Posts

Showing posts from September, 2023

IB Net Payout Yields Model

NIO: Looking To Take The Business To The Next Level

Image
  Update - Sept. 28, 2023 Not really sure what to make of NIO  possibly seeking even more investments. The converts were a disaster, but the stock has probably bottomed here on the potential Mercedes deal.  -NIO (NYSE:NIO) tracked higher in early trading on Thursday off a report that the Chinese electric vehicle maker has held exploratory talks with Mercedes-Benz Group AG (OTCPK:MBGAF) for a strategic tie-up. -Sources told Reuters that the proposed partnership would include the German automaker investing in NIO (NIO) in exchange for technology. NIO (NIO) CEO William Li is said to have discussed the potential collaboration with Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGAF) CEO Ola Kaellenius earlier in the year. However, there has been resistance within Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGAF) to pushing ahead with a deal and the talks reportedly did not reach a stage where details on the technology to be transferred and terms of a financial investment were discussed. Original article posted on Aug. 28 NIO's Q2&#

Livent: Lithium Upside

  Livent Corporation has sold off due to falling lithium prices, but offers upside potential from the demand for EVs and new mining assets. The stock is already cheap, with a market cap of $3.7 billion, and trades at only 6x EBITDA targets. The merger with Allkem Limited provides cost synergies to further boost profits. Even as lithium prices fall,  Livent Corporation  ( NYSE: LTHM ) has become exceptionally cheap. The stock has fallen from a recent high of nearly $30 to below $18, but the opportunity is to ride potential future lithium shortages  higher. My investment thesis is Bullish on the lithium miner, while the merger with  Allkem Limited  ( OTCPK:OROCF ) provides more upside from a boost to profits. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Moderna: Covid Curse

Image
  Moderna, Inc. revenues have now slumped due to lower Covid vaccine demand, but the company ramped up aggressive spending on R&D. The company faces up to $8 per share of losses in 2024 to 2025 due to the Covid curse. The stock isn't appealing due to the squeeze of lower revenues and higher expenses. The curse of the Covid demand surge is that a vaccine company like  Moderna, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: MRNA ) is now reporting far higher revenues, but the company isn't profitable anymore. Despite a promising vaccine pipeline, sales are only expected to dip  in the years ahead. My investment thesis is Bearish on the stock due to the speculative nature of the business going forward and the curse of the biotech trying to recapture the glory from the 2021 to 2022 period. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Celsius: Early Days Still

Image
Update - Sept. 22, 2023 Celsius has been hit hard following the run to $200. Unclear what is causing the sell off other than the September swoon in growth stocks. The stock appears set to close the gap to $150 providing a premium entry point.  Original article posted on Aug. 23.  Celsius Holdings is trading at all-time highs but is still not expensive, with plenty of growth potential from international expansion. Sales growth accelerated in Q2'23, reaching a new quarterly record high of $326 million. The stock only trades at an EV/S multiple of 8x, similar to slower growing energy drink peer. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Celsius Holdings  ( NASDAQ: CELH ) trades at all-time highs, yet the stock still isn't expensive. The energy drink company continues to fire on all cylinders while still having plenty of growth upside from international expansion. My  investment  thesis  remains ultra-Bullish

Rivian: Focus On Production Progress Over Perfection

  Rivian Automotive has rapidly increased EV production and has the potential to become a leading contender in the EV race. The company is still facing significant losses and needs to cut costs to reach its long-term gross margin goal. Rivian has a cheaper valuation compared to Tesla and has faster growth rates, making it an appealing investment option. With the legacy automakers facing major union strikes and potential cost increases,  Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) has the potential to quickly become a leading contender in the electric vehicle ("EV") race. The company has ramped up EV  production, and the stock dip last year has provided a much better valuation. My investment thesis is Bullish on Rivian, though a September swoon would provide a more opportune entry point. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

United Airlines: The Case For A Double

Image
Update - Sept. 12, 2023 United Airlines is back to testing the uptrend line. The case for the stock trading at $100 is simple, yet people refuse to hold airline stocks. United just has more gains ahead down at $47 with the upside potential far beyond $100.  Update - Sept. 5, 2023 The airlines are printing cash now, but the stocks fall on every slightly negative news... just crazy. -United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) dropped 4% on Tuesday after asking the Federal Aviation Administration to pause the airline’s departures nationwide. The request was lifted shortly thereafter. -"The ground stop is now lifted," UAL said on the platform formerly known as Twitter. -Earlier, the carrier said: "We are experiencing a systemwide technology issue and are holding all aircraft at their departure airports," UAL said in a message. "Flights that are already airborne are continuing to their destination as planned. We’re currently investigating and will share more information

American Airlines: Compressed Valuation Due To Irrational Fears

Image
  American Airlines' stock is near yearly lows despite the airline returning to producing massive profits. Higher fuel prices are a concern for the market, but they don't significantly impact the airline's ability to generate substantial profits. The stock is far too cheap trading at only 4.5x EPS targets while industrial transport peers trade at 3x the PE multiple. Despite the airlines returning to massive profits over the last year,  American Airlines Group  ( NASDAQ: AAL ) is back to near yearly lows. One prime reason for the weakness is higher fuel prices constantly feared by the market for  no rational reason pushing the valuation far below industrial transport peers. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the airline due to the cheap valuation from the irrational dip in the stock back below $14. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAL. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

Qualcomm: Stepping Over The Wall With AI

Image
  Qualcomm plans to expand into AI, AR/VR, and automotive chips to diversify from the mature handset market. The company sees a big opportunity in on-device generative AI chips, with potential partnerships with Meta Platforms and Microsoft. The stock is cheap at only 12x conservative EPS targets. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   As with a lot of technology companies,  Qualcomm  ( NASDAQ: QCOM ) ran into a wall last year as elevated Covid spending on electronics led to a dip in demand for key markets. Ultimately, though, the wireless chip giant will step over the  wall with new ventures into AI, AR/VR and automotive chips to expand from the mature handset market. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock trading at multi-year lows at $115. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long QCOM. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Trulieve Cannabis: Government May Finally Come To The Rescue

  Trulieve Cannabis stock soared 62% following the potential rescheduling of cannabis from a Schedule 1 controlled substance to a Schedule 3 drug. If cannabis is reclassified, Trulieve and other MSOs could potentially drop the 280E taxes and uplist to U.S. stock exchanges. Trulieve Cannabis could see a surge in free cash flow levels, greatly enhancing its capital position. TCNNF stock is cheap at only 3x the current adjusted EBITDA. As with most cannabis stocks,  Trulieve Cannabis  ( OTCQX:TCNNF ) was struggling heading into the end of August. The cannabis multi-state operator (MSO), mostly focused on Florida, faced tough business conditions due to the competitive threats in their main medical cannabis market  but the stock soared 62% following the potential for the re-scheduling of cannabis. My i nvestment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock, even after the big rally the last 2 days. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the discla