Out Fox The $treet

Facebook (FB) COO, Sheryl Sandborg, had an interesting interview on CNBC today. The comments about monetizing mobile traffic is definitely positive for the stock. My biggest concern remains that all of the conversation regards monetizing traffic instead of solving the traffic problem. Anybody interested can read the summary by Julia Boorstin at mediamoney.cnbc.com . Below is one of the segmentss posted on CNBC: The interview does discuss growing users and engagement, but at no point does it address the declining traffic. The analysts made some interesting points regarding the 30% drop in desktop traffic for the 12-17 year old crowd. With that crowd leaving, it means the future college crowd will be gone as well if it isn't already. As discussed in our SA article , the comScore stats were very discouraging for a company with a $43B market cap. Long investors need to be careful. Disclsoure: No position mentioned, but might short FB within the next 72 hours....

Anybody following this blog should know by now that C&J Energy Services (CJES) is one of our favorite stocks at Stone Fox Capital. As the stock dropped below $14 back in early October, we started thinking maybe our thesis was crazy. Now with the stock attempting to break above $22, its nice to see that a respected mutual fund manager is behind the stock. Bob Auer of the Auer Growth Fund looks for stocks with a 25% increase in earnings, a 20% increase in revenue, and ones that trade below 12 times earnings. Surprised that he finds many stocks like that other than a rare bird like CJES. Supposedly he grew $100K in 1986 to $34M by the end of 2007 by sticking to that strategy. His comments on CJES via CNBC report: 5. C&J Energy Services [ CJES   22.75     1.54   ( +7.26% )   ] is riding the oil-shale boom as a provider of a wide range of premium hydraulic fracturing services for oil-shale drillers. The company has a market va...

As we wrote earlier this week  on Seeking Alpha [ Liz Claiborne Transformation Complete: A Look at Whats Left ], the transformation at Liz Claiborne (LIZ) is now complete. CEO William McComb went on CNBC this morning to discuss the transformation and the remaining brands. LIZ remains one of the top picks in our Opportunistic portfolios and especially in the retail sector. Most investors have not caught on that LIZ just turned into a growth company with great comps from kate spade and Lucky Brands. Juicy Couture is still struggling, but any turn around would just 'juice' the growth profile anymore. Not to mention, LIZ dramatically reduced the capital structure by using the proceeds from the sell of Liz Claiborne and various other brands to reduce the outstanding debt. Those 100% comps at kate spade are just mind blowing. Investors might just eat that up. Our pick for the new name is still Lucky spade! Disclsoure: Long LIZ. Please review the di...

Great quote from the CEO of Manpower today on CNBC. Executive after executive has gone on television talking about how business remains strong. Clients are doing just fine, but somebody else must be having problems since the economy is supposedly lousy. Our clients are telling us that business isn't that bad. It must be the guy down the street who has bad business. The CEO even claims that Europe remains strong.  How is that possible? According to him the conversations about business are vastly different than 2008 which remains our thesis. The market has priced in a 2008 scenario already even though it doesn't appear to be a possibility. See the video below: Disclosure: No positions. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Note: Main computer was without connection to the internet last week so I'm just now getting back to being able to post.  Interest poll results from CNBC on whether Obama should cancel his vacation due to the markets and economy or take it anyway. Surprised to see that 47% said he should cancel his vacation. Considering he tends to spook the market when he speaks wouldn't it be nice to go a week without his constant bashing of the wealthy? Of course, 53% of the voters want him to go on vacation or said it doesn't matter so maybe that's a sign that investors think the market would be better with him gone. At least a signal that him being at work sure doesn't help. Should President Obama Cancel His August Vacation? He should cancel his vacation 47% He should go on vacation 24% It doesn't matter 29% Total Votes: 13486 Not a Scientific Survey Results may not total 100% due to rounding

Interesting comments from the CEO of Cheniere Energy (LNG) on the Mad Money show. The debate continues to rage on whether the US should export the abundant natural gas supplies now provided by shale drilling. Naturally the US would want domestic supplies to fuel domestic consumption, but its apparent that the government isn't going to come forth with policy that encourages the use of nat gas for domestic vehicles. The next best alternative is for the domestic producers to export that nat gas to foreign markets where not only can they obtain higher prices, but also the use of nat gas by markets more willing to replace gasoline in vehicles with lng would actually reduce the consumption of oil. In theory, this would reduce the prices of oil though it might just increase the prices of nat gas hence diluting the benefit to the US consumer. The biggest benefit would be businesses in the sector exploring and drilling for nat gas that is now open to the global market. Employment would...

Great interview with Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital Management. Berkowitz was named Mutual Fund Manager of the Decade and has some interesting long term views on the market. Interesting that he shares some of the same stock picks as our more aggressive Opportunistic models. Both Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Regions Financial (RF) appear in his top 10 holdings. His fund has suffered this year and with his voice suffering in the interview he made possibly the quote of the day "suffering from premature accumulation". Any portfolio manager knows that being early is the same as being wrong. Even if you eventually end up long term, being a year or two early can significantly hurt performance. Berkowitz does seem too bullish on financials for us. Typically a market leader over one decade becomes a laggard the next. Similar to how the tech sector soared in the 90s, then struggled after the internet bust. Stone Fox remains bullish on financials such as Hartford Financial (HIG) ...

Mark Haines was the legendary CNBC anchor that was known to be tough but fair to guests. Unfortunately he passed away yesterday at the age of 65. May he rest in peace. These 2 clips top the list of my favorite interviews in his long history. Both clips were cut off sooner then I hoped so I'm still looking for longer versions. In this clip he calls Arianna Huffington 'clueless'. Though the MSNBC co-hosts thought Mark was being harsh and grumpy, he was actually very factual. Arianna was spewing the typical mindset of the bank bailouts. The bailouts didn't save the equity investors. In most cases such as Citigroup (C) and AIG (AIG) the equity holders lost over 90% of there value. What was actually saved was the financial system and the employees of those banks. In this clip, Mark has a disagreement with Barney Frank. The classic part is when Barney says the interview is over, Mark just goes on with the program as if losing out on the interview was no big deal.

Tonight on Fast Money on CNBC, Dennis Gartman had some sound advice on investing in general. Specifically though he was talking about the spread difference between Brent Crude and WTI. As he says during this clip, the spread will keep going until it stops. While that might sound a little arrogant to some, it really highlights how markets work. The oil market in 2008 kept going up until it stopped. All this nonsense on predictions just aren't that useful. An asset will keep going up until it stops. Just like tech stocks in April 2000 and housing a few years back. People kept calling them bubbles and stayed away, but in the process they missed out on huge gains. The key is to recognize when the rally ends. Buy and hold can work in non-bubble markets, but the worst thing an investor can do is ride an asset class up and then let all the gains evaporate. Anyway, this an important lesson for any novice investors or anybody that wants a target price. The market just doesn't work ...

Hartford Financial (HIG) reported earnings that beat estimates last week yet the stock still trades considerably below its book value around $46. Analysts even expect earnings for 2011 and 2012 in the $4 range giving them a sub 8 PE. So why does the stock still trade in the $20s and not the $50s? Beats me. Listen to the CEO, Liam McGee on the Kudlow Report on CNBC on Friday. The guy sounds very positive about the future and it clearly appears that the commercial real estate risk is behind them. Stock portfolio issues are part of the past and just about everybody dreamed up issue is overblown. Take a listen and decide for yourself. Disclosure: Long HIG in personal accounts including Covestor accounts. 

Interesting debate on Chinese Reverse Mergers between Herb Greenberg and David Gentry, president and CEO of RedChip Companies. Its interesting because of my investments in Puda Coal (PUDA) and Liwa International (LIWA) that fall into this category though they appear to be of the higher quality. The Chinese reverse merger sector is just as scary as any microcap US stock. They've got issues, but it doesn't appear to be as widespread as Herb suggests. Regardless, the investment total in my models has been kept low via diversification which is always the key when investing in small companies in the first place whether China based or not. The US isn't that much better then China regardless of what people think. Interesting theater so its worth watching..... Have to agree with the guy from RedChip that Herb is focusing on the wrong stuff and not the hard facts. Has he been to China to view the factories or not? Claiming all reverse mergers are fraud is just a horrible general...

Bernie Marcus, Co-Founder of Home Depot (HD), had some interesting words on CNBC today. It's always nice to see somebody say how it is instead of being all political on TV. Interesting idea on the reality show for Geithner..... 'Geithner Does Small Business'. Yikes, did he really say that? And the bumber sticker over Clinton's mouth that says 'Jobs Stupid'. Is that for Bill or Hillary? Lol...

While the Sept/Oct period tends to be weak, the mid term election cycle for the President tends to be very bullish. Historically the stock market does really well during the Presidential cycle and according to Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial, on CNBC its usually a 50% run. That 50% would be all the way up 1,500. Much more then I'd expect, but if Obama tames his liberal agenda and becomes much more pro business I guess anything is possible.

Some interesting facts from Sam Stovall of S & P. Basically the market tends to rally prior to a 15% correction. If not, it almost always leads to a new bear market that is defined as 20% down. When hitting a bear market, the average drop is usually 30%. So we either bounce off 1,040 or it really is likely that we hit the 20 or 30% declines. Find it interesting that at times of such well defined trading levels that so many experts like Sam want to 'wait and see'. With commissions so low, it seems better to have bought the lows today with tight stops if the market shows any further weakness leading to the 15% correction and hence likely following panic repeat of 2008. Otherwise, an investor ends up buying at much higher prices in the 1,100 level when it supposedly is safer, but you then risk a drop back to 1,040.