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Showing posts from 2024

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United Airlines: Strong Read From Delta's Earnings

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Update - Oct. 16, 2024 United Airlines has soared to post-Covid highs after a strong Q3. The airline now expects a 2024 EPS of $10+ for a stock only reaching $70 today after the 10% rally.  Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.33  beats by $0.16 . Revenue of $14.8B (+2.5% Y/Y)  beats by $70M . Announced a $1.5B share buyback program, with $500M to be purchased during the remainder of 2024. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Oct. 11 United Airlines is favored over Delta following the IT outage. The airline sector is normalizing post-Covid, with United well-positioned for higher profitability and potential capital returns to shareholders. United trades at 5x 2025 EPS targets, with a projected 14% earnings growth, and has significantly reduced its debt, enhancing financial stability. With a legacy airline struggling with an IT outage,  United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Rivian: Don't Sweat The Speed Bumps

Rivian is focused on long-term growth, aiming to produce over 600K EVs annually by the end of the decade despite current production setbacks. Investors should not be swayed by short-term issues; Rivian's retooling and cost-reduction efforts are expected to improve gross margins and profitability. The company's production capacity has increased, and new vehicle models like the R2 and R3 will drive future growth and revenue. Rivian's current market cap of $10 billion presents a buying opportunity, with significant upside potential as the company scales and improves efficiencies. Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RIVN ) is busy building an EV brand and platform for the future while investors are trading the stock based on everyday moves. The EV manufacturer has definitely hit some speed bumps this year, but investors shouldn't trade  the stock based on short-term details. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-bullish on Rivian heading towards the business turning gross pro

SoFi: Don't Give Up Now

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 Update - Oct. 14, 2024 SoFi is approaching $10 on news of a loan agreement with Fortress. The stock is still cheap despite almost doubling in the last few months. The fintech traded at $10 during 2023 and has grown substantially during this period.  -SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock jumped 6.6% in Monday premarket trading after the digital bank announced a $2B loan platform agreement for personal loans with funds managed by affiliates of Fortress Investment Group. -The pact will expand SoFi's capabilities in its loan platform business, where the company refers prequalified borrowers to loan origination partners as well as originates loans on behalf of third parties. Original article posted on Sept. 25  SoFi Technologies, Inc. has experienced significant revenue growth since going public, yet its stock remains undervalued, presenting a strong buying opportunity for investors. CEO Anthony Noto predicts increased loan demand due to Fed interest rate cuts, further boosting SoFi&#

Roblox: Potential Beast Mode Unlocked

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  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Update - Oct. 8, 2024 Hindenburg announced a short on Roblox. The mobile gaming company rejects the short report mostly focused on questions on user metrics, not the bookings numbers.  The research firm notably points how large reported losses while ignoring the strong free cash flows due to how the company has to report bookings. The short report is hard to take serious.  Update - Aug. 1, 2024 Roblox is slipping after reporting strong Q2 numbers and guiding up on 2024 bookings. The dip could be related to the CFO leaving. The stock only trades at ~4x EV/S targets for 2025.  Bookings for 2024 are expected in the $4.18-$4.23 billion range, up from $4.00-$4.10 billion.  Free cash flow forecast was raised to $505-$535 million from $350-$420 million. Q2 average daily active users were 79.5 million, up 21% from last year Q2 bookings per DAU on

Joby Aviation: Commercial Launch Around The Corner

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  Update - Oct. 2, 2024 Joby Aviation is primed for a big 2025 with another investment from Toyota while the stock is set to bounce off support.  Shares of Joby Aviation ( NYSE: JOBY ) were launched more than  20% higher  in Wednesday’s premarket trading thanks to another $500M investment by Japanese carmaker Toyota Motor Corp ( NYSE: TM ). The investment will enable Joby ( JOBY ) to  expand its commercialization of an electric air taxi and bring Toyota’s ( TM ) total investment in Joby ( JOBY ) to $894M. The investment will be made in the form of cash for common stock. “The knowledge and support shared by Toyota have been instrumental in Joby's success, and we look forward to deepening our relationship as we deliver on our shared vision for the future of air travel," Joby founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt said in a  statement . Original article posted on Sept. 20 Joby Aviation is nearing a major aircraft order with Virgin Atlantic, bolstering its potential for a significant order

Palo Alto Networks: Platformization Isn't Working

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  Palo Alto Networks' shift to platformization led to a $100 stock drop, but the stock has already mostly recovered. Despite a 20% RPO growth target, revenue growth lags at 13-14%, with EPS only rising 10% due to AI spending. The stock remains overpriced, trading at high multiples despite modest growth forecasts and potential risks from the CrowdStrike outage. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » At the start of the year,  Palo Alto Networks, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: PANW ) shocked the market with a planned strategy shift to the "platformization" concept. The stock fell about $100 on the news, yet the cybersecurity stock is now back close to prior  levels. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on Palo Alto Networks with growth still struggling to meet the elevated valuation levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review

Pinterest: Market Constantly Overreacts

Updated - Sept. 25  Oppenheimer sees nearly 50% upside on the $31 stock.  Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Pinterest ( NYSE: PINS ) with an "Outperform" rating on Tuesday. They think the company's platform is lending itself well to direct response advertising and believe investments in engagement and monetization will drive upside to long-term investor estimates, helped by its more  than 500 million monthly users. The research firm noted that while PINS's DAU base is the smallest among social media companies, they see upside to engagement. They also view the company's valuation as attractive at 12x EBITDA. Pinterest has a PT of $45, implying an upside of 48%.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Originally posted on Aug. 23 Pinterest produces consistent revenue growth, but the stock is struggling to gain traction. The social media company grew MAUs in Q

Snap: 11+ Million Reasons To Like

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Update - Sept. 19 Snap making a run after a solid Partner Event with a focus on AI and A/R glasses. The stock could quickly close the gap to $13.  Originally posted on Sept. 8 Snap has fallen to multi-year lows despite strong sales growth and a promising subscription service, making it an undervalued investment below $9. The social messaging company reported 850 million MAUs and 432 million DAUs, with Snapchat+ boosting subscriptions to 11 million. The market is overly focused on volatile advertising revenue, ignoring Snap's potential $700 million in recurring subscription fees by the end of 2024. SNAP stock trades at only 3x forward EV/S targets, significantly lower than peers like Meta and Pinterest, highlighting a substantial market disconnect. In an odd move,  Snap, Inc.  ( NYSE: SNAP ) has fallen back to multi-year lows despite reporting strong sales growth in the last quarter. The social messaging company clearly isn't firing on all cylinders, but the  market has complete

Under Armour: Return To Glory

  Under Armour's stock initially rose with founder Kevin Plank's return and FQ1 results but fell due to higher FY25 restructuring charges misunderstood by the market. The restructuring charges increased to $140-$160 million, causing a slight rise in operating loss, yet adjusted EPS remains on target. The stock's valuation at only 0.6x EV/S targets suggests substantial upside compared to peers like Lululemon and Nike, on top of the potential for the brand's resurgence. Under Armour, Inc.  ( NYSE: UA )( NYSE: UAA ) seems to fall sometimes just for releasing news. The stock jumped following FQ1 results and signs that Stephen Curry is working with the athletic apparel retailer to  expand the Curry Brand, yet a simple update crushed the stock. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock, with the return of founder Kevin Plank set to help return the company to glory. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UA. Please review the disclaimer page

Roku: Still Priced For Disaster

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Update - Sept. 11, 2024 Roku looks ready to again hear at $70 after the Cleveland Research note.  Cleveland Research said on Wednesday that third quarter results for Roku ( NASDAQ: ROKU ) would likely be ahead of consensus, helped by linear gains, TTD tailwinds, CPM investments and execution. "3Q momentum sounds strong, driven by incremental linear TV gains, tailwinds from programmatic efforts, and  solid ROKU execution on new products/initiatives—ROKU leveraging supply growth to win on price," the research firm said in their September 11 commentary. Cleveland said the outlook for the streaming device company "looks more constructive," judging by its ability to compete due to new products, new advertisers gains, lower CPMs, and better agency relationships. They expect most growth to come via DSPs. On TTD, Cleveland said partnership seems to be driving incremental revenue as programmatic access improves and volume growth exceeds CPM declines. On ACR data benefits, th

Trump Media: Brace For Lock-Up Expiration

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Update - Sept. 11, 2024 The debate was clearly rigged, not sure why Trump agreed to a debate with biased ABC media as the moderators. Again though, the stock isn't based on whether Trump becomes President or not.  -Trump Media & Technology ( NASDAQ: DJT ) shares declined by  as much as 11%  after the U.S. presidential debate between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. According to a CNN instant poll conducted by SSRS, 63% of viewers felt Harris won the debate, while 37% believed Trump was the winner. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Sept. 2 Trump Media faces significant downside risk with the upcoming lock-up expiration, particularly with Donald Trump's large share position and funding needed for the election. The company reported another weak quarter, with revenue below $1 million and rising expenses, highli

Rubrik: Lots To Love

  Rubrik has demonstrated strong growth, with subscription ARR up 40% and total revenue increasing 35% year-over-year, despite trading near IPO lows. The company benefits from heightened demand for cyber resilience, highlighted by the recent CrowdStrike outage, which underscores the need for robust data recovery systems. With a market cap of $5.6 billion and ARR forecasted to top $1 billion, Rubrik's stock is an attractive buy at 5x forward EV/S targets. Despite another strong quarter,  Rubrik  ( NYSE: RBRK ) has traded near its lows since the IPO back in April. The company secures data and quickly helps enterprise customers recover data following  cyberattacks , or even the recent IT outage. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the cybersecurity stock, with strong growth oddly ignored. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

C3.ai: Unwarranted Reaction

  C3.ai's revenue growth returned to 21%, with 71 new agreements and 51 pilot deals, indicating strong future growth despite market dissatisfaction. Despite slightly missing Wall St. estimates, C3.ai's FQ2 guidance still shows 24% YoY growth, with a strong history of beating targets. The stock now trades below the low-end price target range, offering up a Strong Buy signal. AI software companies already have wild reactions to earnings reports, and  C3.ai, Inc.  ( NYSE: AI ) didn't help their case with  guidance slightly below  targets. The AI software company is actually reporting accelerating growth and the  fastest growth rates since switching the business model to consumption-based, but the stock market isn't happy. My  investment thesis  is back to ultra-Bullish on the stock following the negative reaction to earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.