Out Fox The $treet

According to Intrade.com  the odds of Barack Obama being re-elected President in 2012 has dropped below 50% now. Considering he spent most of the year at or above 60%, it shows the significant weakness he has faced as the economy falters. Intrade is the world's leading prediction market though I haven't seen any details on the accuracy of the predictions. They are based on actual money invested so its people putting hard earned money at risk. Probably much better than a random poll of 1,000 people that would rather not have answered the phone. The reduction in the chances of Obama being elected in 2012 could help push the markets up. Otherwise, summer 2012 could be another rough year if the markets have to come to grips with Obama for another four years. Anybody recall the end of 2008 through March 2009?

While the Sept/Oct period tends to be weak, the mid term election cycle for the President tends to be very bullish. Historically the stock market does really well during the Presidential cycle and according to Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial, on CNBC its usually a 50% run. That 50% would be all the way up 1,500. Much more then I'd expect, but if Obama tames his liberal agenda and becomes much more pro business I guess anything is possible.