Out Fox The $treet

  Royal Caribbean reported a solid Q4'22 earnings report, but most importantly guided to a big 2023 EPS of over $3. Carnival already forecast a solid adjusted EBITDA boost in the weak FQ1'23 in a sign this year was going to be vastly improved. The stock is cheap at $12 with peers already guiding to 2025 EPS targets topping 2019 peak levels amounting to a $4+ EPS target for Carnival. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The cruise line stocks have seen a strong rally in early 2023 due in part to the likely end of tax-loss selling as the calendar turned to the new year.  Carnival Corp.  ( NYSE: CCL ) is now primed for a strong WAVE season following the earnings report of a cruise line peer. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock trading far below prior peak levels with clear signs business is about to boom this year. Read the full article on Seeking...

Update - Feb. 7 Royal Caribbean just forecast a record year in 2023. It's crazy how a lot of people were short the stock thinking BK risk was real. -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$1.12 beats by $0.22. -Revenue of $2.6B (+164.7% Y/Y) misses by $10M. -The company expects to exceed prior record Adjusted EBITDA, achieved in 2019. The company expects Adjusted Earnings per Share in the range of $3.00 to $3.60 vs consensus of $3.23. Original article posed on Jan. 13 Travel sector peers have reported numbers suggestive of a big rebound ahead for cruise lines. Royal Caribbean had predicted record EPS in 2025 topping $10 and the American Airlines numbers make this prediction appear far more realistic. The stock is cheap trading at 6x 2025 EPS targets. The market keeps doubting the cruise lines, yet  Royal Caribbean  ( NYSE: RCL ) is finally pushing recent highs. The travel sector news continues to shine in an indication of the earnings power ahead for the cruise line. My  investment thesis ...

  Royal Caribbean has started generating positive cash flows. The company has a large debt load, but EPS targets top $5 next year due to strong demand. The stock only trades at 11x '23 EPS targets and the cruise line has a path to produce higher earnings. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While  Royal Caribbean Cruises  ( NYSE: RCL ) has seen their business hit a major inflection point, the stock trades at the yearly lows. Despite the storm clouds dissipating on Covid fears, the market has now shifted to concerns on a recession in spite of  pent-up consumer demand. My investment thesis remains ultra-Bullish on the cruise lines with the disconnect between demand and stock valuations rather large at this point. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - June 24 The neg...

Delta Air Lines obtained $5.4 billion in government aid. The airline stocks trade at constant discounts to the troubled cruise liners despite better business prospects. The stock trades at a substantial discount to the market at only 4.8x drastically reduced forward EPS estimates. For years now,  Delta Air Lines  ( DAL ) has been the best-run legacy airline, yet the stock was never loved by the markets. The airline always traded at far lower ratios than the other transport stocks and now the lack of love is apparent compared to the cruise lines. My  investment thesis  remains highly bullish on the airlines and particularly Delta as a safe bet for an eventual rebound in air passenger traffic rebound. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.