Posts

Showing posts with the label Empire State index

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Empire Manufacturing Jumps

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions improved in October for New York State manufacturers. The general business conditions index rose 12 points, to 15.7. New orders jumped to 13 suggesting the index will remain strong the rest of the year. Especially considering that inventories plunged to -11.7 suggesting that corporations were caught off guard with a rebound in the economy during September. The increase in employment coincides with the better employment numbers seen since the beginning of September as well.  All in all a very solid report that suggests the economy is pulling out of the fog from the summer. The index is now signaling strong growth in manufacturing has returned. The only question is whether profit margins are beginning to be squeezed with employment hitting 21 and now above the general conditions. If employment continues hotter then general business conditions, corporations might face costs growing faster then revenue. Something to w...

Stat of the Day: Empire Manufacturing Orders Grow

Empire State Manufacturing Index (New York) came in nearly even today suggesting that the manufacturing sector is about to turn positive. The numbers were sharply higher then expectations and new orders were positive. The big downside was a huge continuation of the inventory reduction. This reduction only makes the recovery much more likely as firms will be required to start increasing inventories to keep up with increasing orders. The Philly Fed Index will be interesting tomorrow. This index was stronger then the Empire one in June and analysts have the same expectations of -5.0. Another strong area would all but put a nail in this recession. New York Federal Reserve's Empire State general business conditions index rose to minus 0.55 in July from minus 9.41 in June July's report on factory activity in New York state was the strongest since April 2008, the last time it was in positive territory. exceeded economists' expectations of minus 5.0, based on the median of forecast...

Stat of the Day 2: Empire Strikes Back

More good news on the economic front overlooked today from the Empire Fed Manufacturing report . Another 'best since Oct 2007' reading for future expectations. The number was a remarkable 44 which is way above zero and considerably more bullish then any other reading in the index. Shipments were positive for the first time in months. Inventories remained considerably negative which is actually bullish because they'll need to restock in the near future. The only major negative was a decline in orders. Though the number was still better then the March lows. The huge bounce in April probably contributed to the slack in May. The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index climbed to minus 4.55 in May--its highest since August 2008--from minus 14.65 in April. In March, the index sagged to minus 38.23, its weakest since its launch in July 2001. the regional Fed's index on future business conditions rose to 43.8, its highest since October 200...