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Showing posts from 2024

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Macy's: Still Looking For A Bigger Bid

  Macy's has a buyout bid of $24 per share, up from the original offer of $21. The real estate value of Macy's is estimated to be worth double the current stock price. Macy's plans to focus on luxury stores and close underperforming locations while expanding the Bluemercury beauty brand. Macy's stock only trades at 7x EPS targets that appear conservative. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The retail sector has faced a tough time since the economy reopened after Covid shutdowns, which led to consumers turning attention towards experiences and travel.  Macy's  ( NYSE: M ) still reported solid results in 2023, and along with a  potential buyout bid, the stock should trade much higher. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock, even after the large bounce off the 2023 lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long M. Please review

Plug Power: Still On The Bleeding Edge

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Update - Apr. 23, 2024 Plug Power now has major hydrogen plants in production, now the company has to  start eliminating all of the extra costs for fuel. Stock has the potential for a double bottom low with the elimination of high fuel costs.  -Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) +1.2% pre-market Tuesday after saying it has reached nameplate capacity at the company's hydrogen plants in Georgia and Tennessee, with its Louisiana joint venture with Olin on track to achieve mechanical completion by the end of Q3. -Plug said its Georgia hydrogen plant, home to the largest Proton Exchange Membrane electrolyzer system in the U.S., has been running at a stable rate of 15 tons/day since the beginning of April. -With Plug's Tennessee plant now operating at nameplate capacity of 10 tons/day, the company said it has achieved a total liquid hydrogen capacity of 25 tons/day, which can fulfill roughly half of its customers' green hydrogen demand. Original article posted on Apr. 5, 2024 Plug Power In

Snap: 7 Million Reasons To Buy The Dip

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Update - Apr. 17, 2024 Congress spends a lot of time talking about a TikTok ban, but it just seems like talk. Snap is very intriguing here at $10 based on Snapchat+ with an outlier potential for the ban.  -Snapchat surged during Wednesday trading following news that the proposed bill forcing TikTok to divest from ByteDance or face a U.S. ban might get fast tracked. -House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to include the TikTok bill in a fast-track package that includes aid for Ukraine and Israel, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. Original article posted on March 27 Snap Inc.'s Q1 '24 guidance for DAUs and revenue fell slightly below consensus, but disappointed investors missed the progress on returning towards 15% growth. Snapchat+ is growing towards the 14 million target for the end of 2024 with an updated number for the end of Q1 providing a catalyst. The stock only trades at 4x EV/S targets, a discount to social media peers. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Member

Roblox: Major Ads Catalyst

  Roblox Corporation is partnering with PubMatic to launch immersive video ads on its platform, targeting major brands and driving revenue growth. The U.S. video game-advertising business is expected to exceed $10 billion in 2025, presenting a significant revenue opportunity for Roblox. Roblox stock trades at only 5.5x EV/S, any dip provides a great buying opportunity. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Roblox Corporation  ( NYSE: RBLX ) ended last year back in growth mode, yet the stock hasn't recovered beyond the post-Covid highs around $40 for years now. The mobile gaming platform has been a strong growth machine when normalized  for the volatility over the last few years. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock, especially on a dip below the current support around $36. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Plea

Trump Media: Excitement Set To Slump

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Updated - April 8  As expected, Trump Media is slumping after an initial burst following the consummation of the SPAC merger with Digital World. DJT is already down 50% from the initial highs.  Original article published on April 2  Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. completed its SPAC deal with Digital World Acquisition Corp, but shareholders now face major risks with the stock market shifting focus away from SPAC promises. The business has done very little since launching in early 2021, with total 2023 revenue of only $4.1 million. The stock has a fully diluted valuation of up to $10 billion despite weak financials and limited sings of innovation. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After a very lengthy process and a difficult road,  Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. , or  TMTG,  ( NASDAQ: DJT ) finally completed the SPAC deal with Digital World Acquisition Cor

Ouster: Built To Survive And Thrive

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Update - April 3 2024 Ouster is holding strong at $10 despite the analyst downgrade.  Chardan Research downgraded Ouster ( NYSE: OUST ) to a Neutral rating on Wednesday after having the stock set at Buy. Analyst Brian Dobson said the firm is moving to the sidelines with the lidar technology stock closing in on the $10 price target. Dobson  also noted that recent share price appreciation may have been bolstered by short covering action. He also warned that Chardan Research's forward price to revenue multiple on Ouster  has risen 150 basis points compared with the preceding six-month average for the metric. Original article posted on March 27 Ouster reported strong 2023 Lidar bookings of $142 million. The company's Q1'24 revenue guidance exceeds consensus estimates, indicating solid growth in the Lidar sensor market. Stock only has a market cap of $200 million, barely above the bookings level for last year. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox Th

Rumble: Don't Chase TikTok Hype

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Update - Mar. 27, 2024 Rumble reported another in Q4'23. All of the new content isn't turning into usage growth. The stock likely falls back to $5. -GAAP EPS of -$0.14 beats by $0.08. - Rev. of $20.4M (+2.2% YoY) misses by $7.7M. -Avg. Minutes Watched Per Month were 10.5B, compared to 10.7B in Q3'23. Original article posted on March 13  Rumble Inc. surged after announcing a potential partnership with ByteDance for a cloud service, but the likelihood of such a partnership is low. The focus should be on Rumble's Q4 2023 results and its partnership with Barstool Sports, rather than the TikTok deal. Rumble has the potential for significant growth in 2024, especially with a focus on political content and the 2024 Presidential election. Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) has been on a tear since announcing a partnership with Barstool Sports back in January. The video platform has longed announced big content partnerships, but the company has paid aggressively to acquire talent,

Celsius: Only Getting Started

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Update - Mar. 27, 2024 Celsius is now down nearly 8% on the day on news of new incentives for PepsiCo (PEP) to do their job. No details were released.  Celsius Holdings  added an amendment to the distribution agreement inked with PepsiCo  in 2022. The change will provide PepsiCo with an incentive program designed to incentivize and compensate it for its continued  focus on and actions to support the sale of Celsius'  licensed products. The amendment will boost PepsiCo's  average targeted margin on the sale of most licensed products. The amendment also covers products sold through promotional activity. Specific terms were undisclosed by the parties due to competitive reasons. Update - Feb. 29, 2024 Prior to the market open, Celsius reported another strong quarter. The energy drink company again smashed sales estimates and grew by nearly 95%. The stock has surged to new ATHs in no surprise considering the prime EV/S multiple nearly matched the one for Monster Beverage (MNST) wit

SoundHound: Too Much AI Hype Heading Into Q4 Earnings (Rating Downgrade)

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Update - March 14, 2024 SoundHound AI continues to surge despite reporting a disappointing Q4'23 and guiding to disappointing numbers for 2024 and 2025 as follows:  2024 - $70M 2025 - $100M The stock has surged to a $3 billion market cap for no logical reason.  Original article posted Feb. 27  SoftBank and Nvidia have made small investments in SoundHound AI, bringing attention to the company and causing its stock to soar. The voice AI company is entering Q4 '23 earnings with high expectations, but needs to prove its ability to execute the business plan. SOUN stock has soared above $7, pushing the market cap to nearly $2 billion for a company with 2024 consensus sales targets of only $69 million. SoundHound AI, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: SOUN ) is one of the prime go to artificial intelligence ("AI") stocks to play the volatile AI boom. The company is more than just a company with "AI" in the name, but the voice AI stock probably  doesn't warrant the recent massive

Innoviz Technologies: Ready To Fly

  Innoviz Technologies reported a blockbuster quarter with revenues surging 846%. The Lidar company made strong progress with key customers BMW and Volkswagen and grew a massive order book. The stock has a minimal market cap for the opportunity ahead while the company has reduced costs to limit cash burn. Last week,  Innoviz Technologies  ( NASDAQ: INVZ ) confirmed the company is moving full speed ahead with Lidar sensors entering production deals for the automotive market. The market just ignored the stellar growth and clear signs the company has exited  the pre-revenue phase. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the Lidar stock, which is still trading near the all-time lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Lumen Technologies: Don't Mistakenly Look Back

Lumen Technologies' Q4'24 results show all key metrics in decline, indicating the business has not turned around. The company's perpetual restructuring and constant race to the bottom are major issues for its turnaround strategy. Lumen's debt restructuring has resulted in higher interest expenses of $175 million at the midpoint hitting cash flows, making it a stock to avoid. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After warning investors months ago to not look back at an opportunity to invest in the beaten down  Lumen Technologies  ( NYSE: LUMN ), a positive move by the stock following Q4'24 results provided some hope  the telecom had indeed turned around the business. After reviewing the results, this most definitely doesn't appear the case with all key metrics in decline. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock, even down at only $1. Read the

Snap Up More Shares

Update - February 6, 2024 Q4 numbers were solid, but the market isn't happy. Snap is down some 30% after hours despite guiding towards Q1 revenue growth of up to 15%. The stock is a bargain on massive weakness due to the strong move towards subscriptions.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.02. -Rev of $1.36B (+5% Y/Y) misses by $20M. -DAUs increased 10% year-over-year to 414 million Guidance Rev of $1,095 million to $1,135 million vs $1.12B consensus, implying YoY growth of 11% to 15%. -Snapchat+, our subscription service that offers exclusive, experimental, and pre-release features grew from 2 million to  7 million subscribers in 2023, and exited the year with an annualized revenue run rate of $249 million. Original article published on Dec. 21, 2023 Snap Inc. shares have doubled in the last quarter and have significant upside potential. The Snapchat+ subscription service has seen explosive growth, with the potential to quickly surpass $500 million in annualized revenue in ear