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Showing posts from October, 2012

IB Net Payout Yields Model

What The Heckmann Is Going On?

Just about 50 days ago, Heckmann (HEK) announced the deal to purchase Power Fuels. The deal turns Heckmann into a domestic leader in the wastewater removal industry supporting the shale oil and gas boom. See our article "Heckmann Makes Game-Changing Merger" for more details on the deal. While the stock initially popped from just above $2.50 all the way to $5, it has now slumped all the way to the $3.60s. Lower drilling in the domestic U.S. where both Heckmann and Power Fuels operate has impacted the excitement over the deal. Have the economics really changed that much to warrant a 30% drop? Makes us wonder what is going on. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long HECK. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The Yields Remain Strong At Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) continues to report earnings that prove revenue growth can be over rated. The defense contractor reported Q3 2012 revenue that slightly dropped from the $12.1B in 2011, yet the company managed to beat earnings estimate and hike the dividend yield by 15%. The amazing story about this stock is that even with the stock hitting multi-year highs, the stock will now yield 5% after this hike to a $1.15 dividend per quarter. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclsoure: Long LMT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Sensing The Valuation Potential Of InvenSense

After the close on Tuesday, InvenSense, Inc. (INVN) reported earnings that, combined with the replacement of the CEO, sent the stock down as much as 20% at one point. This once high flying maker of motion sensing technology continues to struggle with forecasting the actual market growth of its products. In previous quarters, the company spoke of a bright future interrupted by a chip shortage from Qualcomm (QCOM) limiting the ability of handset makers to utilize the motion sensing technology for 4G LTE phones. Now the Q2 2013 earnings ending in September slightly beat estimates, but the company guided towards a weak December quarter. While still guiding strong yearly growth of 35%, the market is clearly disappointed that the higher end 40% growth rate wasn't reached. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long INVN. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Net Payout Yields Model Holding Up Strong

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The market has become very rocky at the end of October, but the Net Payout Yields model continues to hold strong. Over the past 30 days, the model sits virtually breakeven while the S&P 500 is down 3.3%. See below charts from Covestor. Even more importantly, these results place the YTD totals at a 19% gain for the model versus only 12% for the S&P 500. As the model approaches the 2nd year of being tracked and offered on Covestor, it again looks to outpace the market by over 5%. See below stats for the performance since 11/2/12. For any investors looking for a conservative, non-emotional method for outperforming the S&P 500, the Net Payout Yields model continues to offer that solution. The model rountinely sells high and buy lows which very few models can actually achieve. Please contact us directly at info@stonefoxcapital.com . Disclosure: Future results can not be guaranteed. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

Two Harbors Investment - Investor Day Highlights

As the market for mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) has lost some steam over the last couple of weeks, the investor day for Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO) provided an ideal time to review the prospects for this company. The company acquires, owns and manages a portfolio of Agency and non-Agency residential mortgage-backed securities and related investments. The investment approach focuses on security selection and the relative value of various sectors within the mortgage market. Two Harbors currently has a total residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) portfolio of over $15B, providing for a significant hybrid mREIT that now has substantially reduced the expense ratio to 0.8%. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long NLY. Please review the disclaimer for more details. 

Sensing The Valuation Potential Of InvenSense

After the close on Tuesday, InvenSense, Inc. (INVN) reported earnings that, combined with the replacement of the CEO, sent the stock down as much as 20% at one point. This once high flying maker of motion sensing technology continues to struggle with forecasting the actual market growth of its products. In previous quarters, the company spoke of a bright future interrupted by a chip shortage from Qualcomm (QCOM) limiting the ability of handset makers to utilize the motion sensing technology for 4G LTE phones. Now the Q2 2013 earnings ending in September slightly beat estimates, but the company guided towards a weak December quarter. While still guiding strong yearly growth of 35%, the market is clearly disappointed that the higher end 40% growth rate wasn't reached. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long INVN and AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The Bull Market Has Been Shot!

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Great pic from Yahoo! Finance on the market action the last few days. The bull market has definitely been knocked down.

Natural Gas Rigs: Headed Towards A Shortage - Part III

Part I of this series focused on the continual reduction of rigs exploring for natural gas in the domestic U.S. lower 48. All the while, commodity prices continue to surge upward with futures prices even higher. This third part will focus on the oil service providers that will benefit from what could become surging demand for services work as both oil and natural gas producers scramble for available crews. As mentioned in Part I, the Baker Hughes (BHI) rig report on October 12th showed an interesting divergence with the commodity markets. While natural gas has jumped some 60% in the past few months, the amount of rigs drilling for natural gas plunged to lows not seen since 1999. On the October 19th report, the natural gas rig count increased 5 up to 427. A year ago, the count was 927. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long CJES, HEK, WFT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Natural Gas Rigs: Headed Towards A Shortage - Part II

Part I of this series focused on the continual reduction of rigs exploring for natural gas in the domestic U.S. lower 48. All the while, commodity prices continue to surge upward with futures prices even higher. This second part will focus on the natural gas producers that will benefit from the surging prices and the potential that a great majority of the rigs needed to increase production are tied up with oil drilling. As mentioned in Part I, the Baker Hughes (BHI) rig report on Friday showed an interesting divergence with the commodity markets. While natural gas has jumped some 60% in the past few months, the amount of rigs drilling for natural gas has plunged to lows not seen since 1999. In the last week, the natural gas rig count dropped another 15 to only 422. Last year, the count was 936. Recently Forbes released an article describing the depletion curve in the Eagle Ford as higher than expected. Not only does this change the investment thesis on some of the shale plays, but it

eBay Reports Solid Earnings Benefiting From Mobile

After reporting earnings on Wednesday night, eBay Inc. (EBAY) initially jumped nearly 5%, as investors were impressed with mobile growth and international expansion opportunities. The company is a global commerce platform and payments leader. Unlike Facebook (FB) or Google (GOOG) , eBay sees mobile as a game changer. The shift towards smartphones and tablet usage provides consumers with more access to utilize the services of eBay. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.

Natural Gas Rigs: Headed Towards A Shortage - Part I

The Baker Hughes (BHI) rig report on Friday showed an interesting divergence with the commodity markets. While natural gas has jumped some 60% in the past few months, the amount of rigs drilling for natural gas has plunged to lows not seen since 1999. In the last week, the natural gas rig count dropped another 15 to only 422. Last year, the count was 936. For investors expecting that exploration companies can quickly turn on the drilling spigot, one needs to note the most concerning part of the report is that the percentage of rigs drilling for natural gas is the lowest ever at 23%. The concern is that limited rigs and service personnel might exist for a rebound in demand. This is the first part of a series focusing on the potential beneficiaries and losers of a pending spike in natural gas prices while most of the available drilling rigs are focused on oil. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long CJES, HEK, WFT. Please review the disclaimer page for more d

Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T

After a strong rally this year, AT&T (T) , along with wireless duopoly cohort Verizon (VZ) , suddenly faces some serious threats to its competitive advantage. In a low interest rate environment, investors have continued to chase the yield on AT&T, pushing the dividend down to 4.7% while competitors are in the process of launching an attack. As highlighted in this article last week, the huge gains in the domestic cable and wireless stocks have gotten ahead of reality. Those gains were partially based on an environment of limited competition. This could dramatically shift with the rumors of a Sprint (S) investment by SoftBank and the pending merger of T-Mobile (DTEGY.PK) and MetroPCS (PCS) . Suddenly, the weak domestic wireless providers have become a threat to the cushy life of the duopoly. Not to mention, the news gets even worse for AT&T, as Verizon continues to capture market share with a more advanced 4G network. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclo

OCZ Tech: Untouchable For Now

The drama for OCZ Technology Group Inc (OCZ) just won't end. The manufacturer of solid state drives has gone through a series of dramatic announcements in recent months from missing earnings due to a NAND shortfall, the retirement of the CFO, the resignation of the CEO, and now an earnings warning and reporting delay. Not to forget that the company hired a new CEO, existing board member Ralph Schmitt. After announcing materially lower revenue expectations, Ralph hosted a conference call that was short on details and long on questions. Due to the lack of firm details, the stock is currently untouchable by investors. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long SVNT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.

Natural Gas Inventories Falling Back Into Normal 5 Year Range

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After a very warm winter in 2011, natural gas inventories accumulated to levels much higher than the 5 year average norms. The resulting impact was a desire to move drilling rigs away from natural gas producing regions such as the Haynesville into oil producing regions such as the Eagle Ford. Combine the rapid reduction in drilling rigs with the extremely hot summer and natural gas inventories are now approaching normal levels. In fact the, EIA reported only a 72bcf increase to the inventories for the last week. Typically the number for the first week of October tops 100bcf.  See chart below: While the above chart from the EIA doesn't show the daily production and useage totals, it does clearly highlight how the excesses from last winter have been worked off. On top of that, a vast majority of rigs have been moved out of the gas regions suggesting production declines could start hitting the market. These rigs are now being used in the oil producing regions where $90+ oil

Is It Too Late To Invest In Ares Capital?

With high yield in vogue these days, Ares Capital (ARCC) is worth a look even after a big gain this year. Back in August at the time of the Q2 earnings release, the company announced an increased dividend to $0.38 plus a bonus dividend of $0.05. Counting only the normal dividend, the stock currently yields 8.7%. The company is a business development company (BDC) that operates as a leading specialty finance company that provides one-stop financing solutions to U.S. middle market companies and private equity sponsors. The company originates and invests in senior secured loans, mezzanine debt and, to a lesser extent, equity investments through its national direct origination platform. Ares Capital competes against companies like American Capital, Ltd (ACAS) , KKR Financial Holdings LLC (KFN) , and Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) . All of these stocks have had huge gains in the last year, yet all but American Capital provide still compelling dividends. Read the full article at Seekin

Green Dot Threatened By A Bluebird

Before the market opened on Monday, American Express Company (AXP) announced the official rollout of the Bluebird card with Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) . The Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) stock collapsed nearly 20% over the next two trading days to move back to all time lows. The company obtains 62% of revenues from a deal with Wal-Mart, so the market sees this as a potential major blow. The company provides widely distributed, low cost banking and payment solutions to a broad base of U.S. consumers. Green Dot's products and services include its market leading category of General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) prepaid cards and its industry-leading cash transfer network which are available directly to consumers online and through a network of approximately 60,000 retail stores nationwide where 95% of Americans shop. While this deal could be a threat to the revenue stream, one has to question whether American Express is the answer for the unbanked. What is the catch? How could a company

One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebook

A couple of news items were released last Thursday that highlighted the short thesis in Facebook (FB) . First, the company released news regarding hitting 1B monthly active users (MAU). Though initially sounding bullish, the number highlights the slowing growth trajectory. Second, Zynga (ZNGA) warned of reduced growth going forward, suggesting a considerable reduction in Facebook-related revenue and usage. Also last week, CEO Mark Zuckerburg made the media circles with an appearance with Matt Lauer on NBC and a Businessweek interview. The interesting take away from both interviews was the focus on MAU. For some reason, these media outlets didn't press the issue on the reduction in usage reported by comScore or the lack of focus on daily active users (DAU). Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Short FB. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Cool Commercial From Velti Highlighting Mobile Advertising

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The below commerical is from Velti (VELT) , a leader in the mobile marketing and advertising sectors. The stock continues suffer though the company has substantial growth and profits. Interesting to see the possibilities as shown via this ad. Disclosure: Long VELT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Investment Report - October 2012: Net Payout Yields

--> This model was up 2.1% in September versus a 2.4% gain for the benchmark S&P 500. The model slightly under performed the market in September, which can happen in solidly positive months. The model is now up over 20% for the year. Trades As mentioned in the last several monthly reports, one goal of this model is to slowly trim the amount of positions back closer to 20 after reaching 26 a few months back due to mergers and partial positions. The position count remained at 24 at month end, but a partial position in Vale S.A. (VALE) was increased in order to fill out the position. The Gap, Inc. (GPS) was sold, as the position became the largest one in the portfolio after an incredible gain by the stock. After a 100% gain for the year, the Net Payout Yields (NPY) declined to the point that Gap was no longer attractive for this model. Read our Seeking Alpha article for more details. With the cash from the Gap sell, Motorola Solutions (MSI) was purchased

Comcast Has Soared Too Much

The amazing part about the current rally is that the slow growing industries such as utilities and cable companies have led the rally. For the most part though, the rally hasn't been based on any fundamental changes in those industries. Most notably the move has been based on an investor chase for yield. Stocks paying 4% dividend yields are attracting investors getting next to nothing in 10-year Treasuries. So why has Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) followed in that rally? The current yield of 1.8% shouldn't be enough to attract investors with the stock trading at nearly 17x next year's earnings. In comparison, Time Warner Cable (TWC) pays 2.3%, while communications providers AT&T (T), V erizon Communications (VZ) , and Vodafone (VOD) pay over 4%. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long VOD. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Mobile Monetization Index

With the much-published failures of Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG) to monetize mobile traffic that switched from desktop, the sector has obtained a ton of bad press, mostly from uninformed journalists and investors not understanding the difference between legacy companies and new entrants focused on mobile. While other people focus on the rather large missteps, Stone Fox Capital has been focused on the companies benefiting from the monumental shift to mobile provided by fast wireless data networks and a movement to more advanced smartphones and now, more importantly, tablets. A whole slew of companies are benefiting from this shift as happens with every technological move. Legacy companies either aren't savvy enough to make the shift or the economic structure prohibits a move as revenue is cannibalized by the currently lower monetization rates. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long VELT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

American Capital's Underappreciated Buyback

The market has become so obsessed with dividends that a company buying stock at a 40% discount to net asset value (NAV) is often questioned for not paying dividends instead. In fact, American Capital, Ltd. (ACAS) recently announced completing an 11.4M share buyback in Q3 that will undoubtedly be questioned on the next earnings call. The company bought the stock at an average price of $10.99, for a total cost of $125M. Considering the substantial purchases below book value, the transactions will add over $0.20 to NAV. A smaller buyback in Q2 at a slightly higher discount to NAV added $0.20. American Capital is a private equity firm and global asset manager. American Capital, both directly and through its asset management business, originates, underwrites, and manages investments in middle market private equity, leveraged finance, real estate and structured products. American Capital manages $17.2 billion of assets, including assets on its balance sheet and fee earning assets under mana

666 Followers On Seeking Alpha....Uh...

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Thanks to everybody that has recently followed me on Seeking Alpha. Not to mention anybody that has actively followed me for the last several years. Please though can you have a buddy follow me so that I'm not stuck on 666. Doesn't bode well for the weekend.

Still No Tailwinds For Mosaic, Just Yet

The fertilizer sector still appears ready for a breakout year in 2013, as strong crop demand merges with weak production due to the severe drought in the U.S and various other weather issues around the world. About a month ago, this article focused on the potential at Mosaic (MOS) as the company reported strong demand in Q4. Since that report, many competitors have curtailed production and cancelled expansion projects due to a weak demand environment. The company is one of the world's leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. While Mosaic was very bullish on that earnings call in a similar tone as competitor Potash (POT) (see article here), the actual Q1 report released yesterday disappointed analysts. The company reported $1.01 per share versus analyst estimates at $1.15. The stock dropped 4% on the day, yet investors should've been aware of the potential weakness with all the weak demand notices during the quarter. Read the full a

SandRidge Energy: Not As Risky As It Appears

SandRidge Energy (SD) presented at the Johnson Rice Energy Conference yesterday. The presentation didn't provide a lot of new information, but it did further highlight how this company is less risky than it appears. The company is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on the Mississippian, Permian Basin, and now Gulf of Mexico. Since the CEO, Tom Ward, was a co-founder of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) , the company is routinely painted with the broad swath as being a risky wildcatter, similar to how Aubrey McClendon supposedly runs that company. While SandRidge has a propensity for debt and aggressive growth, management has correctly steered this company towards oil production that is hedged considerably into the future. Not to mention, the company takes on less risky and less costly drilling programs. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Chairs Are Like Facebook?

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Interesting to see  Facebook (FB) announce reaching 1B active users today and releasing this ad. If the company got to that many users without major ad spending, why start now? Is this a sign that Facebook is starting to lose users regardless of the announcement today? Its not like I need to be reminded to use a chair. If I want to connect with somebody, I'll use Facebook or maybe just pick up my smartphone. Either way, just doesn't seem like Facebook will be the lasting service for connecting with people. Just as AOL (AOL) and MySpace were in the past, Facebook is in the process of succumbing to more interesting methods. For now, it has some possibility of keeping users via its Instagram service. Either way, should the company be worth $47B? Let me know what you think of the commercial. Disclosure: Short FB. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The Juicy Problem At Fifth & Pacific Overshadows Kate Spade's Value

After the close on Monday, Fifth & Pacific Companies, Inc (FNP) warned that earnings would not meet expectations due to weakness with the Juicy Couture brand. With the stock trading down nearly 12%, the market is missing the surging results at kate spade. The company designs and markets a portfolio of retail-based, premium, global lifestyle brands including Juicy Couture, kate spade, and Lucky Brand. In addition, the Adelington Design Group markets private brand jewelry and the company licenses the Liz Claiborne New York brand. It also owns 18.75% of Mexx. While the other divisions continue hitting on all cylinders, the Juicy Couture brand continues to struggle. Management had expected Juicy to turn around by the 2H of 2012, but the rewarding turnarounds at kate spade and Lucky Brand also took longer than originally expected. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long FNP. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For October

This article is a continuation of a monthly series highlighting the top net payout yield stocks that was started in June (see article). The series highlights the best stocks for the upcoming month. Net Payout Yields Defined The net payout yield is the combination of the dividend yield and the net buyback yield added together to calculate the yield returned to shareholders. The net buyback yield adds stock repurchases and subtracts shares issued. The yield is calculated using the amount of buybacks over the last four quarters divided by the current market cap. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long COP, GS, KSS, MSI, and WLP. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Mobile Is Not The Problem At Facebook

Facebook (FB) COO, Sheryl Sandborg, had an interesting interview on CNBC today. The comments about monetizing mobile traffic is definitely positive for the stock. My biggest concern remains that all of the conversation regards monetizing traffic instead of solving the traffic problem. Anybody interested can read the summary by Julia Boorstin at mediamoney.cnbc.com . Below is one of the segmentss posted on CNBC: The interview does discuss growing users and engagement, but at no point does it address the declining traffic. The analysts made some interesting points regarding the 30% drop in desktop traffic for the 12-17 year old crowd. With that crowd leaving, it means the future college crowd will be gone as well if it isn't already. As discussed in our SA article , the comScore stats were very discouraging for a company with a $43B market cap. Long investors need to be careful. Disclsoure: No position mentioned, but might short FB within the next 72 hours.

The Last Thing Sprint Needed Was More Competition

Sprint Nextel Corp (S) continues an impressive comeback that has seen the number three domestic wireless provider reclaim its position as a force in the domestic markets. Unfortunately though, news came out today that fourth place provider T-Mobile (DTEGY.PK) just scored a $2.4B cash deal to leaseback cell towers, just weeks after T-Mobile hired a heavy hitting CEO to reinvigorate subscriber growth with a target on Sprint. As Stone Fox Capital wrote back at the end of August, Sprint was starting to thrive by being the leading wireless provider with an unlimited data plan and the non-duopoly player that has the iPhone. Do these announcements change the dynamics in the sector? The last thing Sprint needs is a competitor attacking their base just as the company is getting its act together. Competition remains one of the biggest drawbacks to investing in the wireless service provider sector. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review