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Showing posts from November, 2022

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Delta Air Lines: No Turkey Here

  After solid traffic demand during the Thanksgiving holiday, Delta Air Lines appears on pace to generate strong profits in Q4'22. The airline continues to trade like the future is cloudy and not represented by ~$4.50 in per share profits over the last 3 quarters. The stock is a gift here trading below 5x 2024 EPS targets. After a strong Thanksgiving holiday, investors should have no doubt about the rebound in airlines and specifically  Delta Air Lines  ( NYSE: DAL ). The company has produced a remarkable rebound in profits, yet the stock is still valued  as if a profitable rebound remains in doubt. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the airline stock with an expectation for a full profit rebound for a stock that was once considered cheap at $60 and now trades below $35. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

DocuSign: Looking For Unloved Stocks

  DocuSign is very unloved by Wall St. analysts with only 5 of 21 analysts having a Buy rating. The digital signature company continues to produce strong growth, though billings guidance continues to weaken. The stock trades below pre-covid levels despite a substantially larger revenue base providing an appealing entry point for a digital contract future. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   DocuSign  ( NASDAQ: DOCU ) was a poster child for the covid excesses where business lockdowns necessitated a shift into their digital signature product offerings. The stock has fallen from a high over $300 to a low  below $50 making DocuSign a very hated stock here. My  investment thesis  is Bullish on the stock following the collapse and the lack of market interest in a technology industry leader. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. P...

SoFi Technologies: Irrational Hit

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  SoFi Technologies oddly fell hard following an initial big rally on the strong Q3'22 earnings report. The fintech expects to benefit from the student loan moratorium ending January 1, along with a potential blocking of the loan forgiveness plan. Investors appear irrationally fearful the digital bank isn't taking enough loan provisions due to loans being held longer before being sold. The stock is cheap at 15x conservative 2023 adjusted EBITDA targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   After an odd selloff following strong Q3'22 earnings,  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) is poised to finish the rally the stock started. The fintech has been maligned for not taking charges on loans held on the balance sheet, but the  company is poised to benefit whether holding or ultimately selling the personal loans. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bullish on the grow...

Celsius: Look For Dips

  Celsius reported another blowout quarter for Q3'22 with revenues of $188 million smashing estimates. The energy drink company is seeing initial strong results from the PepsiCo distribution deal. The stock appears expensive on most financial metrics, but Celsius trades at a similar forward P/S multiple of industry leader Monster. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   On most metrics,  Celsius Holdings  ( NASDAQ: CELH ) appears an expensive beverage stock to avoid in this market environment. The healthy energy drink company continues to report explosive growth and a new distribution partnership with  PepsiCo  ( PEP ), possibly warrants a higher valuation regardless of normal valuation metrics. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, though one should look at buying the hot stock on dips. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha  Disclosure: No position mention...

AMD Remains In The Driver's Seat Following Intel's Q3 Earnings

  AMD reports Q3 earnings after the close on November 1. Intel provided every indication the chip giant has to boost margins and cut costs reducing any fears of the company dumping chips on the market. AMD remains cheap for the long-term opportunity in Datacenter, but the stock will trade volatile in the short term. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Advanced Micro Devices  ( NASDAQ: AMD ) rallied to end last week after  Intel  ( INTC ) reported better than feared results. The chip giant was feared to have caused the inventory problem leading to the  big preliminary cut  to Q3'22 estimates for AMD. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the company ultimately taking market share from Intel as the inventory correction in the PC market is resolved by next year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please re...