Showing posts from May, 2024

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Enphase Energy: Market Wants An Irrational Rally

  Enphase Energy, Inc. has seen initial signs of a turnaround in the residential solar business in key European countries, but actual demand is lower than expected. The company has been under shipping demand to reduce inventory in the channel, but the market forecasts a nearly 70% boost in sales from the current sell-through levels. The stock already trades at 20x '26 EPS targets, with many questions about the aggressive growth required to reach those levels. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The solar space has gone through a digestion phase with light at the end of the tunnel finally.  Enphase Energy, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: ENPH ) has seen initial signs of the residential solar business turning in key European countries, but  the actual demand was far less than expected. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock after the recent rally has been met with tepid sell-t

Hims & Hers Health: Still Firing On Strong Cylinders

Update - May 21  Hims has slumped some after the initial 30% rally on Monday. The telehealth company should benefit from offering a compound GLP-1 version at a discounted price. The big question is the financial impact. The stock only trades at 3x '24 sales targets making Hims intriguing on any further dip.  -Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) is offering customers access to compounded versions of Novo Nordisk's (NVO) semaglutide -- the active drug in its weight loss medication Wegovy -- at a fraction of the cost of the brand-name version. -The company said plans for injections of its compounded semaglutide -- which is also sold as the type 2 diabetes med Ozempic -- start at $199 a month. It is also offering a $79 a month plan for an oral version of semaglutide. That is also known as Novo's diabetes pill Rybelsus. Original article posted on May 7 Hims & Hers Health, Inc. is leading in personalized health and building a strong health and wellness platform, leading to str

Trump Media: Excitement Set To Slump

Updated - May 21, 2024 Trump Media & Technology Group actually reported a dip in revenues for Q1. In addition, the media company nearly listed more retail shareholders than revenues. Truth Social continues to have virtually no business, yet the stock only slumped to $44.  Revenues fell to $770,500 from a year-ago $1.116M, and those sales largely came from  the company's "nascent advertising initiative, which will continue to evolve as TMTG implements its vision," the company said. Successfully Debuted as Public Company, and Now Has Over 621,000 Retail Shareholders. Updated - April 8  As expected, Trump Media is slumping after an initial burst following the consummation of the SPAC merger with Digital World. DJT is already down 50% from the initial highs.  Original article published on April 2  Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. completed its SPAC deal with Digital World Acquisition Corp, but shareholders now face major risks with the stock market shifting focus

Nextdoor: Reinvigorating Growth

  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. is experiencing reinvigorated growth with the return of its founding CEO. The company should exit the year with a 10%+ sales growth rates, adding to investor interest in the local social platform. Nextdoor Holdings stock trades below 2x EV/S targets due to a strong cash balance of $500 million. After a tough couple of years following the Covid boom,  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.  ( NYSE: KIND ) appears back in growth mode. The local social media player has the founding CEO back in charge and signs of reinvigorated growth are  starting to pop up. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock, trading at just $2 despite a strong  balance sheet . Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long KIND. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

SoundHound AI: Don't Chase AI Hype Following Q1 Earnings

  SoundHound AI reported 73% sales growth in Q1, boosted by an acquisition. The company doesn't provide enough clarity on the restaurant voice AI ordering opportunity, and the large cumulative backlog doesn't amount to large annual revenues. SOUN stock valuation is too high at 17x 2025 sales targets, making it an unattractive investment. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » SoundHound AI, Inc.   ( NASDAQ: SOUN ) is one of the more promising artificial intelligence ("AI") stocks, but the company doesn't aggressively push the voice AI opportunity and generally lacks scale to fend off competition. The stock constantly jumps to prices requiring far  faster AI growth and market control to warrant an investment. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock following the post earnings rally back above $5. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosu

Roblox: Major Ads Catalyst

Update - May 9 Roblox is trading down some 30% pre-market on the mobile gaming platform lowering bookings for 2024. The stock will be down to only 4x bookings estimates making Roblox a true bargain at the open below $30.  - -The company also lowered its full-year bookings forecast, as it now sees the closely watched metric coming in between $4B and $4.1B fro 15% growth, down from a prior outlook of $4.14B to $4.28B. Q1'24 Performance Metrics:   Daily Active Users (DAUs): 77.7M; UP +17% YoY Hours Engaged: 16.7B; UP +15% YoY Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: $238.9M; UP +37% YoY Free Cash Flow: $191.1M; UP +133% YoY Average Bookings per DAU: $11.89; UP +2% YoY Original article posted on Apr. 16 Roblox Corporation is partnering with PubMatic to launch immersive video ads on its platform, targeting major brands and driving revenue growth. The U.S. video game-advertising business is expected to exceed $10 billion in 2025, presenting a significant revenue opportunity fo