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Showing posts from June, 2022

Shopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work

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  Shopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week. The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward. The stock valuation is far more reasonable at 4x EV/S, but the retail shakeout needs to end before investing here. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Shopify ( NYSE: SHOP ) shareholders found out the hard way this week that stock splits aren't much more than financial gimmicks. After several large cap tech companies successfully split shares in the last year, the e-commerce platform  executed a large share split and the stock has continued on to recent lows. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Shopify until the retail shakeout ends, but the stock valuation is definitely more appealing here with the stock down over 80% from the highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please

United Airlines: Still Ready For Takeoff

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  United Airlines is poised to ride the trends for higher passenger traffic to larger profits. The stock is priced for another virus shutdown while even analysts that missed the recent demand rebound predict a $7+ EPS in 2023. United should double by 2025 on just reaching half their pre-tax margin target. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While the market fluctuates on travel stocks due to soaring fuel prices and recession fears,  United Airlines Holdings  ( NASDAQ: UAL ) still appears poised for substantial profit growth in the years ahead. The airlines are  again in the news for  cutting flights  due to staffing shortages during the peak summer flying months. Regardless, my investment thesis remains ultra Bullish on the stock following the big dip despite the ongoing logic that traffic demand is set to ultimately top 2019 levels along with historical trends. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha

Carnival: Positive Trajectory

  Carnival reported FQ2'22 results showing a positive trajectory in the business, though far from perfect. The cruise line indicated strong booking trends for 2023 as consumers are able to plan for trips without worries of travel restrictions. The stock is cheap at $10 with normalized earnings at $3 per share, as debt is repaid and interest expenses are cut. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   In no huge surprise,  Carnival Corp.  ( NYSE: CCL ) reported a quarter of  improving results . The largest cruise line didn't report a perfect quarter, but the company and the sector continues to head back  to more normal times in the travel and leisure sector. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the stock after the dip back towards the COVID lows, which was ill-timed considering the dynamics of the business are far improved now. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position ment

Roblox: Washed Out

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Roblox reported another month of weak monthly metrics, but DAUs rose 17% YoY. The company continues to face declining bookings with May numbers down up to 24%, though slightly better than April. The stock appears washed out after rallying twice on weak corporate news. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   In no huge surprise,  Roblox  ( NYSE: RBLX ) reported  May monthly metrics  and the numbers didn't impress one bit. As gamers turn to travel and leisure events, the market has known for a while now that  numbers over the Summer will likely be weak. My  investment thesis  is turning more Bullish on the stock with the solid bounce on more weak monthly bookings totals. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - June 23 The stock was indeed washed out last week helped by Truist Securities cutting the price t

Charlotte's Web: No Traction Yet

  Charlotte's Web reported the weakest quarter in years due in part to the wildfires in Colorado. The CBD company completed a restructuring in January that actually has business crucially cash flow breakeven. The stock is cheap once the FDA regulatory issue resolves, but the company won't gain any traction until this occurs and the timing is unknown. Another quarter has passed and Charlotte's Web Holdings ( OTCQX:CWBHF ) is still struggling to gain any traction in the CBD space. The company had a lot of corporation disruptions impacting Q1'22 results, but the major issue remains  the lack of regulations by the FDA. My  investment thesis  continues to remain very Bullish about the long-term potential of the CBD market leader, but the stock will remain volatile until the regulatory issue is resolved. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long CWBHF. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Twitter: At A Crossroads

  Musk continues to file complaints regarding the Twitter spam account issue causing fears the deal won't close at the agreed upon price. The company continues to fight back on the bot issue with the data suggesting the parties are talking about different issues. The stock has immediate 30% upside on the unlikely close of the deal, or a larger user base to support higher stock prices when the economy improves. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As Elon Musk continues to complain about the bots on  Twitter  ( NYSE: TWTR ), the stock is at a crossroads. The deal offers 31% upside from here for shareholders holding out for the offer price, but Twitter likely faces  considerable downside on a deal termination. My  investment thesis  continues to remain Bullish on the stock long term after a correction on the deal cancelation, if investors don't make a quick gain on a surprise close of the deal at

SoFi: Misplaced Fears

  SoFi has rallied sharply from lows below $5, but the stock shouldn't have traded this low. The fintech specializes in refinancing student loans and the market has misplaced fears over student debt forgiveness. The stock only trades at 3x '23 revenue targets with the end to the student debt moratorium providing upside to sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As with a lot of fintechs,  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) bounced strongly off the May panic lows. Whether due to recession or credit fears, the stock market no longer views the growth story in the same  positive light despite a business model that remains strong. My  investment thesis  remains very Bullish on this stock as the major prescribed weakness due to student loan forgiveness concerns remains very misplaced. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaime

Ambarella: Not Ready To Roll, Just Yet

  Ambarella cut guidance for current quarter revenues by a sizable amount due to supply chain issues. The chip company continues to have a large order book in the auto tech sector. The stock isn't exceptionally cheap at 7x FY24 sales, but the auto tech market potential makes Ambarella a buy. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While  Ambarella  ( NASDAQ: AMBA ) was ready to roll last quarter, the Chinese covid lockdowns further dented supplies and demand. The computer vision company still has a massive auto order book warranting investor interest as the  stock dips. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock, but the summer months will remain rocky due to supply chain issues and extended auto tech orders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.