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Showing posts from May, 2021

Luminar: Building The Order Book, But Not Cheap

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  Luminar continues to add partnerships and build their order book beyond the $1.8 billion target for 2021. The company continues to supply lidar sensors to the biggest players in the auto sector, including a surprise test with Tesla. The stock has limited upside trading at 8.5x 2025 revenue targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The lidar space remains the Wild West of the public stock market where companies went public via SPACs at high valuations based on current revenues.  Luminar Technologies  ( LAZR ) is the leader in the space with connections to the biggest auto companies and the first to go public, but the stock remains at an elevated valuation. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on Luminar after the recent sell-off leaves the stock closer to the lows. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for mo

Columbia Care: Massive Cannabis MSO On The Cheap

  Columbia Care continues to build into a massive MSO with 2021 revenue guidance at $515 million and 2020 analyst estimates topping $750 million. The MSO has a strong position in the combined $8 billion market opportunity in New York and New Jersey. The stock trades at less than 3x 2022 revenue targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Along with the general cannabis multi-state operator   space in the U.S., Columbia Care ( OTCQX:CCHWF ) has seen a pullback in the last few months. The stock is down ~$2 as the excitement surrounding federal cannabis legalization has faded recently. For this reason, my  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the MSO building into one of the leading players in the sector. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Aeva: Buy 4D LiDAR On The Dip

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  Aeva missed Q1 financial targets, but the investment isn't based on 2021 results. The company announced an encouraging landmark deal, but the lack of details worried the market. The stock trades nearly 20% below the SPAC deal price, providing a speculative opportunity. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - June 14 Didn't get the same press as the other lidar stocks, but $ AEVA  is joing the Russell 2000 as well. The stock is very appealing back at $10.  -MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA) (NYSE: AEVA, “Aeva” or the “Company”), a leader in next-generation sensing and perception systems, today announced that it is set to join the small-cap Russell 2000® Index and broad-market Russell 3000® Index, as well as

AMD: Not The $4 Billion Reasons To Own

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  AMD announced a $4 billion share buyback cheered by the market, yet only amounting to 3% of the combined company once adding Xilinx. The combined company expects billions in additional revenue by 2023 in comparison to when the merger was announced just in October. The stock is cheap as 2022 EPS estimates start pushing toward $3. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Now that Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) has dispelled the Intel ( INTC ) risks in the near term, investors can return to focusing on the long-term growth story of the chip company. The recent dip into the low $70s provided an opportune time for new investors to invest in this story alongside the company. My  investment thesis  remains highly bullish on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Update - June 2 Just another reason to own AMD. Se

cbdMD: The Wanted Pullback

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  cbdMD reported a strong March quarter with net revenues growing 26%. The pure-play CBD player guided December quarter sales to grow by 35% to reach nearly $16 million. The stock is cheap at below 3x FY22 sales estimates that appear very low with the potential for the ingestible market to finally move forward. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The U.S. cannabidiol  (CBD)  space was a tough place to invest in the last year or so.  cbdMD  ( YCBD ) was a $6 stock back in mid-2019 and investors can now buy the stock sub-$3 despite the general bullish long-term view of the CBD space. My  investment thesis  is more bullish on the stock as the mass retailers look to move forward with stocking CBD-infused food products with or without FDA approval. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - August

Velodyne Lidar: Painful Progress

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  Velodyne Lidar reported a solid Q1 earnings report, but the company disappointed with the 2021 guidance. The company still expects sales to accelerate once Covid restrictions are lifted in areas like Europe and Asia. The stock is cheap with a $2 billion valuation and 29 multi-year agreements already in place. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The biggest issue when the lidar sensor companies came public via SPACs was whether the market could handle the unpredictable nature of the development phase in the space. Velodyne Lidar ( VLDR ) continues to add multi-year agreements and expand the pipeline, but the stock has fallen due to disappointing quarterly results. My  investment thesis  remains bullish on the stock and the sector. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 19 The CEO steps down, but the

Affirm: Still A Better Buy Later

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  Affirm plunges following a weak sequential guidance for FQ4. The BNPL service continues to onboard Shop Pay merchants providing a substantial growth opportunity. The fintech takes on more credit risk than probably understood by the market at the time of the overhyped IPO. The stock remains expensive based on pure revenue metrics of 14x FY22 estimates. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The buy now, pay later stock continues to slump as the market right-sizes their view on  Affirm Holdings  ( AFRM ). The stock surged to nearly $150 following a hot IPO, but Affirm has now slumped below $50. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock as guidance doesn't match the huge ramp in merchants. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 19 The lower reset continues. -Mizuho Bank ana

Trulieve Cannabis: Giant Deal Discounted

  Trulieve Cannabis agrees to buy Harvest Health for $2.1 billion. The combined company has the leading profitability position for 2021. The new Trulieve Cannabis still trades at a discount to MSO peers, but the company won't be the largest cannabis company by revenues in 2022. The stock remains a bargain, but Trulieve is likely to trade at a discount as the single state focus remains. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » In a somewhat surprising move,  Trulieve Cannabis  ( OTCQX:TCNNF ) agreed to acquire struggling multi-state operator (MSO)  Harvest Health & Recreation  ( OTCQX:HRVSF ) in a  giant deal  in the cannabis space. The combined company will now compete for the largest cannabis company in the world title. My  investment thesis  remains bullish on the leading MSOs, as those companies consolidate the largest cannabis market in the world before outside companies are allowed into the U.S.

Skillz: Costing Too Much To Acquire Customers

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  Skillz beats Q1 revenue targets and guides up revenues for 2021. The company spent nearly $100 million on sales and marketing without meaningful growth in the MAUs for Q1. The stock is far too expensive at 20x '21 sales targets when the user base isn't growing despite wild UA marketing spending. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » After a roller coaster ride the last six months,  Skillz  ( SKLZ ) has traded in a range under $20. The stock remains vastly overvalued for the current business prospects of the mobile skill based competition platform. My  investment thesis  remains negative on the stock after the recent rally back to overvalued levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - August 1 As investors were warned many times, Skillz was far over valued above at just $15. The gaming company spent far too mu

Under Armour: Moving Beyond 2019 Levels

  Under Armour smashed analyst estimates, producing revenues topping 2019 levels. The company boosted gross margins by 370 basis points to 50.0%, providing substantial leverage to the bottom line. The stock is cheap trading at 2x sales targets, far below peers. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While  Under Armour  ( UAA ,  UA ) reported a  strong quarter  that blew past analyst estimates, the stock is selling off despite the company smashing past 2019 numbers. The performance athletic apparel maker is in the midst of a massive turnaround, but the market isn't able to distinguish the rebound from Q1 shutdowns. My  investment thesis  remains more bullish on the stock long term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.