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Showing posts from April, 2026

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Bloom Energy: Oracle Reinforces AI Power Surge

Update - Apr. 29, 2026 As expected, Bloom Energy guided up 2026 numbers big time hiking to $3.6B at the midpoint after repairing a big Q1'26 beat as follows: -Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.31. -Revenue of $751.1M (+130.4% Y/Y) beats by $211.08M. Evercore ISI raised PT to $295 from $179 with an Outperform rating. The analyst has an interesting view on the goal for 5GW of capacity. - Taken with what we believe is a relatively conservative approximately 25% adjusted EBITDA margin profile, this would imply approximately $5B annually if the company were to remain at 5GW, which based on the current and future projected demand seems unlikely in our view. The assumptions outlined above would imply an approximately 13x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is roughly in line with premium IPP peers. Given our belief that demand for Bloom fuel cells is likely to increase as the AI power thematic matures, we are increasing our price target to $295, which ascribes a 27.5x multiple to our 2028 adjus...

Joby Aviation: Full-Speed Ahead

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Joby Aviation accelerates progress with the U.S. eIPP program, de-risking FAA certification delays. The company was approved for 5 programs covering operations in 10 different states, setting up Joby for rapid expansion on FAA certification. Joby Aviation has manufacturing plans for nearly 50 aircraft in 2027 with a production value of $250 million, depending on how the company utilizes the aircraft. The stock is far more appealing after the 50% dip since the 2025 highs and another capital raise for a pro forma cash balance of $250 million. Joby Aviation, Inc.  ( JOBY ), is now full-speed ahead with the eIPP (eVTOL Integration Pilot Program) in the U.S. The eVTOL manufacturer now has the opportunity to prove out the air taxi thesis without waiting on  the FAA certification to ramp up operations and plans for 2027. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock after this dip back to only $9. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position...

Palantir: AI Is The Risk

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Update - Apr. 9, 2026 Palantir investors that didn't sell the stock at $200 face a precarious cliff at $130 here. The stock still trades at 40x forward sales and not much support down until $50.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Feb. 16 Palantir Technologies has already fallen substantially due to enterprise AI software stocks factoring in AI risk. PLTR reported impressive 70% growth in Q4, but the stock traded at over 100x sales at the peak. Claude Code from Anthropic is suddenly an AI threat due to coding skills, while the company is now bigger than Palantir. The stock still trades at 43x forward sales, while premium software stocks in IGV trade at less than 10x forward sales. Not long ago,  Palantir Technologies, Inc.  ( PLTR ) appeared invincible. The stock soared to nearly $210, and investors appeared unconcerned about val...

Snap: Hidden Subscriber Boom

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Updated - April 1, 2026 Snap was insanely cheap at $4. Not sold on selling off the Specs biz, but think an activist can push management to do more, such as hike subscription prices. Irenic appears more focused on taking $500M in savings from Specs and repurchasing cheap shares.  -Irenic, which has an economic interest of ~2.5% in Snap's Class A shares, wants the company to spin off or shutter its smart glasses business, Specs, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, which cited a letter Irenic sent to Snap Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Evan Spiegel. The activist believes that moves Snap could make could boost its shares to more than $26 each. -The activist fund also wants Snap (SNAP) to rationalize its cost structure by cutting jobs and changing its compensation structure for employees, according to the report. Irenic also is pushing Snap to concentrate on adopting artificial intelligence to improve ad monetization. Irenic also recommends a stock buyback with the share...

USA Rare Earth: Take Advantage Of Momentum Swings

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  USA Rare Earth is aggressively ramping up production with government funding, targeting a vertically integrated rare earth supply chain. USAR's magnet and metal businesses are scaling rapidly, with sales forecast to reach $2.6 billion by 2030 and significant milestones in 2027–2029. The stock trades at less than 3x 2030 EBITDA targets, presenting a compelling long-term buy opportunity near yearly lows. The company faces execution and pricing risks, but current weakness offers attractive entry for investors willing to buy dips and sell sector-driven spikes. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » USA Rare Earth, Inc.  ( USAR ) is full-speed ahead now with government funding and plans to ramp up towards production in multiple areas. The rare earths miner and metal maker has been a solid buy  at the lows of the last year below $15. My  investment thesis ...