Out Fox The $treet

Update - June 12, 2026 Not sure how the Roku OS works inside another media company, but a buyout could be a good opportunity to cash out on big gains. The stock wasn't overly cheap anymore.  -Roku Inc. (ROKU) soared 20% on a report that the streaming video platform is in discussions to sell itself. -Roku has been in talks with at least one US media company about a potential deal, according to a Bloomberg report on Friday, which cited people familiar with the matter. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 2 Roku, Inc. has surged to $125 as platform revenues grew at a robust 28% YoY clip in Q1'26, driving bullish sentiment. ROKU's business mix shift to high-margin platform revenue (now 90% of total) has yielded a 165% YoY jump in adjusted EBITDA. Management targets $5.5B in revenue and $675M in EBITDA in 2026, with free cash flow expected...

  Roku is positioned for strong growth, turning $100 into a solid support level after robust Q3'25 results. ROKU's platform revenues surged 17%, outpacing user engagement growth, with monetization initiatives expected to drive higher ARPU and revenue. The streaming platform is accelerating profits, with EBITDA nearly doubling by 2027 and a substantial cash hoard supporting share repurchases and future investments. Investors should view any pullback to $100 as a buying opportunity, given ROKU's multi-year growth trajectory and innovative monetization strategies. Roku, Inc.  ( ROKU ) traded at $100 heading into earnings, and the stock appeared doomed to another selloff. The market appeared disappointed with the guidance for the current quarter, but the company highlighted strong growth driver turning the  resistance at $100 into strong support going forward. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on Roku, with the streaming platform continuing to drive stron...

Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Update - Nov. 18, 2024 Baird ups Roku to a PT of $90, up from $70. . -Analysts at Baird upgraded Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) to "outperform" from "neutral," and the research firm thinks the company's shares are not reflecting the meaningful changes in the business and the attractive long-term opportunity. -Baird noted that ROKU is down 25% so far this year compared to the benchmark S&P index's 23% rally. But their optimism for the upside is pegged on increasingly favorable industry trends, positive developments in the company's strategy, and encouraging early indicators in recent results. -They expect the company to deliver sustained double-digit platform revenue growth going ahead and continued margin expansion, driving upside across estimates and valuation over time. -ROKU has a PT of $90, hiked from $70, implyi...

Update - Sept. 11, 2024 Roku looks ready to again hear at $70 after the Cleveland Research note.  Cleveland Research said on Wednesday that third quarter results for Roku ( NASDAQ: ROKU ) would likely be ahead of consensus, helped by linear gains, TTD tailwinds, CPM investments and execution. "3Q momentum sounds strong, driven by incremental linear TV gains, tailwinds from programmatic efforts, and  solid ROKU execution on new products/initiatives—ROKU leveraging supply growth to win on price," the research firm said in their September 11 commentary. Cleveland said the outlook for the streaming device company "looks more constructive," judging by its ability to compete due to new products, new advertisers gains, lower CPMs, and better agency relationships. They expect most growth to come via DSPs. On TTD, Cleveland said partnership seems to be driving incremental revenue as programmatic access improves and volume growth exceeds CPM declines. On ACR data benefits, th...

Update - Mar. 27, 2024 Rumble reported another in Q4'23. All of the new content isn't turning into usage growth. The stock likely falls back to $5. -GAAP EPS of -$0.14 beats by $0.08. - Rev. of $20.4M (+2.2% YoY) misses by $7.7M. -Avg. Minutes Watched Per Month were 10.5B, compared to 10.7B in Q3'23. Original article posted on March 13  Rumble Inc. surged after announcing a potential partnership with ByteDance for a cloud service, but the likelihood of such a partnership is low. The focus should be on Rumble's Q4 2023 results and its partnership with Barstool Sports, rather than the TikTok deal. Rumble has the potential for significant growth in 2024, especially with a focus on political content and the 2024 Presidential election. Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) has been on a tear since announcing a partnership with Barstool Sports back in January. The video platform has longed announced big content partnerships, but the company has paid aggressively to acquire talent, ...

Update - Jan. 22, 2024 The BarStool Sports deal is very promising, especially considering the push to promote Rumble. The company didn't provide any financial details on the partnership and a large guaranteed payment could actually be a negative.  The stock remains interesting below $5.  Update - Jan. 11, 2024 Rumble continues to collapse this week likely due to Twitter/X announcing new shows only on X.  The stock is down to new lows below $4.  Original article posted on Dec. 5, 2023 Rumble Inc. user metrics remain tepid, leading to new lows for the online video sharing service. The company's massive spending on content creators has not resulted in significantly higher usage or revenues. Rumble is forecasting a path to break even in 2025, but the stock remains risky due to high cash burn and the inability to monetize users effectively. After  another quarter  of tepid user metrics,  Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) has fallen ...

Update - Dec. 15, 2023 MofettNathanson has been wrong about Roku all year with the $64 price target heading into this downgrade. The market actually following this call by selling off the stock is mind numbing.  -Roku's (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock fell about 2% premarket on Friday after MoffettNathanson downgraded the shares to Sell from Neutral. -The firm cut the rating but raised its price target to $66 from $64 using its imputed EBITDA valuation approach with an 18% theoretical EBITDA margin on its 2025E revenues and a 10.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, as per the analysts. Update - Nov. 3, 2023  Roku reported an impressive quarter, but the most important aspect was guidance for Q4.  Forecast $955 million in Q4 net revenue, better than the consensus $951.3 million Adj. EBITDA $10 million The stock has surged due to the drop from nearly being related to fears Roku would cut guidance due to the Hollywood strikes pressure on ad revenues.  Original article posted on Oct. 24  Roku...

  Update - Mar. 10 Roku  Should get most of the cash back, but definitely an interesting development to have nearly $500M of cash at  Silicon Valley Bank.  Roku stock ( NASDAQ: ROKU ) turned  3.5% lower  after hours after the company stated that it held  about 26% of its cash and equivalents  at Silicon Valley Bank, which  failed Friday  and was closed down by California . Roku has total cash and equivalents of $1.9B, of which $487M was held at SVB - deposits that are "largely uninsured." "At this time, the Company does not know to what extent the Company will be able to recover its cash on deposit at SVB," Roku said. Original article posted on Feb. 17 Roku, Inc. reported Q4 2022 numbers that beat analyst estimates while guiding better than expected for Q1'23. The video streaming platform reported solid active accounts and streaming hours growth, supporting the ARK Invest base case. Roku stock is cheap at $70 at 2x forward sales, but Rok...

Update - Dec. 14 These restructurings seem to happen all the time after big mergers making the merger virtually worthless and very destructive to shareholders. Also, not exactly sure how HBO Max is more appealing with less content, but WBD will make more in licensing fees.  -Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) chief David Zaslav has spent several of the months since taking over in April by pulling back the sprawling content company's plans, including planned removals of a number of programs on HBO Max - and now we know the fates of some of those shows. -The company recently announced that it was removing HBO shows Westworld and The Nevers from the service entirely. Those programs and others will find a new home licensed to free ad-supported TV services (such as Pluto TV (PARA) (PARAA), Xumo (CMCSA), Tubi (FOX) (FOXA), Roku Channel (ROKU) and Freevee (AMZN)). Original article posted Nov. 22 Warner Bros. continues to struggle with a horrible model of consumers shifting towards video ...

  Roku continues to slump following a string of disappointing earnings. The video streaming service already has a large customer base limiting future account additions. The stock isn't appealing with struggling growth and profits ahead. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » While the streaming video sector reports solid growth rates, the business models of the companies involved haven't exactly lived up to grand expectations.  Roku  ( NASDAQ: ROKU ) is a primary example of where limited profits are  paired with strong revenue growth due to the costs to operate in the industry while streaming revenues are cut from the legacy video funnel. My investment thesis is Bearish on the stock despite the potential tradable setup of a double bottom around $100. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page fo...

Netflix (NFLX) remains on a path to generate record subscriber additions for the year which should send the stock back to previous highs. As the year progresses, the free cash flow burn will become a huge problem as new streaming competition from Disney (DIS) and WarnerMedia (T) comes online.

The streaming video wars should reach peak competitive levels in 2019. Netflix enters the competition while burning cash at a $3 billion annual rate. The entry of the tech giants leaves Netflix at a balance sheet disadvantage with net debt approaching $10 billion in 2019. The stock is due for another rally in early 2019 for investors to fade. The planed addition of several tech giants along with traditional media players into the direct-to-consumer streaming video segment should expose the biggest weakness of leader  Netflix  ( NFLX ). The problems with developing a leading market position without building up a pristine balance sheet is that competitors can easily attack the company's weakness and ultimately prevent a player like Netflix from achieving the massive cash flows and profits warranting a market valuation of $132 billion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.

iQIYI expects to go public next week. The Chinese online video leader seems overlooked by the market in comparison to other high-profile IPOs. The proposed offering price is attractive and the focus on Chinese tariffs could hold back the IPO excitement. As the market focuses on streaming video and music services in the U.S., a fast-growing opportunity is opening up in China. The potentially under the radar IPO of  iQIYI  ( IQ ), majority-owned by Chinese search giant  Baidu  ( BIDU ), provides an opportunity as the market focuses on more high profile public offerings and Chinese stocks face tariff related weaknesses. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long BIDU. Please review this disclaimer page for more details.