Out Fox The $treet

    Palo Alto Networks, Inc. faces valuation pressure from AI-driven competition and slowing organic growth despite platformization efforts. Recent large acquisitions—CyberArk and Chronosphere—signal gaps in PANW's platform strategy and introduce integration risks. Organic revenue growth is decelerating, with FQ3 organic guidance at only 13% and legacy business showing signs of slowdown. PANW stock still trades at 41x FY27 EPS, with a $120 valuation target, reflecting AI risks and premium multiples. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ( PANW ), has slumped back towards the yearly lows due to the AI threat. Even if AI doesn't replace cybersecurity, the threat will continue hitting the  valuation multiples  of the  stock. My i nvestment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock due to its expensive valuation compared to the ...

Update - March 12, 2026 Rubrik reports FQ4  after the close. The current consensus is only 23% growth for FY27, so a guide up is likely. -Rubrik ( RBRK ) is scheduled to announce FQ4 earnings results on Thursday, March 12th, after market close. -The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.11 (+38.9% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $342.37M (+32.7% Y/Y) -------- FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.04  beats by $0.15 . Revenue of $377.68M (+46.3% Y/Y)   beats by $35.31M . FQ1 r evenue guidance of $365 million to $367 million vs consensus of $350.56M. FY27 revenue guidance of  $1,597 million to $1,607 million vs consensus of $1.58B. Original article posted on Feb. 12 Rubrik has declined over 50%, creating a compelling value entry for this AI-driven cybersecurity leader. RBRK's subscription ARR surged 34% in FQ3 2026 to $1.35 billion, with guidance for $1.44 billion by FY 2026 year-end. The stock trades at just 7x FY 2027 revenue and closer to 6x ARR, positioning RBRK as a top value...

  SentinelOne enters FQ4 earnings with shares trading at a yearly low due in part to AI-driven sector fears. The cybersecurity company has made a strong transition to AI-native products via internal development and recent AI-related acquisitions. The stock is cheap below 4x forward sales, while the FY27 guidance is expected to top 20% growth. SentinelOne, Inc.  ( S ) heads into FQ4 earnings with the stock oddly not trading down much over the last week due to the AI replacement fears. The cybersecurity stock was already trading substantially lower over the last 6 months due  to fears unexplained by the financial results. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on SentinelOne, with signs some AI-related acquisitions are paying off. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long S. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Palo Alto Networks is aggressively acquiring CyberArk and Chronosphere for a combined $28.4B to fill platform gaps, signaling strategic weaknesses. The cybersecurity company is still struggling to boost growth after the cybersecurity platformization shift with a FY26 forecast of only 14%. Recent deals will boost reported growth rates above 30%, but underlying organic growth remains lackluster and integration risks are elevated. The stock's valuation remains stretched at nearly 50x FY26 EPS and over 12x revenue, despite slowing organic growth and heavy shareholder dilution. Only months ago,  Palo Alto Networks Inc.  ( PANW ) bought  CyberArk Software Ltd.  ( CYBR ) in a deal where investors were warned to fade the rally. The cybersecurity company has long promoted  the platformization concept, but the company announced another deal to acquire  Chronosphere  highlighting the issues with the business model. My  investment thesis  remains ...

  SentinelOne delivered strong FQ2 results, with net new ARR rebounding to $53M and total ARR surpassing $1B, alleviating prior growth concerns. AI-driven products like Purple AI and Prompt Security are driving adoption, reducing security events, and positioning SentinelOne as a leader in enterprise AI security. The cybersecurity company now has positive operating margins and boasts $1.2B in cash, supporting continued innovation and strategic acquisitions. The stock valuation remains deeply discounted at 6x forward sales versus peers, offering compelling risk/reward as growth and multiple expansion potential remain high. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » SentinelOne, Inc.  ( NYSE: S ) rallied somewhat after a  strong FQ2 earnings report . The cybersecurity company has constantly been overlooked despite strong growth with a shifting focus on cloud and AI. ...

Update - Dec. 11  SentinelOne continues to trend down despite a strong October quarter with sales growing 28% to reach $210 million. The cybersecurity stock is easily the cheapest in the sector, yet the market has pushed SentinelOne down to only $23. The stock now trades at half the forward  EV/S multiple of CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) despite faster growth.  Original article posted on Dec. 3 SentinelOne, Inc. is a leader in cloud and AI security, showing strong ARR growth and taking market share from competitors like CrowdStrike. Despite high growth rates, SentinelOne trades discounted compared to peers like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, making it a compelling investment. The company is turning profitable, has a strong balance sheet, and is expected to report increasing revenues and profits, enhancing its investment appeal. S stock trades at only 8x forward revenues in a sector where typical valuations are much higher. Looking for a portfolio o...

  Palo Alto Networks' shift to platformization led to a $100 stock drop, but the stock has already mostly recovered. Despite a 20% RPO growth target, revenue growth lags at 13-14%, with EPS only rising 10% due to AI spending. The stock remains overpriced, trading at high multiples despite modest growth forecasts and potential risks from the CrowdStrike outage. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » At the start of the year,  Palo Alto Networks, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: PANW ) shocked the market with a planned strategy shift to the "platformization" concept. The stock fell about $100 on the news, yet the cybersecurity stock is now back close to prior  levels. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on Palo Alto Networks with growth still struggling to meet the elevated valuation levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position...

  Rubrik has demonstrated strong growth, with subscription ARR up 40% and total revenue increasing 35% year-over-year, despite trading near IPO lows. The company benefits from heightened demand for cyber resilience, highlighted by the recent CrowdStrike outage, which underscores the need for robust data recovery systems. With a market cap of $5.6 billion and ARR forecasted to top $1 billion, Rubrik's stock is an attractive buy at 5x forward EV/S targets. Despite another strong quarter,  Rubrik  ( NYSE: RBRK ) has traded near its lows since the IPO back in April. The company secures data and quickly helps enterprise customers recover data following  cyberattacks , or even the recent IT outage. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the cybersecurity stock, with strong growth oddly ignored. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. reported strong growth in FQ4'23, with revenues growing 48% YoY. The company continues to forecast sequential growth deceleration leading towards 30% growth as FY24 ends next January. CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock trades at over 10x FY24 sales targets, and analysts are dangerously promoting much richer valuations. Amazingly,  CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWD ) rallied into quarterly earnings with the stock rallying back up to $130. The cloud cybersecurity firm reported another strong quarter, but the guidance still points towards dramatically slowing growth in the year ahead. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bearish on the stock on these rallies to premium valuations knowing the trend isn’t the friend of shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Jan. 5 Looks like Jefferies is the grinch with the downgrade of CrowdStrike after the stock had fallen to nearly $100. The cybersecurity stock isn't a buy until it turns on such news.  -CrowdStrike — Shares of the cloud-based software company slid more than 8% to hit a new 52-week low after Jefferies downgraded CrowdStrike to hold from buy. The Wall Street firm said 2023 “will be a more challenging fundamental year for growth names.” Update - Dec. 30 The stock still appears headed lower with decisive new lows in the last week.  CrowdStrike has fallen nearly 200 points from the peak, but Wall Street analysts remain very bullish on the cybersecurity specialist. The company faces sales cycle delays, questioning how crucial the cybersecurity products are for customers. CRWD stock trades at 8x FY24 sales targets suggesting Grinch has yet to steal the presents for shareholders. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The...

CrowdStrike dipped following strong quarterly results, as the stock is still too expensive at over 17x FY21 sales. The looming venture fund sales will cap stock gains in the short term. Investors need to assume the stock breaches recent lows and touch the IPO price. When a company is worth more than 10x forward sales, execution has to be flawless for the stock to rally. In the case of  CrowdStrike Holdings  (NASDAQ: CRWD ), a stock trading closer to 20x forward sales has to virtually print money to reward shareholders. For this reason, my  investment thesis  remains very negative on this cybersecurity stock despite trading near the lows with the next strike of lockup expiration looming. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

After the close,  FireEye (FEYE)  released preliminary FQ3 revenues above the previous guidance while bookings were inline with guidance. The numbers aren't that impressive considering the company originally guided revenues below a consensus for the quarter of $229 million.  -The company posted early estimates for Q3 revenue "at or above the high end" of previous guidance for $217M-$221M, and billings to be within the range of $245M-$255M. -The consensus expectations for Q3 revenues of $219.5M.  The stock is worth about $3 billion with slow growth and prospects of generating only $50 million in free cash flow this year. The cybersecurity company continues to go nowhere fast. FireEye likely rallies to $16-17, but the stock isn't going to $22 anytime soon as UBS recently speculated. Investors should look to unload on any pop on these numbers.   More research: FireEye: Struggler More commentary - WhoTrades Disclosure: No position....

CyberArk (CYBR) plays in the volatile cybersecurity sector where companies constantly miss estimates after a big run. The stock made an attempted run at a breakout above $80 today.

FireEye generated impressive Q3 results with impressive cash flow improvements. The cybersecurity company is in the midst of a shift towards Security as a Service. The weak Q4 guidance placed the stock right back in the penalty box when trading at multi-year highs near $20. My   investment thesis   has long held with most stocks that unless the stock throws off cash every day the company opens for business, the stock just isn't appealing.   FireEye   ( FEYE ) has long fell into that category due to the lack of growth to vastly change the cash flow picture, but the recent   Q3 results change the equation ever so slightly. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

FireEye has vastly improved financial results in the last couple of years. The cybersecurity company still isn't predicting generating large cash flows and profits. The stock won't rally much farther until FireEye shows that the business isn't structurally low margin. Last year,  FireEye  ( FEYE ) became a compelling  turnaround story  as business under the surface improved from a shift to subscription services while the cost structure was finally aligned with the revenue stream. Unfortunately, the company is still running into some of the legacy cost issues that will hold the cybersecurity specialist's stock back. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

As I posted on WhoTrades yesterday, the tweets of MGT Capital's (MGT) new CEO John McAfee assured the market that the soaring stock wasn't a pump and dump. The odd part is that the tweets from the legendary CEO only played into the stock pump. The stock traded up to $5.58 today for an incredible surge from only $0.25 in April. Despite his past success with McAfee in the cybersecurity space, he is now 70 years old and technically running for president as well. His D-Vasive company that focuses on anti-spy software doesn't appear to have much in sales. The deal involved MGT paying D-Vasive 23.8 million shares and $300,000 in stock. The deal was for 47% of the company making the stock valuation over $275 million at the peak today. A big key is that McAfee was willing to accept less than 50% of the MGT stock for his company for a value of below $10 million at the time of the deal. Even at the close, MGT has no business trading for a valuation of around $132 million. ...

CyberArk continues struggling to gain traction despite the cybersecurity focus of the Chinese President's visit to the U.S. Several analysts have upgraded the stock after the recent dip below $50. The privileged account specialist provides a compelling free cash flow story though short-term issues will impact the stock for now. With the U.S. visit of the Chinese President, cybersecurity is back in prime focus. However, stocks of the related cybersecurity companies aren't trading as well. One stock getting a lot of analyst praise lately is CyberArk (NASDAQ: CYBR ). Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

FireEye announced a new CFO who is expected to join the company on September 21. The stock has failed to keep up with industry peers in a large part due to a lack of financial discipline. Investors should keep an eye on the company with an opportunity to scoop up cheap shares if the new CFO can keep growth and instill discipline. The hiring of a new CFO is a big step forward for FireEye (NASDAQ: FEYE ). Normally, the abrupt exit of a CFO is a major red flag, but the hiring of a replacement doesn't garner much interest. Due to the unique situation of the cybersecurity stock and frustrations over financial discipline, this hiring has more than the normal relevance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.