The Information report. -Baidu (BIDU) disclosed in January that Kunlunxin had confidentially filed for a Hong Kong listing as part of a planned spin-off while the parent company retains a controlling stake. Founded in 2011 as Baidu's in-house AI chip division, Kunlunxin has expanded beyond supplying Baidu (BIDU) to serving...

CoreWeave: Hyperscaler Risk Overblown

  CoreWeave remains the leading neocloud with a $100 billion revenue backlog, yet trades at a depressed valuation due to debt and competitive fears. Meta Platform's AI cloud ambitions are misunderstood; META’s long-term capacity needs likely reinforce, not threaten, CRWV’s revenue pipeline. CRWV trades at only 2x 2028 EV/S target, with EBITDA forecasted at 70% of revenues and significant cash generation underway. I remain ultra Bullish, viewing the current weakness and sub-$45 billion market cap as a compelling entry point given rapid growth and a strong backlog. CoreWeave, Inc.   ( CRWV )   remains the leading neocloud, but the market hasn't given the company a lot of benefit for the booming backlog. The AI cloud company has investors fearful of large debt loads, and now a  major customer potentially entering the AI space is seen as another negative. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish with the market likely misinterpreting the competitive threat....

Rivian: Thank You, R2!

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Rivian Automotive launched the R2, marking a pivotal shift toward more affordable EVs and reigniting sales momentum. The EV manufacturer raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65K–70K vehicles, reflecting robust Q2 deliveries and improved production outlook. The stock trades at only ~2x 2026 sales targets, with valuation supported by strong positioning in the $50K midsize SUV/Crossover segment. The investment thesis remains ultra Bullish, emphasizing accelerating production, growing addressable market, and positive delivery surprises. Rivian Automotive Inc.  ( RIVN ) finally launched the R2 and the momentum in the company appears to have finally turned. The EV manufacturer now has a more affordable vehicle to sell, leading to a long  period of sales growth ahead. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock still trading within the yearly range despite the vastly improving story. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. ...

Bloom Energy: Pause Warranted

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Update - July 1, 2026 BAM agreeing to expand the partnership by $20B is just massive. BE ended down on the day due to irrational fears related to Meta Platforms (META) exploring entering the market to sell unused compute capacity. The market should fucus more on the demand for their data center power solution.  -Bloom Energy (BE) up 12% post-market Tuesday after announcing an ​expansion of its partnership with Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) to finance power ‌projects for AI infrastructure from the previously announced $5B to $25B, a fivefold expansion since October 2025. -The companies said the expanded partnership "reflects strong and sustained demand from hyperscalers and AI infrastructure developers for fast, reliable, and community-friendly power," as they continue to advance a new model for AI factories that integrates power, compute, data center infrastructure, and capital from the outset. Originally posted on May 21 Bloom Energy has secured major AI data center cont...

Mobileye: Stuck In Neutral

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Update - June 16, 2026 Mobileye  seems very late to the robotaxi business. The  frustration over the last couple of years was the lack of leadership in the autonomous vehicle shift.  -Mobileye ( MBLY ) on Tuesday said it plans to launch its own autonomous ride-hailing service in a U.S. city in 2027, expanding beyond supplying self-driving technology to operating robotaxi fleets directly. -The company aims to deploy around 100 driverless vehicles initially, with plans to scale to about 17,000 vehicles over the following five years. Original article posted on Apr. 4 Mobileye Global remains in a transitional phase, struggling to capture leadership in the fast-moving robotaxi and autonomous vehicle markets. The company has a promising $24.5B eight-year revenue pipeline, but annual revenues remain stagnant near $2B, with 2026 guidance projecting flat to 5% growth. The recent $900M Mentee Robotics acquisition pushes MBLY into humanoid robotics, but the company faces formidable ...

Roku: New Highs, No Problem

Update - June 12, 2026 Not sure how the Roku OS works inside another media company, but a buyout could be a good opportunity to cash out on big gains. The stock wasn't overly cheap anymore.  -Roku Inc. (ROKU) soared 20% on a report that the streaming video platform is in discussions to sell itself. -Roku has been in talks with at least one US media company about a potential deal, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday, which cited people familiar with the matter. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 2 Roku, Inc. has surged to $125 as platform revenues grew at a robust 28% YoY clip in Q1'26, driving bullish sentiment. ROKU's business mix shift to high-margin platform revenue (now 90% of total) has yielded a 165% YoY jump in adjusted EBITDA. Management targets $5.5B in revenue and $675M in EBITDA in 2026, with free cash flow expected...