Out Fox The $treet

As chronicled a few weeks back, OCZ Technology Group Inc (OCZ) is one of the most drama-ridden stocks in the market. The stock has been whipped around by numerous buyout rumors and a wild pattern of high growth followed by disappointing earnings. After the close on Wednesday, the company again reported disappointing preliminary revenue numbers, even as demand soars. That was the bad news and likely what the market will focus on, with the stock trading down 20% in the after-markets. The good news that the market will ignore is that the guidance miss is due to the lack of NAND supply from third party suppliers. Bookings again exceeded expectations and that should ultimately guide the stock price. The shortage of NAND appears related to Apple (AAPL) buying up all available supplies for either the iPad-Mini or the iPhone5. This caused suppliers to cut capacity for the 2xnm MLC NAND used in the Vertex and Agility line of products. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: L...

Anybody following the stock or the solid-state drives (SSDs) industry has probably seen the drama with OCZ Technology (OCZ) over the last few weeks. Several influential journalists reported that a deal was done with Seagate Technology (STX) for over $1B, valuing the stock at close to $15. Unfortunately weeks have passed without a deal announcement and the stock that shot up to over $8 in after market trading on July 27th now trades under $5. On top of that news, the CFO announced his retirement last week adding more fuel to the speculation fire. Not to mention the annual shareholders meeting took place on Monday eliciting investor hopes of noteworthy news. At times like this, investors need to understand what they own with a clear defined plan for exciting the position. A smart investor either took advantage of the price spike or is now loading up shares as the rumors fade. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Dsiclosure: Long OCZ. Please review the disclaimer page for more de...

Anybody following OCZ Tech (OCZ) knows that rumors have been swirling that Seagate Tech (STX) has made a bid to buy the company for over $1B. Well the rumors suggested that the deal would be announced on Monday during the Q212 earnings report for Seagate. After the close on Monday, Seagate reported disappointing numbers that sent its stock down some 8%. Unfortunately though for OCZ shareholders no mention was made of the OCZ buyout. Not even a question from analysts regarding the rumors. Not to much of a surprise but the stock plummeted during the regular session and even further after hours. Closing at $5.36 most of the rumor gains were gone. Then the story gets strange. While the CEO was busy claiming no real need for buying technology, the CFO trots out late and tells Reuters the desire to purchase a SSD company. Within a span of hours, the company appears happy with the in-house program to suddenly needing external sources. Heck, even Piper Jaffray came out after the conf...

Or at least OCZ Technology (OCZ) dropped due to missing the headline numbers. The stock dropped 9% in the regular session and another 9% in after hours to trade below $5. The company reported Q113 numbers after the close that generally missed expectations. The guidance though was maintained. The provider of high-performance solid-state drives (SSDs) for computing devices and systems still reported 54% revenue growth even if it slightly missed expectations at $115M What the market has missed is that the company reported record bookings of $140M or some $26M above the reported revenues. The company typically has minimal bookings that push over to the next quarter. The main culprit this quarter being a power regulator shortage. Otherwise, revenue for Q113 would've been closer to $140M and earnings undoubtedly would've smashed estimates. On top of the parts issue, the company increased marketing expenses in order to capture the bookings revenue that ended up not shipping. S...

Back in February, OCZ Technology (OCZ) did a secondary at $9 to raise $110M. The company had recently faced low cash balances so analysts and investors a like were concerned about the need to raise funds. The company was always clear about the need to raise major funds would only occur if it signed a major customer. Fast forward to the Q412 earnings report last night and the company guided to nearly $700M in revenue for fiscal 2013 compared to estimates around $513M. Based on that, one would think the stock has now soared way beyond the secondary price.  Well that person would be mistaken. The stock has now plunged 50% from the highs around $10 shortly after the secondary while all but confirming a deal with the much speculated Facebook (FB) .  The company clearly stated in the conference call that it had a deal with a leading social media company not to mention numerous other data center customers. No to mention that Yahoo (YHOO) had forecasted a 3x increase in ...

At one point today, OCZ Technology (OCZ) was down more than 5% to below $7 before a massive end of day rally. This stock has been a major conundrum since completing a secondary at $9 to raise over $100M. The stock even hit $10 around that time. Even worse is that the market has been consistently rising during that period. Management had previously hinted that if the company needed to raise cash it would be due to significant orders that required more cash for operations. Absent any big deal announcement since the secondary, it appears that investors have become disenchanted with this story. Analysts expect the company to have wrapped up nearly 100% revenue growth for FY'12 and follow that up with a 35% revenue growth for FY'13. The stock currently trades at a 13 forward PE though the 5 year growth rate is over 22%. That number even appears low considering the growth rate. On the technicals, the stock closed right around the 200ma. Being so oversold, the stock is due for ...

Today's news on the closing of the secondary and the exercise of over-allotments shouldn't be that big of a deal, but the stock is down 5.5% now. Hard to tell the reason for the selloff other than maybe the over-allotment was partially exercised. This is possibly seen as a negative in the market though I don't see this move as surprising. The secondary was for $9 and the stock is selling below those levels. Why take that deal when the open market is cheaper? OCZ Tech (OCZ) remains a leading provider of high-performance solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices and systems that remains in very high demand. The company will presumably use these funds to land a very large customer though the company has yet to verify or deny. That might also be the cause of the selloff. Traders might be fleeing the stock considering the secondary has been closed and the speculated major deal has not been announced. Sure appears like a buy the dip scenario though our models are ...

Though Fusion-io (FIO) reported earnings that slightly beat estimates and revenue that handily beat estimates, the stock sold off 13% after hours. With 170% year-over-year revenue growth, the report made clear that the move to flash memory storage was gaining steam. Fusion-io provided revenue guidance for the next quarter that easily surpassed the Capital IQ analyst consensus, but that might also be weighing on the stock as investors tend to prefer more growth than basically flat sequential guidance. Read full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long OCZ. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Note: This was my submitted title to Seeking Alpha, but alas the editor changed it. Must not be a fan of Storage Wars . As cloud computing (data centers), smartphones, and tablets continue stratospheric growth rates, the market needs faster, more reliable, and less power-hungry storage options. The digital junk has to be stored somewhere, and these new devices don't have the storage capabilities of traditional desktop computers loaded with large hard disk drives. Enter the SSDs, or Solid State Drives (read The SSD Revolution for a good overview of the sector) which provides a better alternative than traditional hard drives, though at a higher cost. Between analysts raising estimates for Fusion-IO (FIO) and OCZ Technology (OCZ) upping estimates for Q4, the sector has startling growth potential for 2012. Numbers that caught me by surprise. Read full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.