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IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: SP500 Earnings Estimates Soar

As the market crashes and especially the global growth stocks, earnings estimates for SP500 stocks continue to climb into record territory. Profits are now forecast to reach $104.73 in the next 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Some analysts are even forecasting $112 for 2012. Whats amazing about these data points is that the four-week increase in earnings on May 2nd represented the biggest gain since May 2010. Oddly that was the same period where the market sold off in 2010. The inverse correlation between raising earnings and the market selling off seems backwards, but we've now seen it 2 years in a row. Last year was a buying opportunity and this year could easily follow. If the market were to hit those earnings numbers around $104 and trade at the historical PE multiple around 15, the SP500 would reach over 1,600. Today the market sunk over 1% on Greece debt fears and global growth concerns after weak PMI data out of China and Germany providing a great ent...

Don't Expect a Market Correction Anytime This Year or Next

As the two year anniversary of this bull market that started in March 2009 has come and gone, it's time to actually review some of the facts surrounding typical bull markets. From listening to numerous media reports yesterday, its common place for analysts and hosts to spew out information without researching the past. From this Bloomberg article , numerous real facts about the market were revealed. It's also revealing that alot of the players that called the bottom remain bullish and alot of the cronies that called for a further correction are still bearish. Sometimes it makes you wonder if any of the so called bears had any real insight other then a broken clock is correct twice a day. It also makes me wonder if we'll say the same about the bulls down the road. Clearly a two year rally without a 20% correction seems impressive and sounds like a very long time. At least thats what you get from the typical media. But is it really all that impressive? According to resear...

Barton Biggs Backs our Melt Up Theory

Stone Fox Capital has been adamant that we expected the market to continue to melt up the rest of the year. From both a technical and fundamental view, it appears that the market needs to hit at least 1,200 to brush off the huge falloff from last year. Now when we get to that level it doesn't mean that we'll rush off to new highs above 1,550. Heck we won't even be close to the old highs and that is the part that so many shorts continue to miss. Yes, the market is up 50% off the lows but it's still so far from the highs. The level of the rebound is determined by the size of the drop. Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners went on CNBC today and discussed this issue. Hes in the camp that the rally has plenty more room