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Showing posts from August, 2023

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Nvidia: The Gig Is Likely Up

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Update - Aug. 30, 2023 Nvidia get easily pop to new highs on the big guide up to FQ3 revenues of $16 billion. Though, the big risk to longs is a potential double top setting up after the run to $500 today.    Original article published on Aug. 14 Nvidia Corporation hit our target price of $480 providing the opportune time to exit on momentum at a premium price. The company is facing an AI GPU chip shortage potentially limiting sales growth and pushing customers to seek cheaper alternatives from AMD. The stock still trades at a very expensive 17x FY25 sales that appear increasing difficult to meet, much less exceed. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Unfortunately, these articles can't be written fast enough, but  Nvidia Corporation  ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) hit our prior price target and rolled over the last few weeks. The stock jumped nearly 200 points on soaring AI GPU demand, but the...

AMD: Strong Read From Nvidia's AI GPU Surge

  Nvidia reported explosive AI GPU sales growth and signals supply will support higher growth going forward. Advanced Micro Devices' competing AI GPU chip, MI300, is set to hit the market in Q4 and has significant capacity secured. The company has significant upside with analyst estimates not factoring in massive upside potential from AI GPU sales. AMD stock is cheap at closer to only 20x '24 EPS targets. After the close,  Nvidia  ( NVDA ) reported much anticipated results for the  July quarter . The company reported explosive AI GPU sales growth and signaled supply will support higher growth going forward. The news has huge implications for  Advanced Micro Devices  ( NASDAQ: AMD ) with a competing AI GPU chip hitting the market in Q4 and the numbers from Nvidia reinforce the statements from AMD management. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock now trading at the recent lows despite a lot of bullish indications for upcoming gro...

Hims & Hers Q2 Earnings: Portfolio Cure

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Updated Aug. 23, 2023 Hims continues trending down. The stock remains appealing on these dips with software like margins and growth rates.  Update Aug. 17, 2023 Hims & Hers continues to dip following another great earnings report. The online health and wellness platform continues to shift towards profitable precisions treatments, but the market has missed the shift. Definitely a stock to watch for when Hims hits the lows.  Original article published on Aug. 16  Hims & Hers Health, Inc. falls despite a strong Q2 '23 earnings report. The company remains on the path to a 2025 revenue target of $1.2+ billion. The stock is cheap at 1.3x forward EV/S targets for a high gross margin business. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Despite another strong quarter,  Hims & Hers Health, Inc.  ( NYSE: HIMS ) stock fell after  Q2 '23 results  beat consensus estimates. ...

SoFi: Another Irrational Beatdown

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  SoFi Technologies, Inc. has consistently collapsed following strong earnings reports, leaving the stock trading below the $10 SPAC deal price. The digital bank's expansion into the mortgage loan market could be a major. The stock only trades at 14.5x '24 adjusted EBITDA targets despite growth of nearly 60% doesn't add up. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   In a now consistent pattern,  SoFi Technologies, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) has collapsed following another  strong earnings report . The digital bank platform has now reported a very consistent and strong history of growing following the  SPAC deal back in late 2020, but the stock actually trades below the $10 deal price. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock on another dip to $8. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer pag...

indie Semiconductor: Irrational Dip

indie Semiconductor sold off despite strong quarterly earnings, leaving the stock stuck below $10. The company forecasts maintaining 100% growth, yet the stock still appears in the penalty box due to the SPAC transaction. The stock trades at only 4x forward sales, which is similar to slow growth mega-cap semiconductor stocks. indie Semiconductor  ( NASDAQ: INDI ) had a bizarre sell-off following another great quarterly earnings report. The Autotech semiconductor company continues growing revenues at a 100% clip, but the stock remains stuck below $10. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish  on indie now trading at only $7.50 following the post Q2 selloff. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Ouster: Full Speed Ahead Now

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Update - Aug. 11, 2023 Ouster reported a solid quarter with the market keying on the big bookings numbers. The stock is only back to pre-split levels around $0.65.  -Revenue: $19M, up 13% QoQ, 88% YoY -Bookings: $43M, 126% Book-to-Bill -Non-GAAP gross margin: 26% -Targeting annual cost savings of $110M by Q4'23 Q3'23 revenue guidance: $20 - $22M Original article posted on May 14 Ouster reported solid Q1'23 numbers and guided towards Q2 revenues reaching $20 million. The Lidar sensor company reported Q1 binding bookings at $33 million. OUST stock is cheap at ~1x '24 sales targets despite growth rates approaching 100%. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Ouster  ( NYSE: OUST ) collapsed over the last quarter following a perplexing Q4 earnings report leading to a reverse split. The Lidar company just announced the continuation of an automotive deal and the business appears back...

Disney: Sentiment Shift For Limited Time

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  Disney's stock is expected to rally in the short term due to the Penn Gaming deal and bouncing off the $85 support level. Disney's streaming business is struggling, with declining subscribers for the key ESPN+ service. The stock trades at 17x aggressive FY24 EPS targets, providing limited upside on any rally. After a horrible year,  Walt Disney Company  ( NYSE: DIS ) appears poised for a quick rally over the short term. The company has not resolved the problem in the streaming market with weak subscriber numbers and the  Penn  Gaming  ( PENN ) deal amounts to a very small deal to enter the gaming sector. My  investment thesis  is now bullish on Disney for a quick trade before the really tough market of the last couple of years has led to a double bottom for the stock around $85. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Occidental Petroleum: Q2 Results Prove Buffett Overpaid

  Occidental Petroleum reported weak Q2'23 numbers with a big EPS miss. OXY stock has been propped up by Warren Buffett aggressively buying shares over the last year at elevated prices. Occidental Petroleum trades at over 20x normalized EPS targets and should be avoided. After the close,  Occidental Petroleum Corporation  ( NYSE: OXY ) reported disappointing  Q2 2023 results . As long predicted, analysts weren't accurately predicting the return to lower earnings based on historical energy prices. My  investment thesis  remains  Bearish on OXY stock, still trading over $60 due to the Warren Buffett put. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details .