Showing posts from 2022

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Southwest Airlines: Ignored Dividend

Update - Dec. 28 Southwest has faced a brutal week over the Christmas holiday. The airline had a promising dividend return and a cheap stock heading into this disaster.  - According to FlightAware, Southwest has canceled over 2500 flights on Wednesday, adding to nearly 2700 cancellations on  Tuesday and thousands more on Monday.  The data provider has accounted for over 2300 cancellations planned for   Thursday as well. The levels of cancellations represent between 58% and 64% of scheduled flights per day in the three day span. Original article posted on Dec. 9 Southwest Airlines reinstated the dividend and the stock actually fell $2. The airline now offers a 2% dividend yield, far in excess of yields prior to COVID, despite paying the same dividend. The stock remains too cheap at 11x '23 EPS estimates that appear very conservative. The stock market is so negative on the airline sector that  Southwest Airlines  ( NYSE: LUV ) reinstating the dividend has provided no help to sector s

Baidu: Resuming Growth In 2023

Update - Dec. 27 China setting up for a big recovery in 2023 in a very bullish sign of a big rebound in the business of Baidu.  -Alibaba ( NYSE: BABA ), ( NASDAQ: JD ), Baidu ( NASDAQ: BIDU ) and several other Chinese tech stocks rose in premarket trading on Tuesday as the country eased up on restrictions for international travelers and continued to  remove the majority of its zero-COVID policies that have plagued the country's economy. -On Monday, the National Health Commission said it would no longer require inbound travelers to head into quarantine, starting January 8. Instead, travelers entering China will have to show a negative PCR test 48 hours before entering the country. -COVID-19 was also downgraded to a Category B virus, down from a Category A level, the commission added, as it has become less virulent and likely to become a common respiratory virus. Original article published on Dec. 26.  Baidu should see a rebound in the digital ad market similar to the jump in

Rumble: Wait For $5

Update - Dec. 23 Rumble closed at a new low below $7. The stock has now crashed below $6.50 and looks set to make a run down to $5. Investors need to stay on the sidelines until some clarification exists on the lows.  Update - Dec. 6 Rumble fell to a low of $7.50 yesterday before the big bounce today. The stock has possibly set up a higher low, but the view remains to not chase at these valuations.  Original article was published on Nov. 20 Rumble reported a strong revenue jump in Q3'22, but the revenue base is still only $11 million. The 'neutral' video platform has impressive plans with new monetization products to reward content creators over time. The stock valuation doesn't match the current revenue base with a market cap of $3.7 billion based on the 375 million diluted shares providing limited upside to shareholders. The $5 price target remains in place as the likely path for the stock. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing com

Google: Very Expensive Ticket

Google is the apparent winner of the NFL Sunday Ticket at a cost of $2+ billion. The financials of the NFL deal don't add up to a winning deal. The stock is cheap at ~13x EPS targets, but over paying for the Sunday Ticket is a bad move for shareholders. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   When DirecTV, still 70% owned by  AT&T  ( T ), didn't want to pay another $1.5 billion for the NFL Sunday Ticket, investors have to wonder why big tech wanted to pay even more.  Google  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ,  NASDAQ: GOOGL ) battled with  Apple  ( AAPL ) for the right to overpay for limited out-of-market NFL games. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Yelp: Unloved

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - Dec. 20 Pretty absurd downgrade of Yelp. The stock is basically being given away below $30 and JPMorgan doesn't want it. The stock has actually hit a new 52-week low on the news.  -Yelp downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan -JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter downgraded Yelp to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $23, down from $34. The insurance lead generation sector is the analyst's favorite across small and mid-cap internet stocks for 2023. He downgraded Ziff Davis to Neutral and Yelp to Underweight citing a cautious view of online advertising. Trends in online advertising are unlikely to improve at least through the first half of 2023, Carpenter tells investors in a research note. Original article published on Nov. 4 Yelp reported a strong Q3'22 with revenues growing 15% YoY. The consumer review site cut Q4 targets due

Curaleaf: Tough Quarter, But Help Is On The Way

Update - Dec. 19 The market remains absurd at the lows. $ CURLF  and other $ MSOS  weren't priced for the SAFE approval and don't even need the bill. People selling don't know what they are doing. -A long-shot attempt by lawmakers to get the SAFE Banking Act passed by including it in the omnibus spending bill has failed, Marijuana Moment reported. -Most of the major multi-state operators fell by double digits late in Monday's trading session when the news broke. -While the legislation could still pass as a stand-alone bill in the lame duck session, with only a couple of weeks until the new Congress is sworn in, that prospect is highly unlikely. -There is hope that the legislation will have legs in 2023. Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the incoming chair of the House Committee, recently told Punchbowl News that while he is opposed to the legislation, he has "pledged to have an open process" in discussing it. Update - Dec. 16 Schumer continues working on  SAFE+ a

Delta Air Lines: No Turkey Here

Update - Dec. 19  The market is so off on airline stocks that Citi increased the PT on a stock already providing 67% upside. Most of the other legacy airlines are even cheaper. The market is so focused on recession fears, investors are missing the massive opportunity.  Citi analyst Stephen Trent raised the firm's price target on Delta Air Lines to $59 from $55 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Delta's combination of international route exposure, seat mile cost dilution and relatively stable fuel prices should support the shares over the next year, Trent tells investors in a research note. The analyst continues to view Delta as his favorite U.S. carrier. As the recovery on several international corridors seems to be six- to nine months behind the U.S. domestic recovery, Delta's passenger volumes could benefit "from this momentum," writes Trent. Read more at: Update - Dec. 15 The  airline stocks remain absurdly cheap. One can

Snap: Next Move Higher

Update - Dec. 16 A defacto ban could slowly squeeze TikTok out of the US. Snap shouldn't be trading at the lows on this news.  -News is heating up on the "TikTok ban" front, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi weighing in on whether government employees should be able to use the Chinese-owned social app even as regulation of the short-video sensation ramps up in the federal and state governments. -After mulling the issue Thursday, Pelosi on Friday came out in support of including a ban of TikTok on government devices in the high-stakes government spending bill headed for a House vote, Punchbowl News reported. -It would pair with ban legislation that unanimously passed the Senate Wednesday, amid growing concerns that TikTok and parent ByteDance (BDNCE) could share data on American users with China. Original article published on Nov. 28  Snap has held $10 for months now, despite analysts turning less bullish on the stock. The social media company slashed $500 million in annual

Lyft: No Bankruptcy Risk Here

Updated - Dec. 15 Lyft continues to hold the double bottom around $10 despite the massive market sell off. The market keeps forgetting the travel sector was in a recession last couple of years. Demand shouldn't dry up in 2023.  Original article posted on Dec. 14   Lyft trades at all-time lows as investors misunderstand the financials and assign irrational bankruptcy risk to the company. The transportation network is already generating solid adjusted EBITDA profits and should generate operating cash flows soon. The stock is cheap at just 4x '23 EBITDA targets. While  Lyft  ( NASDAQ: LYFT ) has fallen to all-time lows, the company has actually started producing solid financial results. The transportation network has returned to pre-covid financial peaks, yet the company is being questioning on solvency providing a clear opportunity for  the long term. My  investment thesis  is Bullish on the strong prospects of the already highly profitable business. Read the full article on See

Warner Bros. Discovery: Iger Unlikely To Save Failed DTC Model

Update - Dec. 14 These restructurings seem to happen all the time after big mergers making the merger virtually worthless and very destructive to shareholders. Also, not exactly sure how HBO Max is more appealing with less content, but WBD will make more in licensing fees.  -Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) chief David Zaslav has spent several of the months since taking over in April by pulling back the sprawling content company's plans, including planned removals of a number of programs on HBO Max - and now we know the fates of some of those shows. -The company recently announced that it was removing HBO shows Westworld and The Nevers from the service entirely. Those programs and others will find a new home licensed to free ad-supported TV services (such as Pluto TV (PARA) (PARAA), Xumo (CMCSA), Tubi (FOX) (FOXA), Roku Channel (ROKU) and Freevee (AMZN)). Original article posted Nov. 22 Warner Bros. continues to struggle with a horrible model of consumers shifting towards video

SoFi: No Cockroaches Here

 Original article published on Nov. 28 SoFi has fallen to new lows due to irrational fears surrounding the immaterial crypto business. The Biden Admin. extending the student debt moratorium by up to 6 months isn't problematic to the long-term business prospects. The stock trades at just 2x '23 sales estimates despite strong forecasts for 34% revenue growth next year following a year with 50% growth. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Over the last few weeks,  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) has been hit with attack after attack to the stock. The fintech faces limited impacts to the long-term business from the crypto business, loan losses and student  loan moratorium, yet the stock has hit all-time lows after reporting 51% growth in the last quarter. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the business building a financial Super App while the market spreads irrational fear. Read th