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Showing posts from October, 2022

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Trulieve Cannabis: Relative Safety

  Trulieve Cannabis trades at multi-year lows near $10. The MSO offers substantial upside on any federal legalization, but the large MSO provides relative safety in the sector. The stock is cheap trading at only 4x forward EBITDA targets. As signs start pointing to some version of the SAFE Banking Act getting approval later this year, investors need to start positioning in U.S. cannabis companies set to benefit from access to the banking system and uplisting  to major stock exchanges.  Trulieve Cannabis  ( OTCQX:TCNNF ) is one of the safer options to play federal legalization while protected in a scenario where legalization again fails to obtain approval. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the multi-state operators (MSOs) set to benefit the most from changes to the cannabis rules at the federal level. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

Ouster: Priced For Death

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  Ouster trades below $1 despite a building contract revenue opportunity and growing customer base. The company just released new Lidar sensors based on an advanced digital chip improving detection range, precision and accuracy. The stock trades at cash value despite a rapidly growing revenue base and being valued at 1.5x '23 sales targets. A lot of SPAC deals were disasters, but some companies were just irrationally thrown away due to the stock market not understanding the business.  Ouster  ( NYSE: OUST ) continues to build a large order book as the company moves  closer and closer to scale Lidar sensor production. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock with the company releasing new sensors and cutting costs to eliminate share dilution going forward. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Nov. 11 Ouster shook off the odd reactio...

Snap: Planning For A Hurricane That Probably Won't Arrive

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  Snap reported a solid Q3, but the company guided to a potentially weak Q4 on some huge negative assumptions. The social media company now trades at only 3x sales with the market not accurately viewing the recent revenue slowdown in light of the massive growth the last 2 years. Snap reported strong 19% DAU growth providing a better signal on normalized growth. The stock is too cheap here with the panic sell off. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Snap  ( NYSE: SNAP ) just reported a solid quarter and guided to very conservative Q4 numbers, causing the market to run in fear. The social media company is oddly preparing for a hurricane by announcing another $500 million share buyback. My  investment thesis  is finally Bullish on the stock following a Bearish view since nearly $60 due to Snap trading based on pending doom I think is unlikely to arrive. Read the full article ...

Rumble: Not Ready For Prime Time Yet

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  Rumble continues to fall as investors grasp with post SPAC valuation concerns. The video-sharing platform is set to release Q3 results on November 14. The stock has more appeal around $5 after the market fully grasp quarterly revenues are only in the $5 to $6 million range. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Rumble  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) recently closed the SPAC deal with CF Acquisition Corp. VI to go public. The video-sharing platform has a lot of promise to open up the online video market, but the company still faces tons of  growing pains. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock until after company publicly releases quarterly results and shareholders face the limited sales levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Nov. 15 Rumble reported decen...

ChargePoint: Still Living On EV Hype

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  ChargePoint still has an amazing $4.3 billion market cap, despite selling charging stations mostly at cost. The company still has no meaningful gross profit from subscriptions. The stock is far too expensive at 6x FY24 sales, despite the business burning tons of cash each quarter. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Even though  ChargePoint Holdings  ( NYSE: CHPT ) is trading closer to the lows now, the stock is still living off EV hype. The stock constantly rallies up to $20 providing a better opportunity for longs to dump shares, but another rally isn't guaranteed as  the quarter ahead will ultimately highlight cash burn concerns. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the EV charging station stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Dec. 2 Cha...

Apple: Still Dead Money Until At Least FY26

  Apple has now fallen over $25 since the dead money call over 7 months ago. The tech giant continues to see key products pushed out with the 2nd-generation AR/VR models potentially delayed until 1H'25. The stock is still expensive at nearly 20x FY26 EPS targets. About 7 months ago, our view was that  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) was  dead money  for at least 4 years. The stock was at $166 when the article was published and now trades at $140, so far living  up to the dead money theory. My  investment thesis  still predicts the tech giant won't see any upside until at least FY26 due to the constant push out of key new products. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Tilray Brands: Not A Good U.S. Legalization Play

Tilray Brands fell after reporting another weak quarter for the period ending in August. The Canadian cannabis stock had rallied on hopes the U.S. would finally legalized weed. The stock isn't the best way to play U.S. legalization with a whole host of smaller U.S. MSOs the ones likely to see the biggest gains. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »     Tilray Brands  ( NASDAQ: TLRY ) has been one of the most loved cannabis stocks, yet the company hasn't produced any results warranting the love. The Canadian LP reported another weak quarter following a rally on the  marijuana reforms announced by President Biden. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock, as investors continue to rush into the stock on unwarranted hype on U.S. legalization hopes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer pa...

Joby Aviation Doesn't Need Immediate Cash, Don't Panic

  Joby Aviation continues to proceed towards 2024 operations launch. The company filed a shelf registration to raise up to $1.0 billion, but the eVTOL manufacturer already has a cash balance of $1.2 billion. The stock isn't fully appreciating the business opportunity in the future. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The flying taxi future appears bright, but firms like  Joby Aviation  ( NYSE: JOBY ) will spend billions over the next few years to certify and produce new aircraft. The good news for investors is that the eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and  landing) manufacturer has plenty of cash to produce aircraft and start operations making the selloff following the proposal of selling securities as irrational. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock, as the company gets closer to FAA certification. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  D...