Out Fox The $treet

  Apple Inc. is quickly working on an AI chat product to compete in the suddenly hot generative AI category. The tech giant is now playing catch-up against other tech giants in several key categories like AI chat and AR/VR devices. Apple stock is incredibly expensive at 32x FY23 EPS targets even as Apple continues falling beyond in AI. A constant negative thesis with   Apple Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) these days is that it is a business behind on new product development. The latest news of the tech giant entering the generative artificial intelligence ("AI") race appears to be another  sign of Apple being behind the leaders in another product category. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock while trading near all-time highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Top trending article on Seeking Alpha.  Apple has fallen 9% in the first year since the 4-year dead money call made in March 2022. The company has seen EPS estimates fall in the year due to weak demand for tech products. Analysts continue to promote aggressive price targets keeping the stock inflated at the current price of $150. Based on updated FY26 EPS targets, Apple has a maximum March 2026 valuation similar to the current price using a possibly aggressive P/E multiple of 20x. Exactly a year ago, Stone Fox Capital  made the prediction  that  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) would trade flat to down for the next 4 years. The tech giant had rallied above $160 on new product hype and  analyst projections of much higher prices. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock even after a nearly 10% dip in the last year, especially with a leading research firm again out promoting a massive gain from already elevated levels. Read the full article on See...

  Apple continues working on turning the Apple Watch into a medical device. The tech giant has made progress on a glucose monitoring system with the signs the concept works, but the company needs to scale the product into a wearable form factor. The stock is already priced for a Holy Grail new product, while investors should buy the stock when a new medical device is a bonus for a cheap stock. Apple shouldn't already trade at 25x FY23 EPS targets. The holy grail of the  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) Watch is turning the product into a medical device. The tech company has a promising new use for the watch, but the market has already hyped the entry  of the company into the blood glucose monitoring market. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bearish on the stock until investors can purchase the stock with upside potential from such new products, instead of the current scenario where Apples falls unless the company releases new hit products. Read the full article ...

  Apple has now fallen over $25 since the dead money call over 7 months ago. The tech giant continues to see key products pushed out with the 2nd-generation AR/VR models potentially delayed until 1H'25. The stock is still expensive at nearly 20x FY26 EPS targets. About 7 months ago, our view was that  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) was  dead money  for at least 4 years. The stock was at $166 when the article was published and now trades at $140, so far living  up to the dead money theory. My  investment thesis  still predicts the tech giant won't see any upside until at least FY26 due to the constant push out of key new products. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Apple trades at a premium valuation in the tech sector, but Alphabet is forecasted to far exceed the growth rates of Apple. Alphabet has the potential to out-innovate Apple in the key AV and AR/VR device segments, where Apple has the bigger hype. Due to innovation dynamics, growth, and valuation, Alphabet is poised to rally in a bull market while Apple could collapse in further market weakness rewarding a short position. The pair trade pays off because the opposite investment should remain flat in both scenarios. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   One of the better pair trades to execute right now is going long  Alphabet  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ) ( NASDAQ: GOOGL ) and short  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ). Both companies fall into the FAANG group of  giant tech stocks out of favor in the current market, but Apple remains far too beloved in comparison to Alphabet. Not to ment...

  Apple continues to race towards $200 as multiple analysts hike price targets despite limited boosts to projected growth over the next couple of years. The average price target on Apple actually remains below the current stock price. The narrowing market breadth due in large part to Apple will lead to a larger market dip. The stock shouldn't trade at 35x forward EPS estimates despite all of the recent analyst projections. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » Day after day, analysts attempt to one up each other with higher price targets for  Apple  ( AAPL ). The tech giant already trades at all-time highs with a near peak forward P/E multiple despite the desire by analysts to suddenly hike price targets. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock at all-time highs while growth rates are set to cool. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha....

Apple closes all retail stores outside Greater China and should take a large hit to FQ2 and FQ3 sales. The company had most China stores closed for about one month. The market will increasingly look towards FY21 sales that should see a boost from delayed spending. My estimate is for a FY21 EPS boost to $17, making the $250 stock cheap at 14.7x this target. Apple  (NASDAQ: AAPL ) has seen several analysts  cut price targets  on the stock due to cuts to FY20 numbers. Regardless, the stock remains a strong investment option based on normalized numbers not impacted by the coronavirus impact on the global economy. My  investment thesis  recommends investing in stocks based on FY21 numbers that might even get a boost from sales pushed into the next fiscal year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple warned on FQ2 revenues missing estimates due to coronavirus impact. Analysts remain very bullish on the company's prospects long term. The stock only trades $8 away from all-time highs. The stock isn't a buy until more realistic expectations emerge for the COVID-19 revenues impact. In no real surprise,  Apple  ( AAPL )  warned on revenue estimates  for the current quarter only about three weeks since the company provided  robust expectations  for FQ2 despite some fears on the coronavirus. My  previous research  had warned the stock wasn't appealing in the $320 range due to low yields and the virus issue in China and this warning reinforces this thesis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple has a home run in the true wireless space with the AirPods Pro. The projections for selling 60 million units this year and close to 100 million units next year suddenly has AirPods as a $20 billion business. The tech giant should easily top my previous model for FY21 product revenues of $230 billion. My updated FY21 EPS estimate is $15.25, placing the stock at an EV of 15.9x those estimates. While  Apple  ( AAPL ) analysts focus on the surprise success of the iPhone 11, the market has generally ignored the massive success of the AirPods Pro. The tech giant continues to turn the wearables segment into a huge business, building another major growth avenue where competitors constantly fail. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the stock's path to $300 and beyond. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple TV+ will contribute to strong gross profit growth through 2025. China remains the biggest short-term threat and is likely to eventually hit the stock. Katy Huberty is under-estimating the potential in Apple TV+ as price hikes for the service are likely to push base revenues to $11.4 billion by 2025. The stock is best bought at dips after reaching an all-time high near $250. My  investment thesis  has me recommending that investors avoid buying  Apple  (NASDAQ: AAPL ) shares at an all-time high as the China risks are real in the short term. In the long term, the tech giant is poised to benefit from a further surge in services driving the business towards higher total margins. My 2025 view is now included in my estimates to provide an overview of the upside potential over the next five years for Apple. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

The company has a Chinese business worth in the $45 billion range in FY19 partially at risk due to these trade tensions. The 2018 holiday results were crushed by abnormal results in China, while numerous other countries hit all-time record revenues. Any China hit would place Apple EPS estimates at risk due to a cut to FY20 revenue growth. The stock doesn't offer the ideal value at all-time highs with these risks. As  Apple  (NASDAQ: AAPL ) trades around all-time highs, the tech giant appears to have another China problem similar to last year. The U.S. government remains in a major trade war with the Chinese despite promoting major progress at negotiations last week. Several companies ran afoul of the Chinese government officials recently leaving a company like Apple vulnerable to losing one of the largest markets for the tech giant. My  long-term investment thesis  remains bullish, but buying the stock here while facing a China problem is a different ...

Qualcomm settles long lasting patent disputes with Apple. The new deal will immediately boost EPS estimates. The stock remains cheap with reasonable $7 EPS targets and a $70 stock price. In no big surprise to investors following our   investment research   on   Qualcomm   ( QCOM ), the company was able to obtain a   settlement   with   Apple ( AAPL ) over their wide disputes on patent royalties. The wireless technology giant had already garnered settlements in China and South Korea along with recent admission from Japan regulators that Qualcomm was not a monopoly. Along with constant signs that Apple was struggling to obtain a viable 5G modem by 2020, the expected outcome was a settlement that would send the stock soaring. Outside of unexpected financial terms, Qualcomm heads higher. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary on WhoTrades .  Disclosure: Long AAPL, QCOM. Please read the disclaimer page for m...

Apple shares consolidated and will double from here. The Markets think iPhone unit sales drive revenue. It does. And as iPhone XR, XS models get a price cut of ~ 5%, hardware sales will jump by more than  that. ... EPS will continue its upward path: Number crunch the fair value on Apple Stock.

Wearables have the potential of moving the needle at Apple. Adding health monitoring to AirPods expands the potential shift to medical devices. Medical device stocks trade at much higher valuations. Anything driving sales higher is a plus for a stock only trading an EV/S multiple of 10x. For a company with a revenue base of over $250 billion,   Apple   ( AAPL ) struggles to find opportunities that will move the needle. One potential revenue source is in medical devices as the tech giant moves into wearables that function as tech devices and health monitors. My   investment thesis remains bullish on the stock around $150. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL, FIT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

In the span of a couple of months, Apple (AAPL) has gone from the first Trillion dollar company to the fourth largest in the US. Amazingly, Microsoft (MSFT) has taken the lead over Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) .

After the close, Apple (AAPL) updated the market with a big guide down for FQ1. The new revenue target is down about 7% from expectations.

Analysts are providing a holiday gift with the constant price targets cuts on Apple. The number of Buy ratings on the stock are at a low since the financial crisis. The actual number cuts aren't that aggressive. The stock trades at only 11.7x FY20 estimates before excluding a large cash balance. Ever since  Apple  ( AAPL ) reported  FQ4 results  back on November 1, analysts have repeatedly come out negative on the stock. The company decided to quit reporting iPhone unit sales and the market hasn't stopped hammering the stock on feared sales weakness. One of the best ways to play analysts downgrading a stock in mass is to take a contrary view and the recent price cut of an ultra-bull is the likely signal that analysts are generally done cutting Apple targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Apple apparently obtained a large hike to the fees Google pay as the default search browser on Apple products. Google has recently complained about the rising TAC. The near pure profit search revenues should boost FY19 EPS targets towards $14.50. One doesn't have to look very hard to make a   bullish thesis   on   Apple   ( AAPL ) based on their growth in the Services division. The shocking news of the last week is that a portion of the revenue base is set for a major boost thanks to   Google   ( GOOG ,   GOOGL ). These high-margin revenues might provide a bigger boost to the bottom line than the new iPhones. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

Despite surging past a $1 trillion market cap, Apple remains cheap trading at roughly 14x FY19 estimates, ex-cash. Active iPhone device growth continues to provide a boost to service revenues. Apple remains on pace for a 10% net payout yield. Due to huge free cash flows in the December quarter, the tech giant will hardly reduce cash balances in the 2H at the $25 billion quarterly capital return pace. Now that   Apple   ( AAPL ) has crossed the $1 trillion market cap threshold, the capital returns need to be reviewed again to derive whether value still exists in the stock. The famous plan for a $100 billion boost to stock buybacks was impressive at much lower values. My   investment thesis   that the stock wasn't still priced for the EPS boost still stands. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review this disclaimer page for more details.   

Apple finally announced the actual repatriation tax hit at $38 billion. The company plans to spend aggressively on capital expenditures and hiring in the U.S., squashing any likely big-scale acquisition. Investors should expect a standard 10% dividend hike each of the next two fiscal years in line with historical dividend hikes. Any shift from the standard dividend hike and capital return plans would actually signal a negative view of the future. Despite all of the recent debates regarding the repatriation tax including in the comments section of my   previous article   and forecasts of a ramped up capital return plan,   Apple   ( AAPL ) has so far not made any statements regarding changing existing plans. For numerous reasons, investors should want the tech giant to keep trucking along with the existing capital return plans and stick to a 'normal' dividend hike. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review...