Out Fox The $treet

  Update Mar. 28, 2023 After reporting a better than expected quarter, investors shouldn't take the FY23 guidance to heart. The cruise line continues to head back to normal operations with massive profits in the years ahead. Carnival shouldn't be trading near all-time lows.  Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.55  beats by $0.05 . Revenue of $4.43B (+166.7% Y/Y)   beats by $130M . Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2023 was $382 million, better than the December guidance range of $250 million to $350 million, despite a $31 million  unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency rates since December guidance. Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 billion to $4.1 billionIncludes approximately $0.5 billion unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency compared to 2019 Sequential improvement in each quarter in adjusted EBITDA per ALBD compared to 2019, driven by closing the gap in occupancy to 2019 levels while achieving net per diems above 2019 levels Original art...

  AMD reports Q3 earnings after the close on November 1. Intel provided every indication the chip giant has to boost margins and cut costs reducing any fears of the company dumping chips on the market. AMD remains cheap for the long-term opportunity in Datacenter, but the stock will trade volatile in the short term. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Advanced Micro Devices  ( NASDAQ: AMD ) rallied to end last week after  Intel  ( INTC ) reported better than feared results. The chip giant was feared to have caused the inventory problem leading to the  big preliminary cut  to Q3'22 estimates for AMD. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the company ultimately taking market share from Intel as the inventory correction in the PC market is resolved by next year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please re...

  Spirit Airlines forecast strong financial targets for Q2/Q3. The airline is poised to grow the fleet by a 15% CAGR going forward. The stock is cheap at $37 as EPS targets start pointing toward $4-plus. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Despite U.S. airline traffic only recently topping 50% of 2019 levels, Spirit Airlines ( SAVE ) already is back to operating close to normal. As yields rise, the airline will start generating solid profits in the next few quarters. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on Spirit Airlines as the stock is poised to return to previous highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SAVE. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Snap reported mixed Q2 results. The company guided towards highly disappointing Q3 DAUs at only 243 million. The stock is the most expensive in the social media sector and should be avoided without leading financial results. Snap   (NYSE: SNAP )  is amongst the cohort of technology stocks priced for perfection when the company is imperfect. While plenty of stocks trade as if the economy doesn't recover to previous levels, Snap trades at levels suggesting a return to strong growth in 2021, despite the company still forecasting a tough ad market in Q3. With the company still losing substantial amounts on a quarterly basis, my  investment thesis  remains negative on the stock up in the $20s with a market cap topping $40 billion prior to the earnings report. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Southwest Airlines reported mixed Q1 results as the coronavirus hit March revenues. The airline now has access to over $13 billion of cash after raising an additional $3 billion of funds. The company has reduced cash burn to ~$10 million. The stock is a bargain at 7x normalized earnings, but the airline isn't the best deal in the sector. Southwest Airlines  ( LUV ) has seen a tepid rally following  Q1 results  as the company is poised to quickly wipe out the daily cash burn. The general airline industry was up over 10% on the quarterly news and bullish signs of  reopening the economy  and international travel with passenger tests. Unfortunately, this airline caused a self-inflicted wound by rushing out equity offerings when cash wasn't needed. Under $30, my  investment thesis  remains bullish on the stock while acknowledging that better upside exists in other sector stocks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure...

Twitter (TWTR)  failed to deliver on revenues, but the reaccelerating of DAUs will lead to the eventual stock rebound. DAUs surged by 21 million over last Q3 to 145 million versus 139 million in the prior quarter..  Rich Greenfield ✔ @RichLightShed CHART: Daily use of Twitter accelerating globally -- fastest growth qtr yet $ TWTR # engagement -- monetizable daily active user (mDAU) growth up 17% against a 9% comp in Q3 ‘18 123 6:19 AM - Oct 24, 2019  ·  Manhattan, NY Twitter Ads info and privacy 54 people are talking about this A 20% decline here is far too much. The stock has seen the EV collapse to only $20 billion. Buy on dips starting next week.  More commentary - WhoTrades More research - Twitter Stubs Its Toe Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Are these numbers good? For Q2,  Snap ($SNAP)  reported numbers that beat analyst estimates, but the social messaging company still had a free cash flow loss of $103 million.  With the after-hours rally above $16, the stock now has a market cap of $25 billion and trades at about 12x 2020 revenues. Investors are getting too aggressive on Snap with the company still burning massive amounts of cash for a company with less than $400 million in quarterly revenue.  More research: Snap: Irrational Respect More commentary on WhoTrades .  Disclosure: No position. Please  review  the  disclaimer  page for more  details . 

Nice rally for  Twitter (TWTR)  today has the stock breaking the recent downtrend. The stock clearly wants to test the $40 highs again.  More commentary on WhoTrades Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

After the close, Apple (AAPL) updated the market with a big guide down for FQ1. The new revenue target is down about 7% from expectations.

JNJ dipped after underwhelming guidance for 2018. The stock has lagged the market rally due to a stretched valuation and limited growth. The lack of additional capital returns is a negative signal for the stock. Despite the gains of the last year,   Johnson & Johnson   ( JNJ ) hasn't actually outperformed the market. In fact, the stock has now vastly underperformed the market since the start of November and reinforces the   valuation questions   that exist with this healthcare stock and ongoing negative signals from the company.  Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.   

LendingClub plunged following disappointing Q4 guidance. Most of the impacts are short-term adjustments to the credit model or temporary market conditions. The fintech guided to record revenues for Q4 and expects further growth in 2018. LendingClub  ( LC ) plunged 16% in the first day of trading following  Q3 results after taking a hit leading into earnings. Despite record revenues, the market was highly displeased with projections even considering a highly attractive valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long LC. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The FQ4 results for Disney ( DIS ) were predictably weak. The ongoing weakness in cable networks was hidden last year by the strength of movies and the media giant is now getting hit by weaknesses in both segments. Incredibly though, the stock still trades near $100 and at levels that mostly exceed the price last year. Is now really the time to own Disney as the company embarks on a digital shift? Disney missed both top and bottom line analyst estimates in a sign of how bad the times are now. The media giant has missed revenue estimates for five consecutive quarters, but the company didn't previous miss EPS forecasts. Disney faces multiple issues that can't offset the positive momentum from their parks and resorts division.

Sprint reports improving FQ2 results. The highlights and CEO message aren't supportive of regulatory approval of a merger with T-Mobile. Net debt position remains a problem for stock gains absent a merger and industry consolidation. Along with  FQ2 results ,  Sprint  ( S ) released data points that aren't supportive of an industry needing consolidation. My  investment thesis  continues to suggest the stock isn't worth much more than the current price based on the results and the reported deal on the table with  T-Mobile  ( TMUS ). Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

GrubHub surges following strong revenue guidance for Q4. The market appears to misunderstand the inclusion of Eat24 numbers into the estimates. Solid financial metrics support the effective handling of competition. Stock valuation remains a question as EBITDA will trail sales growth in 2018. In no real surprise,  GrubHub  ( GRUB ) easily fought off competition during Q3. As the company integrates recent acquisitions, the bigger issue is valuation now that the online food order and delivery service added debt to the balance sheet and boosted sales. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Chipotle dips below $300 following highly disappointing Q3 results. The negative EPS trend still signals to avoid the stock. The downward shift in store opening growth will further impact the long-term potential. After the close,  Chipotle Mexican Grill  ( CMG ) reported highly disappointing  Q3 results . The numbers were so bad that my  previous article  questioned whether $300 would hold and now the focus can shift to the $250 level. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Citigroup reported solid Q3 results. Capital returns provided strong tailwinds for the stock. Citigroup offers the best yield in the large financial sector. Prior to the open,  Citigroup  ( C ) reported another quarter of  solid earnings , backing up my long-held  investment thesis  that the financial was a huge value. During the quarter, the large financial ramped up capital returns, providing a large tailwind that the market keeps fighting. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long C. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Baidu reported Q1 results that beat estimates. The company returned to revenue growth after two quarters of declines following the new Internet advertising laws in China. The valuation gap with Alphabet has grown incredibly large suggesting the soon-to-be faster growing Baidu has plenty of upside. The  Q1 '17 results  prove that  Baidu  (NASDAQ: BIDU ) is finally emerging from a nearly yearlong bout with tighter Internet advertising regulations in China. The requirement to verify online marketing accounts set the business back nearly a year. Please see the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long Baidu. Please see the disclosure page for more details. 

Twitter reported that Q3 results beat estimates, but the market focused on a lack of revenue guidance for Q4. The social-media giant generated further growth in key user metrics that is far more important than revenues at this point. The stock remains one to own around the recent lows. After an initial positive reaction to  Q3 results , Twitter (NYSE: TWTR ) is trading mostly flat. The market appears more focused on the lack of revenue guidance for Q4 over the key re-accelerating user growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Freeport-McMoRan missed Q3 analyst estimates. The copper miner made huge strides in proving the cash flow thesis. The stock trades at an attractive valuation now that cash flows are set to pay for debt reduction. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX )  spent the last year cutting capital expenses and reducing costs to improve cash flows. The biggest story in the next few quarters is to see whether the copper miner makes the necessary progress towards those solid cash flows and current copper prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

AT&T reported Q3 numbers that fail to prove out the benefits of the DirecTV deal. The bundling of services has failed to add the most important subscribers. The large debt load makes the synergies in the Time Warner deal a must and the outcome of the DirecTV integration highly questions a positive outcome. In the midst of agreeing to buy Time Warner (NYSE: TWX ), AT&T (NYSE: T ) rushed out  Q3 earnings  a few days early. The biggest issue is that the synergy benefits from DirecTV aren't showing up in the results. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.