IB Net Payout Yields Model

Poll of the Day: Bespoke Investor Sentiment

It's always interesting to see what the sentiment of the active retail investors/bloggers is now that the market has had a 5% pullback. The market is just 1-2% above major resistance in the 870-875 level. Its unlikely a normal market would see a break of those levels after having such a hard time breaking above that level going back to October. Based on that I'd think at least 60-70% would expect the market to hold. After all, it was the inability to hold 870 that sent the market off the cliff all the way to 666. So what are the results?

According the poll as of making this post, only 12% expect the market to bounce from here. So 87% expect the market to go lower. Now nearly half or 43% expect only a 10% correction which would be around 840 Thats pretty reasonable, but a full 45% expect a least a 20% correction which equals a new bull market and even worse 27% expect a return to the lows at 666. Extrapolating the results I'd likely guess that the 43% only expecting a 10% drop would likely have selected 15% if it was an option. I'd guess that at least 60% of the people expect a 15%+ correction.

Now thats just down right bearish. Oh wait, thats actually very bullish. So many people negative just proves that very few people are left to sell this market It confirms the view I got from watching the Fast Money show on CNBC. Volumes on a lot of stocks were very low today. People expecting a downside move are already short or out of the market. The pullback is healthy, but don't expect the majority to be accurate. Doesn't appear to be many bulls left these days. Its been easy to be a short that people have forgotten this historical market moves.

I'm expecting a slight pullback, but this seems to easy and expected. Not sure it'll happen as all the experts expect.


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