What Was Applied Materials Thinking?
Applied Materials (AMAT) spent the last year convincing people of a new normal in the semiconductor space, but the December guidance suggests the cyclical sector hasn't changed at all. - Downside Q1 guidance has revenue of $3.56B to $3.66B (consensus: $3.98B) and EPS of $0.75 to $0.83 (consensus: $0.93; -25% Y/Y at midpoint). Consensus was for a revenue decline so it wasn't like the market expected great quarterly numbers from AMAT. The odd part was the decision of the BOD to spend $751 million during the quarter on share repurchases. Any company expecting to miss estimates by such a wide margin should not be loading up on stock buybacks. The question here is whether the cycle has further downside. AMAT still expects solid profits so now isn't the time to runaway, but its too early until after Thanksgiving to even think about chasing the after-hours dip to $32. Lets see where AMAT trades on Friday.