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Showing posts from May, 2026

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Serve Robotics: Immaterial Progress

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Update - May 7, 2026 Still blown away that the 2026 revenue target isn't even 50% of the revenue potential of the 2,000 delivery robots placed in service at the end of 2025, much less the opportunity to expand and the addition of hospital robots. -Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.50 beats by $0.01. -Revenue of $3M (+581.8% Y/Y) misses by $0.03M. -The Company is reaffirming its 2026 financial guidance of approximately $26 million in full year revenue (consensus at $25.99M); and 2026 Non-GAAP operating expense of $160 to $170 million. Serve Robotics only reported Q1 daily active robots at just 812. The company was only running at 40% capacity.  Original article posted on March 11 Serve Robotics Inc. remains in early-stage scaling, with 2,000 robots deployed but Q4 revenue at only $0.88 million. SERV's current per-robot revenue is $1,185 per quarter, far below the $7,500 needed to meet its $60–80 million annual revenue goal. Management guided to only $26 million in 2026 revenue, significant...

Super Micro: Exiting Survival Mode

  Super Micro Computer continues to see robust AI demand and innovative infrastructure products outweigh recent internal and external controversies. SMCI posted a revenue miss in FQ3'26 due to data center delays but exceeded earnings targets, with gross margins rebounding to 9.9% (10.1% non-GAAP). Management maintains FY26 revenue guidance near $40 billion and is rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity, targeting far over $100 billion in annualized output. The stock only trades at ~10x conservative EPS targets with a base case for far higher EPS targets based on the revenue capacity and normalized gross margins. Super Micro Computer, Inc.  ( SMCI ) has been in the hot seat the last couple of years due to internal and external employee actions, but the company always seems to come out strong. Due to overwhelming AI demand and compelling AI  infrastructure products, customers appear to quickly move beyond ethical concerns. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bul...

CoreWeave: Focus On Prospects, Not Growing Pains

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Update - May 7, 2026 CoreWeave reports backlog surges to nearly $100 billion. Solid quarter, but the neocloud remains in the early phases of growth. CoreWeave has plans to grow 8x by 2030 with 8 GW of power versus only 1 GW to end Q1.  The stock has finally rallied off the lows, but the stock still has plenty of resistance above $140.  Update - April 9, 2026 CoreWeave could have a backlog approaching $90 billion now after signing a new $21 billion deal with Meta Platforms. The neocloud guided to Q1'26 revenue of up to $2 billion, so the backlog starting point is $85 billion plus what additional unannounced deals contribute to the backlog.  -CoreWeave shares rose 7% in premarket trading Thursday after the company announced an expanded long-term agreement with Meta Platforms (META) to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032, valued at about $21B. -The deal builds on an existing partnership and will support Meta’s AI development, with the company using CoreWeave’s pl...