Out Fox The $treet

  Plug Power started 2023 by again cutting revenue targets for 2022. The green hydrogen company has elevated costs and future revenue backlog far below the 2023 guidance level. The stock remains a Sell, even with the dip below $15. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Plug Power  ( NASDAQ: PLUG ) has started 2023 off the same way the company ended prior years. The green hydrogen company spent January busily cutting revenue guidance, cancelling a big deal with a partner and announcing another deal. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock due to a constant overpromising and underdelivering record while burning tons of cash on excessive spending. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  The Chinese economy still hasn't fully recovered providing a tailwind for the EV companies. NIO started the year off with weak deliveries in January, but the company should guide to improving numbers by Q2'23. The stock is cheap at 1x sales, especially if the cash burn is quickly reduced or eliminated. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Despite an initial rally in January, Chinese stocks haven't rallied for the year due to a disappointing reopen from strict covid lockdowns. The EV sector has been doubly impacted with the end of subsidies slowing deliveries to start 2023 for  NIO  ( NYSE: NIO ). My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the Chinese EV manufacturer set to ultimately benefit from the ongoing full reopen of the Chinese economy setting up a rally in most Chinese stocks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mention...

Freeport-McMoRan stock has dipped back to $40 with copper prices slipping back to $4/lb. Copper prices are set to rebound on a full China reopening and higher EV production levels. The stock will rally on higher copper prices while Freeport-McMoRan only trades at ~5x adjusted EBITDA targets. The China reopening has struggled to gain the expected steam due to an initial bout of high covid cases followed by the Chinese New Year.  Freeport-McMoRan  ( NYSE: FCX ) will ultimately benefit from the  surge in demand as the whole world throws resources into building EVs with high copper requirements. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the copper miner, as lower copper prices have weakened the stock price since the start of 2023. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long FCX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  NVIDIA ushered in an AI chip boom with an inflection point in the current quarter. AMD announced several new AI chips in the last few months with plans to accelerate development and new product releases during 2023. The stock only trades at ~13x normalized EPS targets despite the long-term growth potential accelerated by AI chip demand. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   NVIDIA  ( NVDA ) soared this last week as the CEO told a bullish story on AI chip demand altering the narrative of a weak chip business due to slumping demand.  Advanced Micro Devices  ( NASDAQ: AMD ) recently told  a bullish AI story, but the stock didn't see the same bullish outcome. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on the chip stock solidly below $80 despite the bullish sector commentary. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Pleas...

  Apple continues working on turning the Apple Watch into a medical device. The tech giant has made progress on a glucose monitoring system with the signs the concept works, but the company needs to scale the product into a wearable form factor. The stock is already priced for a Holy Grail new product, while investors should buy the stock when a new medical device is a bonus for a cheap stock. Apple shouldn't already trade at 25x FY23 EPS targets. The holy grail of the  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) Watch is turning the product into a medical device. The tech company has a promising new use for the watch, but the market has already hyped the entry  of the company into the blood glucose monitoring market. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bearish on the stock until investors can purchase the stock with upside potential from such new products, instead of the current scenario where Apples falls unless the company releases new hit products. Read the full article ...

  TSMC dipped on news Berkshire Hathaway dumped shares of the chip company. The investment firm run by Warren Buffett has a recent history of selling at the lows prior to large rallies. The stock is a buy based on a cheap valuation at 12x '24 EPS targets, especially after the Buffett-induced dip. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   In a strange move,  Berkshire Hathaway  ( BRK.A ,  BRK.B )  slashed shares  of  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company  ( NYSE: TSM ) months after initiating a new position. The massive insurance and investment firm ran by Warren Buffett  has made several odd sells in the last few years by unloading stocks closer to the lows. My investment thesis is Bullish on the advanced chip manufacturing company trading at a cheap valuation due to irrational fears. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No pos...

  indie Semiconductor reported another strong quarter with revenues surging 74% YoY. The GEO acquisition adds a strong automotive camera business for an initial payment of only $180 million. The stock is cheap at 3x forward sales. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   indie Semiconductor  ( NASDAQ: INDI ) continues to prove that not all SPACs were bad. The Autotech company reported another solid quarter to end 2022, as the company rides the auto megatrends. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish  on the stock, even after the rally back to the $10 SPAC price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Twilio reported a surprise profit when reporting Q4'22 earnings last week, but the stock has sold off the last couple of trading days. The customer engagement platform has now reduced 26% of the workforce and is focusing on profitable growth and self-serve communications sales. The stock is cheap at 2x EV/2023 sales while the company is busy repurchasing $1 billion worth of shares. Twilio  ( NYSE: TWLO ) initially soared following  mixed Q4'22 results . Cleary, the market appeared to prefer the shift in the business to a profitable future after a large amount of investors questioned whether the customer engagement company  could ever be profitable. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock, though the company has clearly reigned in growth opportunities going forward possibly leading to the delayed sell off. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

Upwork reported a solid quarter with revenues beating analyst estimates and growing at an impressive 18% clip. The freelance platform didn't guide to the most impressive 2023 growth rate, but Upwork growing sales at 13% is solid for the macro weakness. The stock is cheap at only 2x forward sales while the company forecasts being profitable in '23. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As with most tech related businesses, Upwork ( NASDAQ: UPWK ) trades at the lows of the last few years. The company saw an initial work from home boost in demand for freelance work, but Upwork has now been hit by budget  cuts reducing demand for part-time work following impacts from the war in Ukraine. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock trading at a depressed valuation multiple. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disc...

Update - Feb. 15 More good bookings numbers from $ RBLX . -Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares rocketed up by almost 16% in pre-market trading Wednesday as investors reacted positively to the online gaming platform company's better-than-expected fourth-quarter bookings. -Prior to the start of trading, Roblox (RBLX) said that bookings for the quarter that ended December 31 totaled $899.4M, an increase of 17% from the year-ago quarter. The company's bookings also surpassed analysts' consensus forecasts of $881.4M. -Along with its fourth-quarter results, Roblox (RBLX) said the for January, it estimates bookings will end up between $267M and $271M, which would be an increase of 19% to 21% from a year ago, and revenue will be in a range of $213M to $216M. The company added that it had 65M DAUs in January, a 19% increase from January 2022. Original  article posted on Jan. 18 Roblox Corporation reported strong December monthly metrics, with bookings growing at up to 20% in the strong holida...

  Upstart reported another weak quarter in Q4 2022, and in particular guided to collapsing loan origination demand in Q1 2023. The fintech doesn't appear any closer to solving the committed capital issues, though this could provide a stock boost on the next up cycle. Upstart Holdings stock is expensive compared to fintech lending peers despite reporting large losses. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Just a couple of weeks back,  Upstart Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) announced plans to  lay off ~20% of their workforce  in a sign of how weak 2023 had started off. The fintech continues to  operate a flawed AI-driven lending platform very susceptible to cyclical lending practices. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on UPST stock despite Upstart trading near the lows, though the stock could become a good trading vehicle as the Fed moves to pause ra...

Google slumped last week following an underwhelming AI chat launch. The company obtains all of their profits from the Google Services business focused on Google search causing the market to excessively worry about competitive threats. The stock trades with an EV of 10x '25 non-GAAP EPS targets even before expected efficiency gains. Alphabet  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ,  NASDAQ: GOOGL ) collapsed this week following a failed answer in a tweet launching a new conversational AI service. The market was overly dramatic on the outcome of the AI event hosted by Google, especially considering ChatGPT  has several high profile failures. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock following the major dip back below $95. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Canopy Growth Corporation remains in a downward spiral as revenues plunge causing the Canadian cannabis company to start another restructuring. The company reported another horrible adjusted EBITDA loss. The stock is expensive compared to the cannabis space and should be sold at all price levels. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The Canadian cannabis space continues to destroy shareholder wealth with the horrible results from industry leader  Canopy Growth Corporation  ( NASDAQ: CGC ). The company appears to have completely abandoned past plans and embarked on a  full restructuring with the Canadian business after years of destroying shareholder wealth. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bearish on CGC stock until all restructurings end and the business returns to growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Plea...

XPeng Inc. got 2023 off to a slow start with weak January deliveries. With the Tesla, Inc. price cut, covid and the Chinese New Year, most Chinese consumers stayed on the sidelines looking for price cuts. The Chinese EV manufacturer predicts a big year ahead due to the new G9 SUV. XPeng stock is cheap, trading at only 1x '23 sales targets. The Chinese electric vehicle ("EV") market got off to a slow start in January, with  XPeng Inc.  ( NYSE: XPEV ) reporting a major sequential decline in monthly deliveries. The Chinese New Year and  Tesla, Inc.  ( TSLA ) price cuts impacted customer demand in the quarter. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on a rebound in the Chinese EV sector, as much as on an XPeng gain with the stock still trading close to the lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Lumen Technologies, Inc. slashed 2023 guidance with adjusted EBITDA targets far below analyst estimates. The telecom barely forecasts generating positive free cash flow after repaying a ton of debt from selling a couple of non-core units. Lumen Technologies, Inc. stock is a Sell with limited free cash flow eliminating the whole upside potential from repurchasing what appeared to be cheap shares. Lumen Technologies, Inc.  ( NYSE: LUMN ) plunged 20% following their highly disappointing  Q4 2022 earnings report . The telecommunications company got a new CEO and kitchen-sinked the 2023 guidance, while continuing the disastrous process of constantly cutting business versus  building on the current profit base. My  investment thesis  is now Bearish on Lumen stock in a rare scenario where a beaten-down stock isn't one to buy on dips. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more ...

  Royal Caribbean reported a solid Q4'22 earnings report, but most importantly guided to a big 2023 EPS of over $3. Carnival already forecast a solid adjusted EBITDA boost in the weak FQ1'23 in a sign this year was going to be vastly improved. The stock is cheap at $12 with peers already guiding to 2025 EPS targets topping 2019 peak levels amounting to a $4+ EPS target for Carnival. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The cruise line stocks have seen a strong rally in early 2023 due in part to the likely end of tax-loss selling as the calendar turned to the new year.  Carnival Corp.  ( NYSE: CCL ) is now primed for a strong WAVE season following the earnings report of a cruise line peer. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock trading far below prior peak levels with clear signs business is about to boom this year. Read the full article on Seeking...

Update - Feb. 8 Shorts are going to hate not listening and buying the dip on Under Armour. The stock should quickly close the gap to $13 on $UA.  -Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.07. -Revenue of $1.58B (+3.3% Y/Y) beats by $30M. -Adjusted diluted earnings per share is now expected to be $0.52 to $0.56 versus the previously expected range of $0.44 to $0.48 vs. $0.46 consensus Update - Dec. 21 Under Armour up 4% on the better than expected report from Nike . Also, Nike has improved the inventory position since 90 days ago which should reduce the promotional environment hitting UA this year. -Nike press release (NYSE:NKE): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.21. Revenue of $13.32B (+17.3% Y/Y) beats by $740M. -Gross margin decreased 300 basis points to 42.9 percent. -Inventories for NIKE, Inc. were $9.3 billion, up 43 percent compared to the prior year period, driven by an increase in units from lapping prior year supply chain disruption, as well as higher input costs. -We bel...