Out Fox The $treet

So much for that much bally hooed double dip recession. The Philly Fed Index for November came in at a surprisingly rich 22.5 up from a 1.0 in October. It was also much higher then the 5.0 consensus estimates. The 22.5 reading was the largest number since last December. Leading the way were huge increases of 15 points in new orders and shipments. The main negative continues to be higher input prices due mainly to the sharp rise in commodity prices. Inventories saw a big jump of nearly 13 points, but the overall number remained a -5.9 still showing that for the most part manufactures maintain very lean inventories. Hence, the likely huge jump in orders. Firms continue to underestimate the strength of this recovery. The stock markets were already up strong from the potential Ireland bailout and the GM IPO. This news helped push the SP500 back over the 20ema around 1,192. Currently trading at 1,198 the markets appear poised a back a likely definitely run towards new recovery highs a...

The Philly Fed Index reported a sharp increase for Sept of 14.3 above the consensus of 8. Making this the best report since June 2007 and the first 2 month increase since October last year showing that manufacturing has completely turned the corner. The interesting notes were that inventories and hours worked continued to decline showing that even with the corner turned, pent up demand is going to be huge. Profits as well will be strong with more shipments from fewer employees. All of this news seems bullish for the market though not somewhat bearish for employees.

As this economy has seen in many other reports, the outlook for the Philly Fed Index surged to 15 year highs. The last time this Index saw these same levels for the 6 month outlook was at the end of the 2003 recession. The current activity was also one of the highest seen in the last 19 months. And many a analyst has claimed that 'green shoots' are becoming 'yellow weeds' well the outlook data just doesn't support that theory. Broad indicators of future activity showed significant improvement this month. The future general activity index remained positive for the sixth consecutive month and increased markedly from 47.5 in May to 60.1, its highest reading since September 2003 The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -22.6 in May to -2.2 this month, its highest reading since September 2008 when the index was positive for one month (the index has been negative for 18 of the past 19 months, a...